Golf Tips: Our experts' best bets for Genesis Invitational

  • Max Liu
  • 3:00 min read
American golfer Scottie Scheffler
Scheffler is the favourite at this week's Genesis Invitational

Get the best bets for this week's Genesis Invitational from Steve Rawlings, Dave Tindall and more golf betting experts...

  • 29/130.00 Burns backed to finally lift trophy

  • 40/141.00 Adam Scott is a force at Riviera

  • 299/1300.00 Hoffman a hot tip for redemption

  • Burns backed at Riviera

    Steve Rawlings: "I wanted to back Justin Thomas, but I can't back do it at 20/1 in a field this strong.

    "Thomas looks like he's getting back to his best after a poor 2023 and he really should have won here five years ago when he led by four with a round to go. But a strong case can be made for the top-12 or so in the market so I'm happy to take it easy before the off.

    "Sam Burns is another that will feel he should have already lifted this trophy given he was five strokes clear at halfway back in 2021 when he finished third.

    "He's missed both his cuts here since and he also missed the cut on debut in 2019 (finished 23rd in 2020 on his only other start) so he doesn't have a massive bank of course form. But I'm happy to overlook that given his performance three years ago.

    "That was his first big chance of victory on the PGA Tour so his 74 on Saturday was understandable and he's won five times since, including twice at the Valspar Championship - an event staged at a similarly tough venue.

    "Burns has current form figures reading 6-10-3, he's been putting very nicely this year, he ranked third for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and fifth for Greens In Regulation last week at TPC Scottsdale and I thought 30.0 was more than fair."

    Back Sam Burns @ 30.0

    Bet Here

    Each-Way Picks from 33/1 to 125/1

    Dave Tindall: "There are some very obvious parallels between Adam Scott and Fred Couples. Like Couples, Scott has won at Riviera and also captured a Masters green jacket. And, just as Freddie was in his 40s, the Aussie is very much a force here still.

    "Scott is actually a two-time champion at Riviera. His first needed an asterisk as it came over just 36 holes back in 2005 but there was no doubt about his victory here in 2020.

    "Also a runner-up in both 2006 and 2016, Scott was seventh in 2019 and fourth in 2022. That's an awful lot of course form. He'll return in excellent shape after five top 10s and a further top 20 in his last six worldwide starts. The most recent came via eighth in Phoenix on Sunday.

    "Notably, Scott ranked 3rd for SG: Approach last week after ranking 12th in that category at Pebble Beach seven days earlier."

    Back Adam Scott @ 40/1

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    Hot Hoffman a fabulous price at 299/1

    Steve Rawlings: "There won't be many unluckier losers this year than Charley Hoffman at the Phoenix Open last week.

    "The veteran Californian shot 64-64 over the weekend at TPC Scottsdale, having been assigned the unfavourable AM-PM draw and having been matched in-running at just 1.09.

    "Hoffman was cruelly denied his fifth PGA Tour title and his first win in eight years when Nick Taylor finished the event with three birdies in his last four holes to catch Hoffman, before birdying the 18th twice in extra-time.

    "The Hoff did absolutely nothing wrong and, although he needs to lift himself and go again quite soon after a disappointing defeat, he's been scandalously overlooked in the market this week in an event that really suits him.

    "The 47-year-old has plenty of course form and some decent finishes here - most notably his 12th 10 years ago and his fourth in 2017 - which came a couple of months before he led the US Masters at halfway."

    Back Charley Hoffman (2us) @ 300.0

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    First-Round Leader Tips: Picks from 28/1 to 80/1

    Dave Tindall: "Kevin Yu, who played for Arizona State, couldn't live up to the raised expectations at TPC Scottsdale last week but should feel more relaxed here.

    "He's certainly taken the eye in his starts in California, finishing third at The American Express and sixth in the Farmers Insurance Open last month as well as seventh at Pebble Beach in 2023.

    "Yu was the first-round leader at Torrey Pines via a 64 at the North Course while a closing 63 at The American Express was further evidence of him going low. The 80/181.00 shot tees off at 10:13."

    Back Kevin Yu each-way @ 80/1

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    Course and current form stats

    Andy Swales: "Riviera is one of the most demanding tee-to-green courses on the PGA Tour, with tree-lined fairways and a handful of subtle dog-legs. It demands solid ball-striking and accurate iron play.

    "In 2023, the venue's Poa Annua putting surfaces were the joint-fourth largest on the PGA Tour calendar. There is plenty of penal rough, with Riviera earning a reputation for favouring right-handers who 'fade' the ball from left-to right - or left-handers who can 'draw'.

    "Even though there is not a single water hazard in play, good course management is vital on this parkland layout...

    "Of all the golfers with a strong Riviera history, no one shines brighter than Max Homa 14/1. The 33-year-old was born barely 20 miles from this week's venue and his last four starts here have all yielded top-10s.

    "These include a victory in 2021 and a runner-up finish 12 months ago. On the downside, Homa is yet to find top gear in 2024."

    Max Homa @ 14/115.00

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    Read the Punter's in-play blog for the latest from both of this week's events

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