The Players Championship 2026: Dave Tindall's each-way picks from 22/1 to 40/1

• 22/123.00 Ludvig Aberg is coming bang into form

• 40/141.00 Jake Knapp is 1st in Scoring Average this season

• 25/126.00 Viktor Hovland can make his mark here again

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Introduction to The Players Championship

Check out an elite player's record at the US Masters and you'll often find a string of top fives, 10s and 20s.

Do the same at The Players Championship and you'll unearth a smorgasbord of results: top 10s often mixing in with missed cuts.

TPC Sawgrass, designed by Pete Dye, is a tough place to crack. One year it may yield to you, the next it will punch you in the face.

In truth, those extremes often play out over a single round, the island green at 17 a microcosm of the fragile lines separating a solid par/birdie and a watery nightmare.

But what we do know is that it's best to go there with a bank of current form based on strong tee-to-green play, especially with the irons.

That, surprisingly, isn't good news for favourite Scottie Scheffler, who has recorded negative Strokes Gained: Approach stats on his last two starts.

Add in Rory McIlroy admitting the back twinges that forced him to pull out of last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational at halfway haven't gone away as fast as he'd hoped and there are doubts at the very front of the market.

That said, it's still the place to look as most winners here have been near the top of the world rankings.

The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass is a par 72 measuring 7,352 yards and this year the rough is up a little to 4.5 inches, putting an extra emphasis on driving accuracy.

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Bet 1: Ludvig Aberg @ 22/123.00

I'll admit, there are several players I like whose odds have been cut to now rather off-putting prices due to the usual Monday scramble which is heightened for a big, big event like this.

But to counteract that, delaying a little gives us the benefit of being able to match the weather forecast with tee-times which were released on Monday night.

And while accepting that weather conditions can change, right now the winds look strongest on Thursday afternoon. Not only that they drop on Friday afternoon.

In other words, the early/late tee-timers look to have a definite edge. 

This is actually very helpful for me. I only get three picks in these previews (I'm almost always glad of that; it keeps things trim) but was struggling to separate six players. 

It so happens that the draw has put three in each wave and one of those given an early Thursday start is Ludvig Aberg (08:40 from the 10th).

The Swede fits the bill as a world-class player coming into form.

After a rather patchy start to the campaign that produced another illness-based WD, Aberg first started his forward move by overcoming an opening 75 at Pebble with rounds of 69-66-67.

That gave him 37th spot and he improved to 20th with another strong final 54 holes in The Genesis Invitational at Riviera.

Then came the big jump as he secured third place in last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational.

When we talk about a player rounding into form, it's often based just on their finishing position.

But if we look at Aberg's numbers he's improved in every single Strokes Gained category during that run from Pebble to Riviera to Bay Hill.

Approach: 41-24-3. Off The Tee: 52-28-5. Putting: 33-29-23. You get the idea.

Overall, he's registered positive numbers in every SG department in both his last two events and also note that he was 2nd for Driving Accuracy at Bay Hill. That's another big tick for this week.

Current form trumps course form here in my book but I'll certainly lean into good play at Sawgrass as supporting evidence.

Aberg has that via an eighth place on debut in 2024 when he shot three laps of 67 and a 73. Last year's missed cut is of no concern. Everyone has them.

The Ryder Cup star also played in the Junior Players at Sawgrass several years back and said that had helped him.

A cool character - and you need that on this demanding course where setbacks occur - back Aberg at 22/123.00 in the 8 Place market.

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Bet 2: Jake Knapp @ 40/141.00 

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy ranked 1st and 2nd in Scoring Average in 2025.

In 2024 it was Scheffler and Xander Schauffele occupying the top two spots. They shared three of the four majors that year.

In 2026, McIlroy is ranked 2nd and Scheffler 3rd so who is No. 1 in Scoring Average? The answer is Jake Knapp.

The 31-year-old from California has come of age in the last few seasons after previously playing on the Canadian Tour.

He secured a first PGA Tour win in 2024 when landing the Mexico Open and this year he's taken it to a whole new level by recording finishes of 11-5-8-8-6 in his first five events.

He's also 4th for SG: Putting, 11th Tee To Green, 27th Off The Tee and 1st for Par 5 Scoring Average (he has four to go at here).

While he hasn't yet featured in a major, Knapp has finished eighth (Pebble) and sixth (Genesis) in his last two Signature Series Events so he can thrive among the PGA Tour's very best.

And - here's the clincher - that fantastic current form is backed up by some good previous experiences here. Knapp was 45th on debut in 2024 and then improved to 12th last year (eighth with a round to play).

Speaking during the 2025 event, Knapp  said: "I think the course fits my eye in the sense that I think it narrows my focus, which I really like.

"And same thing with second shots, you have to be really precise so I feel like when I'm hitting it well I want the second shots to be as tough as possible."

Knapp, who has also shown strong Florida form with sixth and fourth in his last two starts at the Cognizant Classic, pulled out of the Arnold Palmer last week with illness.

That's a minor concern - it's better than an injury - and the positive spin is that he's nicely rested after a busy start to the season.

The 40/141.00 for the guy at the top of the Scoring Average charts will do for me. He's a morning starter at 09:16 from the 10th.

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Bet 3: Viktor Hovland @ 25/126.00

While I'm tempted to look at bigger prices, the history of this event suggests getting another superstar on board is the best way to go if trying to land the jackpot.

Viktor Hovland is already a seven-time PGA Tour winner at the age of 28 and that includes capturing the FedEx Cup in 2023 when he landed the final two events: the BMW Championship and Tour Championship.

His most recent victory came last year and, significantly, it was in Florida when - despite being out of form - he scored a one-shot win in tough conditions at the Valspar (his 11-under beat Justin Thomas by a shot).

As for TPC Sawgrass, the Norwegian - like many - has a rather feast or famine record but ninth in 2022 and third in 2023 show he can excel here.

For starters, it helps that he's a big fan of Pete Dye. "I think he's just a genius, and I really like a lot of his golf courses."

As for this particular one, Hovland once said: "I feel like I play this golf course pretty well. It's a ball-striker's course, especially with how much water is out there. I feel like it sets up well for me."

In Florida, Hovland has six top 10s in his last 12 starts there and that includes a win, a second and two thirds.

That doesn't include last week's tied 13th at Bay Hill which looks good prep and comes just three starts on from a top 10 in Phoenix. 

At the Arnold Palmer, he again gained strokes on approach (13th for SGA this season) and finishing 6th for SG: Putting on those bermuda greens is another plus. "Swinging it well with the irons," said Hovland after a Saturday 67.

Although he's not totally happy with his driving, at least he's keeping it in play as shown by Driving Accuracy ranks of 9th (Riviera) and 16th (Bay Hill) in his last two outings.

Hovland knows how to finish tournaments off and if he gets in position here on the back nine on Sunday I'd be very happy to have him batting for me.

The 25/126.00 shot tees off at 09:04 from No.10.

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Now read Steve Rawlings' in-depth Players Championship preview

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*You can follow me on Twitter @DaveTindallgolf

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