3M Open 2025: Dave Tindall's each-way picks from 33/1 to 45/1

• 35/136.00 Michael Thorbjornsen looks a winner waiting to happen

• 33/134.00 Kurt Kitayama has plenty of pointers including course form and incentive

• 45/146.00 Cameron Champ is a course horse and can thrive again

• Read Steve Rawlings' preview of the tournament here

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Introduction to the 3M Open

It's never easy to follow a major but a decent enough field lines up for the annual 3M Open in Minnesota.

This is just the seventh edition of the tournament but that's enough for us to have a handle on TPC Twin Cities.

The par 71 in Blaine measures 7,431 yards and was designed by the great Arnold Palmer.

Previously, it was home to the Champions Tour's 3M Championship up until 2018 and three of the final five runnings were won by Kenny Perry.

That perhaps points to it being a horses for courses track. It also shows us that elite iron play and strong driving is rewarded as Perry was an standout ball-striker in his PGA Tour days.

Perry won with -23, -18 and -21 (all over 54 holes) and low scoring has been a feature since the PGA Tour got involved even though local man Tom Lehman was brought in to toughen the test. 

Matthew Wolff won the debut event in 2019 with -21 and Lee Hodges took the course record to -24 in 2023.

We've also had a -19 for Michael Thompson (2020) and -17s for Tony Finau (2022) and Jhonattan Vegas (2024) while the most testing edition was in 2021 when Cameron Champ took the spoils with -15.

Back to course form and the last three winners had shown it. 

Vegas had been runner-up on his previous visit, Hodges was 16th a year earlier and Finau was third two editions prior. Champ has franked it by following his win with 16th and 12th.

Beyond form on the actual track itself, Steve Rawlings also points out a strong correlation with Detroit Golf Club, home of last month's Rocket Classic.

Finau won those two events back-to-back in 2022 while Max Greyserman has been runner-up at both. 

With a good weather forecast - temps could creep into the 90s - expect low scoring again on these fast bentgrass greens.

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Bet 1: Back Michael Thorbjornsen @ 35/136.00

I'm pleased that we have Chris Gotterup, Sam Burns and Wyndham Clark in the field as it means we get a decent-enough price on Michael Thorbjornsen.

The American has been tipped for big things since winning the 2018 US Junior Amateur and after eyecatching moments such as fourth at the 2022 Travelers when still not in the pro ranks, he's now starting to properly blossom.

A win looks around the corner and this could be a great opportunity.

Thorbjornsen, who led the PGA Tour University rankings for 2024, has gone close. He was runner-up at the John Deere shortly after turning pro and also second at the Corales Puntacana earlier this year.

He's not missed a cut since that April event and since then he's posted fourth in the Zurich Classic pairs tournament and fourth at the correlating Rocket Classic.

That was at the end of June and he's followed it up with 21st at the John Deere (R4 63) and 14th in last week's ISCO Championship. He was 6th for Approach in the former.

One negative is a missed cut on his only start here last year although that didn't look on the cards at all when he opened with a 5-under 66. It went wrong on Friday but he certainly showed he could flourish during that debut round on the course.

Huge hitters have done well here and Thorbjornsen (4th for Driving Distance and 6th Off The Tee) is one of the longest.

Gaining strokes with the putter in three of his last four events is another sign that the pieces are falling into place for that breakthrough first win.

Also note that his second at the John Deere and fourths in the Travelers and Rocket Classic have come with bentgrass greens in the mix.

His good stuff is very good so I'll take the 35/136.00 for 6 each-way slots rather than the 28s for 8 or shorter prices for 10 and 12 places.

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Bet 2: Back Kurt Kitayama @ 33/134.00

If looking for a player to tick the boxes of course form, current form and strong recent driving and iron play, Kurt Kitayama's name flashes brightly.

Twelve months ago he made his TPC Twin Cities debut and shot 66-69-70-66 to take a share of sixth place.

As for current form, he's really clicked into gear again after a poor first part of the campaign.

Kitayama was fifth in May's CJ Cup Byron Nelson and added 22nd at Colonial later that month.

Most recently, he's finished fifth in the John Deere Classic and last week he closed strongly to post 14th in the Barracuda Championship.

The 32-year-old was 1st for Greens In Regulation at the Barracuda and 7th for Approach in the John Deere where Strokes Gained were recorded. He's 12th in the season-long Off The Tee charts.

There are another couple of pointers which add to his case.

First, his one previous PGA Tour win came on another Arnold Palmer design. That was Bay Hill, Arnie's most famous creation.

Second, with just this and next week's Wyndham Championship to decide who makes the field of 70 for the opening FedEx Cup Playoff event, plenty of players need to pull something out of the bag.

Kitayama is one of them. He's 110th in the standings but knows this could be a golden chance to make a late surge. The same applies to Thorbjornsen, who is 86th.

I'll give myself a bit of wriggle room by backing Kitayama at 33/134.00 in the 10 Places market.

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Bet 3: Back Cameron Champ @ 45/146.00

There were a few contenders for the final spot, with Patrick Fishburn, Max Greyserman and Jake Knapp all considered.

But I'll end with a punt on former winner Cameron Champ.

The monster-hitting American has three PGA Tour wins: this, the Sanderson Farms and the Safeway Open.

At the Sanderson Farms, he followed his victory there with a ninth two visits later while, as noted, he's posted 16th and 12th here since lifting tht trophy in 2021.

Champ said when returning to defend: "There's certain courses that you show up, you feel comfortable, you like it, you like everything about it just again from the grass to the way the course layout is to where the pins are.

"And this is just one of those places where it doesn't matter if I play good or bad, I'm just very comfortable with it."

June and July have showcased some strong form from Champ.

He was ninth in the Canadian Open, 19th at the Rocket Classic, 27th at the John Deere and 14th in the ISCO Championship.

The 30-year-old ranked in the top 10 for Off The Tee in all four of those events and that prowess with opening shots will serve him well here.

In addition he gained strokes both on Approach and with the putter across that four-tournament stretch so he really looks in a great place to give this a good run again.

He's down at 132nd in the FedEx Cup standings so completes a theme for this week's staking plan: big, big hitters who need a big result.

I'll go 8 Places and take the 45s.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @DaveTindallgolf

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Now read more golf previews and tips here

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