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Course info, first round leader, outsiders to back at over 100/1101.00
3M Open tips and predictions
Steve Rawlings: "I thought I'd be swerving everyone towards the head of the market given the history of the event, but I couldn't resist a small play on Jake Knapp at 40/1 in the Sportsbook's Winner market.
"Sitting tied for third and just two off the lead with a round to go at the Scottish Open, Knapp was an odds-on chance to qualify for his first Open Championship but having played his first five holes in two-under-par in round four, he lost the plot at the Renaissance Club and eventually finished tied for 22nd after a four-over-par 74 on Sunday.
"The winner, Gotterup, and the fast-finishing Dane, Nicolai Hojgaard, who finished tied for fourth, claimed the two remaining places in the field at Portrush as Knapp returned home to lick his wounds. Knapp was forced to withdraw on debut here 12 months ago with a neck injury, but it looks just the sort of venue where he can make the most of his skillset.
"With a benign weather forecast, TPC Three Cities looks set to play easy and Knapp is more than capable of going super low in any conditions, as he demonstrated when winning the Mexico Open last year in 19-under-par."
Dave Tindall: "Michael Thorbjornsen has not missed a cut since that April event and since then he's posted fourth in the Zurich Classic pairs tournament and fourth at the correlating Rocket Classic. That was at the end of June and he's followed it up with 21st at the John Deere (R4 63) and 14th in last week's ISCO Championship. He was 6th for Approach in the former.
"One negative is a missed cut on his only start here last year although that didn't look on the cards at all when he opened with a 5-under 66. It went wrong on Friday but he certainly showed he could flourish during that debut round on the course.
"Huge hitters have done well here and Thorbjornsen (4th for Driving Distance and 6th Off The Tee) is one of the longest. Gaining strokes with the putter in three of his last four events is another sign that the pieces are falling into place for that breakthrough first win.
"Also note that his second at the John Deere and fourths in the Travelers and Rocket Classic have come with bentgrass greens in the mix. His good stuff is very good so I'll take the 35/1 for 6 each-way slots rather than the 28s for 8 or shorter prices for 10 and 12 places."
Back Michael Thorbjornsen each-way (6 Places)
Steve Rawlings: "I'm amazed to see that the former world number one amateur, Luke Clanton, has been allowed to drift out to as big as 110.0 given he's no bigger than 50/1 on the High Street. He hasn't exactly set the world alight since tuning pro at the Canadian Open last month, but it's only a matter of time before he hits his stripes and this looks as good a place as any for him to secure his first victory.
"Clanton has only played in 18 PGA Tour events so far, but he's already finished second in the John Deere Classic, second at the RSM Classic, fifth at the Wyndham Championship and 10th in the Rocket Classic. Those top 10s were all this time last year when he was still a 20-year-old amateur and that last result suggests he should be suited to TPC Three Cities.
"Clanton missed the cut here 12 months ago but form at Detroit Golf Course correlates very nicely here so his 10th in the Rocket Classic could be a good pointer. Clanton arrives in Minnesota after a week off following a decent week at the Scottish Open where he made it through to the weekend in his first event away from the States."
Back Luke Clanton (2.5 Us)
Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.0 and 12 Us @ 2.0
Andy Swales: "Situated approximately 15 miles north of downtown Minneapolis, the course was part of the Champions Tour for 18 years from 2001. It then switched allegiance to the PGA Tour, although the layout had to be toughened up considerably in 2018 to accommodate golf's bigger hitters and younger pros.
"This task belonged to Tom Lehman and Steve Wenzloff who narrowed fairways, added new tees and bunkers, lengthened the course, as well as growing areas of rough. There is a plentiful supply of sizeable water hazards which come into play on 11 holes. Sand is also a constant threat.
"This parkland course has undulating putting surfaces that are slightly larger than the Tour average and forms a huge part of its defence. Both fairways and greens are sown with Bentgrass. The average-winning under-par total for the 3M Open is 18.8.
"The world No 18, Maverick McNealy 20/1, is the highest-ranked player teeing-up in Minnesota. Although the American has failed to win a tournament so far this year, he has posted a trio of podium finishes and is currently 11th in the FedEx Cup standings. He tied third at Twin Cities 12 months ago."