Golf Bets

The Genesis Invitational 2024 Each-way Tips: Picks from 33/1 to 125/1

Australian golfer Adam Scott
Adam Scott can win for a third time at Riviera

The PGA Tour moves back to California this week and Dave Tindall has three bets for the action at Riviera Country Club...

  • 40/141.00 Adam Scott is an in-form course horse

  • 33/134.00 Sahith Theegala has strong local connections

  • 125/1126.00 Tom Hoge boasts impressive Approach numbers

The list of big-priced winners on the PGA Tour continues.

I have absolutely no regrets about Chris Kirk, Grayson Murray, Nick Dunlap, Matthieu Pavon and Wyndham Clark. They weren't in my thinking.

But 125/1 Nick Taylor last week? Sheesh. Having banged on about course form, I'm still wondering why on earth I transferred last year's runner-up out at the last minute for Erik van Rooyen. Still, it happened and we move on.

After the drunken, 'last days of Rome' vibe in Phoenix, the PGA Tour heads to the far more sedate and elegant surroundings of Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles. Or to put it another way, from Stifler to Stifler's Mom.

The Genesis Invitational has a field of just 70 this year as it's given Signature Event status and a $20m purse.

That small field includes a returning Tiger Woods - he's 150/1151.00 if you fancy it - although the last two winners won't be present.

Joaquin Niemann (2022) and Jon Rahm (2023) have both moved to LIV so if this year's champion also defects, conspiracy theorists can maybe switch attention from Taylor Swift to Riviera winners. That would be three in a row. Makes you think.

Rahm also won last year's Masters to really frank a long-existing correlation between Riviera and Augusta National.

"It's a shot-maker's course. I feel like I'm a very good iron player. It's a good second‑shot course," said Fred Couples once. Freddie was talking about Riviera but he's churned out those same quotes about Augusta. And he should know having won at both venues.

To back up Couples' words, both Rahm and Niemann ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach when lifting the trophy here. Rewind a little to previous champions and Adam Scott was 3rd for SGA when winning in 2020 and J.B. Holmes 6th in 2019.

Back Adam Scott @ 40/141.00

There are some very obvious parallels between Adam Scott and Fred Couples.

Like Couples, Scott has won at Riviera and also captured a Masters green jacket. And, just as Freddie was in his 40s, the Aussie is very much a force here still.

Scott is actually a two-time champion at Riviera. His first needed an asterisk as it came over just 36 holes back in 2005 but there was no doubt about his victory here in 2020.

Also a runner-up in both 2006 and 2016, Scott was seventh in 2019 and fourth in 2022. That's an awful lot of course form.

He'll return in excellent shape after five top 10s and a further top 20 in his last six worldwide starts. The most recent came via eighth in Phoenix on Sunday.

Notably, Scott ranked 3rd for SG: Approach last week after ranking 12th in that category at Pebble Beach seven days earlier.

Talking on Sunday after his closing 66 at TPC Scottsdale, the 43-year-old said: "Yeah, slow start but kind of played really nicely for the last three days.

"I'm most pleased with my ball-striking really kind of coming back to where I want it. I feel like it's been a while since I could say that.

"That's a good feeling, obviously, going into next week at Riviera, a tournament I love, a big event on our schedule, and a course where you really need to hit the ball well to have a chance."

You couldn't really invent a more ideal set of quotes given the need for quality iron play this week and Scott is a must each-way bet at 40/141.00.

Back Adam Scott @ 40/141.00

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Back Sahith Theegala @ 33/134.00

Sahith Theegala banked a fifth place finish in Phoenix to add to his 20th place at Pebble the week before and second place in the season-opening Sentry.

There was a slight element of disappointment that Theegala couldn't quite maintain his challenge in Sunday's final round but let's not forget that he came from the wrong side of the draw.

Early-late averaged three shots higher over those opening two rounds and, as well as the tougher conditions, the American had to endure an unpleasant schedule.

As he said on Saturday: "I felt like I had a 12-hour day the first day, nothing yesterday, and then another 12-plus-hour day today. So ready for another 10-, 12-hour day tomorrow. It's been a weird week, and I'm actually really exhausted right now."

Still, he's 26 years old so I'm not expecting that tiredness to roll over to Riviera and it's far better to focus on all the positives of Phoenix.

Theegala was 5th for Strokes Gained: Approach at TPC Scottsdale as well as 4th for SG: Tee To Green while he's ranked in the top 15 for SG: Putting on his last two starts.

He's worth a bet on current form and stats alone but I like the fact that he's a really good fit for Riviera, a course with a long-held reputation for being a faders' paradise.

Theegala hits a left-to-right shape and that's a far safer shot around the 'Riv'. "All the dogleg lefts out here, I can hit my cut," he said at Scottsdale.

Of course, the theory is best highlighted by actual results and after making the cut in both 2017 and 2022, the local Californian shot 71-68-68-66 last year to finish sixth.

That 2017 performance needs revisiting as, on first glance, it seems a surprise he would have been playing it that year when still a virtually unknown college teenager.

The backstory is that Theegala earned an exemption by winning the Collegiate Showcase. In the tournament itself, he opened with a 67 to sit eighth after 18 holes and then got to play with Phil Mickelson on the weekend.

Reflecting on that week to the LA Times in 2022, he recalled: "That was one of the best memories I've ever had. It was incredible. I knew my family and friends would be out there. Literally 20 minutes from campus, so I had a bunch of Pepperdine people coming out too.

"I played 33 holes with Phil on Sunday, and obviously that's something I'm never going to forget as a just-turned 19-year-old in college. And Riviera is one of my favourite golf courses, so nothing but good memories there. I'm really excited about getting a spot to my hometown event."

Heading there in such good form in 2024 suggests he's one for the shortlist. And having won the Fortinet Championship in his home state in September - his first PGA Tour success - Theegala will have the added belief that he can capture an event of this prestige.

Back Sahith Theegala @ 33/134.00

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Back Tom Hoge @ 125/1126.00

Scott ranks 5th for Strokes Gained: Approach this season and you'll also find the name of Tom Hoge in the top 10 of that list.

Hoge was sixth for SGA in both California events so far: The American Express and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

He finished 17th and sixth respectively in those two tournaments while he added another 17th at last week's Phoenix Open after closing 68-66 on the weekend.

Hoge hasn't got a brilliant record here but there have certainly been some flashes and signs of promise, especially last year.

The 2022 Pebble Beach winner was third after round one and 15th at halfway in 2018 while last year rounds of 67-71-68 put him sixth after 54 holes before he slid to 14th.

Still, there's plenty to like about a player at such big odds and surely the list of winners so far this season is giving some of the lesser lights extra belief. Back Hoge at 125/1126.00.

The other one I considered at a three-figure price was Christiaan Bezuidenhout.

South Africans have a good record here and that makes sense given that Riviera has Kikuyu grass, a strain that the Springboks grew up playing.

Bezuidenhout ranks 6th for Strokes Gained: Approach this season and since finishing runner-up at The American Express he's added 20th at Pebble Beach and 28th in Phoenix.

Back Tom Hoge @ 125/1126.00

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Now Read Genesis Invitational: The Punter's Preview

Recommended bets

Dave's P/L for 2024

Staked: £150
Returned: £84
P/L: -£66

2022/2023 P/L: -£191.44
2021/2022 P/L: -£315.35
2020/2021 P/L: +£1475.87
2019/2020 P/L: +£13.83
2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89


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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.