The Players Championship 2026: Schauffele chanced at Sawgrass at 33/1

• Good event for outsiders and overseas players

• Strong current form looks key

• Third round leaders worth opposing

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What happened last week? Brilliant Bhatia catches luckless Berger at Bay Hill

Pre-event 25/126.00 chance, Ricky Castillo, was trading at around 5/23.50 when he led the Puerto Rico Open by stroke and he took control of the event when he eagled the sixth and birdied the seventh.

The 36-hole leader, Chandler Blanchet, rallied nicely on Sunday after his disappointing two-over-par 74 in round three and he closed the gap to just a stroke when he birdied the 72^nd hole to post a five-under-par 67 but Castillo kept his calm to par the last and win by one.

In what was largely a drama-free finish, Castillo was the only player to go odds-on but the 18-year-old phenom, Blades Brown, was matched at evens when he led with six to play before making a triple-bogey at the and 13^th and there was drama aplenty at the week's other two events.

Over on the DP World Tour, the 54-hole leader at the Joburg Open, Hennie Du Plessis, was matched at as low as 1.21/5 when he led by three at the turn in round four, but he lost his way badly on the back-nine to eventually finish fourth.

Like Blanchett in Puerto Rico, the halfway leader, Brandon Robinson-Thompson, rallied in round four and he too was matched at long odds-on, hitting a low of 1.42/5, before he played his last four holes in two-over-par, painfully three-putting the last.

Casey Jarvis, who was attempting to win his third event in as many weeks, was matched at a low of 1.774/5, but like Robinson-Thomspon, he too finished tamely, playing the last four holes in one-over.

Jarvis hit a quite brilliant approach to the last, but he missed his birdie putt leaving the 2022 winner, Dan Bradbury, playing in the final group, to sneak up the rails and take the title with this quite brilliant up-and-down after an over-hit approach to the green.

An up and down was needed on the 18th green to seal his third DP World Tour title and his second Joburg Open title...

Dan Bradbury stepped up and did this #JoburgOpen pic.twitter.com/FGwOyxnVpB

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) March 8, 2026

Having begun the final round trailing by two and trading at 6/17.00, Bradbury, who was generally a 44.043/1 chance before the off, was matched at as high as 200.0199/1 in running on Sunday after a slow start to the final round but he played his last 10 holes in five-under-par to win by one.

Pre-event 230.0229/1 chance, Daniel Berger, led the week's main event, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, from the get-go after a 63 on Thursday saw him three clear after round one.

He was an 11/82.38 chance when he led by five at halfway and he was matched at as low as 1.68/13 during the third round.

Dangerous weather caused a suspension in play on Saturday and Berger was trading at a shade of odds-on when play ended for the day but after birdying the 16^th on Sunday morning, he bogeyed the last and when Bhatia's birdie putt eventually dropped, after several seconds, Berger went into round four leading Akshay Bhatia by just a stroke.

Berger was trading at around 2.77/4 with 18 to play and Bhatia was a 5/23.50 shot but it soon looked like Bhatia had blown his chance, playing the front nine in two-over-par to trail Berger by five.

With a lead of four strokes over the field, Berger was matched at as low as 1.162/13 and he did very little wrong on the back nine.

He dropped a shot at the par four 13^th but he birdied both the par fives (the 12^th and the 16^th) but after his bogey at nine, Bhatia bounced back in style, birdying four in-a-row from the 10^th.

A bogey at 15 saw Bhatia slip to two back but he closed the gap to just one when he bettered Berger's birdie with an eagle three at 16 after a quite remarkable approach shot and when poor Berger bogeyed the par three 17^th, the pair were tied with one hole to play.

Akshay NEARLY jars it @APInv

3 feet left for eagle to tie pic.twitter.com/g6ON7pxaoP

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 8, 2026

We hadn't witnessed a playoff at Bay Hill since 1999, so we were due one, but after Berger missed the fairway off the tee and was forced to lay up on the 72^nd hole, Bhatia looked highly likely to win in regulation.

Having been caught for the first time all week on the 71^st hole, Berger looked in big trouble, but he stepped up to the plate to hole his par save from 13 ½ feet and we were into extra time for the first time at Bay Hill in 27 years.

Berger missed the fairway right in regulation and he missed it left in extra time, but he was unable to save himself this time, three-putting for bogey from over 100 feet, and Bhatia went on to par the hole for the win.

Bhatia had been a 100.099/1 chance before the off, but he was matched at as high as 340.0339/1 after he trailed by seven on day one and he hit a high of 38.037/1 in regulation play on Sunday.

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Players Championship Tournament History

Originally known as the Tournament Players Championship, the fifth Signature Event of the year - the Players Championship - began life in 1974 when Jack Nicklaus won the first of his three titles.

He's still the only man to achieve that feat but six other players have won the tournament twice - Fred Couples, Steve Elkington, Hal Sutton, Davis Love, Tiger Woods and Scottie Scheffler.

Universally referred to as the fifth major, the Players Championship is one of the most prestigious tournaments staged throughout the year and this is the 52^nd edition. 

Scheffler was the first man to defend the title two years ago ago, but we have to go back 11 years to the previous occasion that a defending champion finished inside the top 15, when Adam Scott finished eighth, and Scottie only finished 20^th when attempting the threepeat 12 months ago.

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Venue

TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

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Course Details

Par 72 -7,352 yards 
Stroke Average in 2025 - 72.39

Constructed in 1980, specifically for the purpose of hosting this event, the Stadium Course at Sawgrass has been the tournament's venue since 1982. It's a Bermuda-grass Pete Dye design and it's one of the most renowned courses in the world.

With its dramatic island green, the par 3 17th is one of the most iconic holes in golf.

Described as a balanced course, with dog-legged holes going both ways and holes routed so that no two consecutive holes ever play in the same direction, it's a true test that doesn't tend to favour any one type of player.

In 2006, just before the event moved to its May slot (which it occupied for 12 years before switching back to March in 2019) all the tees, fairways and greens were stripped and new drainage, irrigation, and sub-air systems were installed. The changes meant that the firmness of the smaller than average sized greens can be controlled in any weather conditions, and they're usually set to run at around 13 on the Stimpmeter.

The course underwent a further renovation after the 2016 renewal and the yardage was reduced slightly as a result. All the greens were changed from mini verde to TifEagle Bermudagrass, holes one, four, eight, nine, 11, 13 and 14 underwent modifications to their greens, to better absorb wear and tear, and in some cases, to increase the number of available pin positions.

A new back tee was built on the par five ninth before the in 2023, stretching the hole to 602 yards, and there were further changes to the layout before last year's edition.

The yardages were altered on all but two holes, the 15^th and the 18^th, with 77 yards in total being added in total, and a new tree was planted on the par four sixth.

The new tree had the desired effect as it went from being one of easiest holes on the course, ranking 13^th and averaging 3.95 in 2024 to the 5^th hardest hole, averaging 4.12.

Once again, the four par fives were the easiest on the layout, and the last one encountered, the 16^th, which is consistently the easiest hole on the course, may play even easier this year as a major limb on the iconic tree in front of the green has gone due to decay.

The only other change to the layout ahead of this year's renewal is a strategically placed new bunker to the right of the fairway on the drivable par four 12^th.

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Weather Forecast

*Four Day Forecast in Real Time shown below

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, beginning at 11:30 (UK and Ireland) on Thursday.

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Last 10 Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2025 - Rory McIlroy -12 18.017/1 (playoff)
2024 - Scottie Scheffler -20 7.06/1
2023 - Scottie Scheffler -17 13.012/1
2022 - Cam Smith -13 42.041/1
2021 - Justin Thomas -14 23.022/1
2020 - Tournament cancelled after round one (COVID)
2019 - Rory McIlroy -16 17.016/1
2018 - Webb Simpson -18 80.079/1
2017 - Si Woo Kim -10 900.0899/1
2016 - Jason Day -15 14.013/1
2015 - Rickie Fowler -7 65.064/1 (playoff)

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What Will it Take to Win the Players Championship?

Sawgrass allows for all player types to prosper so the Players is a magnificent but very open tournament as a rule.

Scheffler ranked 14^th for Driving Distance two years ago but he hit it further than anyone else off the tee in 2023, as did Jason Day back in 2016. In contrast, the 2018 winner, Webb Simpson, ranked only 71^st DD.

Simpson prospered because he found more fairways than anyone else whereas Day only ranked 54^th for DA and the 2019 result demonstrated perfectly how different long games can fare equally well here...

Rory McIlroy won the event ranking 5^th for DD and 49^th for DA, with the veteran, Jim Furyk, finishing second ranking only 72^nd for DD but third for DA.

In the decade between 2005 and 2014, the ten winners had an average Greens In Regulation ranking of just 7.5 and the front four two years ago ranked third, first, fourth and 13^th for GIR but recent history suggests you don't necessarily have to hit green after green provided you scramble impeccably instead.

Last year's playoff protagonists, Rory McIlroy and J.J Spaun, ranked 39^th and sixth for GIR and seventh and fifth for Scrambling.

The 2022 winner, Cam Smith, ranked only 52^nd for GIR and the three victors before Simpson, eight years ago, ranked 51^st, 15^th and 37^th so it's not absolutely imperative to find greens with consistency, if your recovery game around the dancefloors is on point.

The smaller than average greens are tough to hit with regularity, so most winners scramble well around Sawgrass.

Cam Smith, in 2022, was the first winner of the Players to hit less than 50% of the fairways throughout the week (43%!) but he gained and incredible 11.5 strokes with the putter and his 45 one-putts throughout the week beat the record of any previous Players winner by seven!

Unsurprisingly, Smith ranked first for both Putting Average and Strokes Gained: Putting, but that's not the norm around here and players that aren't renowned for flatstick prowess can and do win.

Over the last six years, starting with Rory McIlroy's first victory in 2019, the other five winners (although often very good putters) have ranked only ninth, 14^th, 18^th, 34^th and 14^th for Putting Average and 45^th, 42^nd, 47^th, 37^th and 10^th for Strokes Gained: Putting.  And Spaun, who lost the playoff last year, ranked only 25^th and 36^th for those two metrics.

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Is There an Angle In?

The RBC Heritage, the Travelers Championship, and the Zurich Classic of New Orleans (now a pairs event) are events that are also played on Pete Dye-designed courses and two of the four rounds at The American Express are played around the Pete Dye Stadium Course.

Other Pete Dye tracks to consider are Austin Country Club, which hosted the last six editions of the now defunct WGC-Match Play, Whistling Straits, which staged the USPGA Championship in 2004, 2010 and 2015, Crooked Stick, which hosted the 2012 and 2016 BMW Championships and the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island, which hosted both the 2012 and 2021 US PGA Championships but the course that appears to correlate best with Sawgrass was designed by Donald Ross.

McIlroy and Scheffler have never played Sedgefield Country Club, which hosts the Wyndham Championship, but two of the last eight Players Champions, Webb Simpson and Si Woo Kim, have both won the Wyndham Championship and four other Players Champions, Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Davis Love III and K.J Choi have also won both events.

The Wyndham only returned to Sedgefield in 2008, after a break of more than 30 years, but we've now seen six men win at both venues recently and both the 2010 and 2014 Players champions, Tim Clark and Adam Scott, have both finished second at Sedgefield.

The 2023 Wyndham winner, Lucas Glover, has finished third here and the 2021 Wyndham winner, Kevin Kisner, was beaten in a playoff here in 2015. Kisner was also fourth four years ago, Luke Donald has finished runner-up at both venues, and last year's beaten playoff protagonist, Spaun, was third at Sedgefield in 2024.

And last year's sixth, 1000.0999/1 chance, Bud Cauley, has only ever finished inside the top three places on the PGA Tour three times but he finished third at Sedgefield way back in 2012.  

And he finished third behind Garcia and Tim Clark - two former winners at Sawgrass!

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Strong current form looks key

Sawgrass isn't somewhere that out of form players suddenly find something to win and 13 of the last 15 winners have finished tied fourth or better in at least one event earlier in the calendar year.

The last four winners, McIlroy, Scheffler (twice) and Cam Smith, had won earlier in the year and 33^rd (Smith three years ago) is the worst any of the last 14 winners have finished in their previous start.

Last week's venue, Bay Hill, is a tough Floridian track too so it makes sense that a good week there is a solid pointer.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

First-timers don't have a great record at Sawgrass. In 44 previous renewals here, only two debutants have won - Hal Sutton in 1983 and huge outsider, Craig Perks in 2002.

Si Woo Kim, who was the youngest ever winner of the event at 21, was only playing the event for a second time nine years ago, having finished 23^rd in 2016, and Scheffler had only been here twice before when winning the first of his two titles in 2023.

Scheffler missed the cut on debut in 2021 before finishing tied for 55^th in 2022 but the four winners before him, Smith, Justin Thomas, McIlroy and Simpson, and the three winners before Kim, all give us a nice indication of the sort of course form portfolios that are typical here.

Cam Smith 2022 - MC-MC-56-17
Justin Thomas 2021 - 24-3-MC-11-35
Rory McIlroy 2019 - MC-MC-MC-8-6-8-12-35-MC
Webb Simpson 2018 - MC-MC-69-MC-15-MC-66-16
Jason Day 2016 - MC-6-MC-19-MC
Rickie Fowler 2015 - MC-MC-2-MC-MC
Martin Kaymer 2014 - 55-34-19-15-43

That could be extended further, as the vast majority of winners have lots of appearances and plenty of missed cuts.

It's a difficult event to predict with all sorts of types winning and course specialists are few and far between, but Scheffler was an unusual winner three years ago as there's nearly always at least one decent performance at the track in the portfolio.

The 15 winners before 2023 had all finished at least 23^rd or better here previously.

The last six winners have been well-fancied, and Simpson was fairly well-backed in 2018. He opened up at 110.0109/1 on the Monday but went off at around 80.079/1 and Jason Day was well-fancied a decade ago too, but the list of past champions contains plenty of shock winners and Spaun, who was matched at 2.01/1, was a 160.0159/1 chance 12 months ago, so don't be afraid to back an outsider or two as they have a fair record.

Kim was matched at 1000.0999/1 before the off nine years ago, I can't imagine too many picked out the likes of Craig Perks or Fred Funk and Stephen Ames went off at 170.0169/1 20 years ago.

Fowler wasn't exactly well-fancied 11 years ago, as he was matched at 70.069/1 before the off, and Kaymer was matched at a triple-figure price 12 years ago.

Wily old veterans, who know how to plot their way around Sawgrass, tend to do well here. Fred Funk was no spring chicken when he won in 2005 and when 40-year-old K.J Choi won in 2011, he beat 44-year-old David Toms in the playoff. 

Americans won the first 13 editions of the Players Championship and for a long time Americans, and to a lesser extent the Aussies, dominated the event but that's changed somewhat in recent years with Americans only winning ten of the last 23 renewals.

Outsiders and overseas players tend to do well here.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2025 - Rory McIlroy tied 5^th - trailing by four 8.27/1
2024 - Scottie Scheffler tied 6^th - trailing by five 13.012/1
2023 - Scottie Scheffler led by two strokes 1.4740/85
2022 - Cameron Smith tied 2nd - trailing by two 9.417/2
2021 - Justin Thomas tied third - trailing by three 6.611/2
2019 - Rory McIlroy tied 2nd - trailing by one 3.613/5
2018 - Webb Simpson led by seven strokes 1.171/6
2017 - Si Woo Kim solo 4th - trailing by two 17.016/1
2016 - Jason Day led by four strokes 1.374/11
2015 - Rickie Fowler tied 11th- trailing by three 20.019/1

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Is the draw bias consigned to the bin?

Prior to last 2024, only two of the previous 17 winners (Tiger Woods in 2013 and Martin Kaymer in 2014) had been drawn to kick the event off on Thursday afternoon and concentrating on the early starters on day one has been the way to go here but things have changed over the last two years.

The AM-PM side of the draw was advantaged to the tune of 2.18 strokes in 2023 when Scheffler won the first of his two titles but over the last two years, a PM-AM draw has been preferable.

When successfully defending the title two years ago, Scheffler was drawn in the afternoon on day one and that side of the draw averaged 0.97 of a stroke less than those drawn AM-PM. The bias was even more pronounced last year, with the PM-AM side averaging 1.69 strokes better than those drawn AM-PM.

Both playoff protagonists began the week on Thursday afternoon and Tom Hoge, who finished tied for third, was the only player who teed it up on Thursday morning to finish the week inside the top five.

Whether that's just a blip or a sign of what's to come is debatable but it is explainable.

The Players moved from May to March in 2021and that has made the early starts harder. With thick four inch rough and cooler temperatures, finding fairways is more important and it's been harder to get off to a great start on Thursday morning.

Those playing in the afternoon are now playing in warmer weather, with drier dew-free rough less of an issue.

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In-Play Tactics

Although Rory was four back with 18 to play last year and Scheffler came from as far back with a round to go as any Sawgrass winner this century (five strokes) when he defended two years ago, both men were inside the top six all week long and Scheffler was up with the pace throughout three years ago too.

He sat tied fifth and just four off the lead after round one, and he sat second and two back at halfway before leading by two with 18 to play and that was a far more typical route to victory than the previous two winners.

Having sat tied for 15^th after round one four years ago, Cam Smith was still only tied for 11^th at halfway and trading at 18.017/1 before moving into a tie for second after 54 holes.

Most winners are closer to the pace throughout than that but the 2021 winner, Justin Thomas, started even slower.

Thomas was matched at a high of 210.0209/1 in-running before a rally on the back nine in round two saw him go into the weekend tied for 22^nd and trailing by seven strokes but his performance was very unusual.

A fast start is extremely beneficial here and three of the last 11 winners - Simpson, Day and Kaymer - have won wire-to-wire.

In the previous 51 renewals, as many as 15 winners have been leading after round one, 24 have been positioned inside the top-three after day one and 22 winners have either been leading or only one off the pace after round one.

Interestingly, 15 first round leaders have gone on to victory but only 21 third round leaders have won so being out in front through 54-holes isn't necessarily a big plus.

Even including the three wire-to-wire winners (who shot final rounds of 71, 71 and 73 to hang on), since Elkington won the second of his two titles back in 1997 by seven after a 69 on Sunday, as many as 32 players have led or co-led through 54 holes and only three of them (Scheffler in 2023, Stephen Ames in 2006 and the unfortunate Anirban Lahiri in 2022) have shot a round in the 60s on Sunday.

Ames fired a 67 to win by six having led by one 20 years ago and Scheffler moved from two clear to five in front with a 69 in round four three years ago. 

In contrast, Lahiri, who also fired 69 in round four, became only the third leader or co-leader to break 70 in 25 years and he was the first to do so and not win since D.A Weibring in 1985.

The last two 54-hole leaders, Spaun and Xander Schauffele, finished second after shooting 70 and 71 respectively, so the last four third round leaders have definitely bucked the trend given the 18 third round leaders/co/leaders in-between 2006 and 2022 were a combined 51-over-par, with a scoring average of 75!

Up with the pace is definitely the place to be but you're clearly there to be shot at if you're leading at Sawgrass through 54 holes.

If you are planning to trade in-running, the first two holes are straightforward, but it gets tough after that and the scoring section (if it can be classed as one) is between holes nine and 12.

The final hole on the back nine is a par five that averaged 4.78 last year, the 11^th is another par five (also averaged 4.78 last time) and the drivable 12^th averaged below par (3.87), although it will be interesting to see if the new bunker there will make a difference.

It's a grind all the way in after that though with the only respite coming at the par five 16^th which was the easiest hole on the course last year (4.67).

The famous 17^th averaged 3.11 last year and was the sixth hardest on the course and the 18^th played the second toughest, averaging 4.26. The par four 14^th, which averaged 4.28, ranked as the hardest hole for the second year in-a-row last year.

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Schauffele the sole selection

With the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, seemingly out of form, especially on the greens, and Rory McIlroy not a certain runner after he withdrew last week, this looks like a chance for someone outside the world's top two.

The world number 10, Xander Schauffele, who was up to number two in the world at the end of 2024, finished a disappointing 24^th in the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week but he'd finished seventh in his penultimate start, in the Genesis Invitational at Riviera. and he looks a juicy price at odds in excess of 30.029/1.

The two-time major winner finished second at Sawgrass on debut in 2018 and second again two years ago behind Scheffler so we know he can play the venue.

Suffering with a rib injury, Schauffele went through a bit of a slump after his two major victories in 2024, but he won again in Japan in October, at the Baycurrent Classic, and it may not be long before he wins again on the PGA Tour.

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