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Find Me a 100 Winner: Hot Hoffman a fabulous price at 299/1

Golfer Charley Hoffman
Charley Hoffman in action last week

All six winners on the PGA Tour this year have been matched before the off at a triple-figure price so Steve Rawlings has picked two outsiders to back at The Genesis...

Following Nick Taylor's stunning finish at the Phoenix Open on Sunday, all six winners on the PGA Tour in 2024 have been outsiders and as highlighted in the preview, The Genesis has produced more than it's fair share of shock winners over the years.

I've picked out two longshots at Riviera, starting with the in-form South African, Christiaan Bezuidenhout.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout @ 170.0169/1

It's 18 years since Rory Sabbatini edged out the defending champion, Adam Scott, here and we need to go back to the last century to find the previous South African winner of The Genesis - Ernie Els in 1999 - but South Africans do tend to enjoy Riviera.

Kikuya is a grass rarely encountered in the States but it's a familiar playing surface for those twho grew up playing the game in South Africa, and the one I like this week is Christiaan Bezuidenhout.

The 29-year-old doesn't have a wealth of course experience, having missed the cut on debut two years ago and finished only 58th 12 months ago. But there's no reason to think he can't improve on that considerably.

Bezuidenhout missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open on his first start after he'd finished second to Nick Dunlap in the American Express last month, but he's ranked second and third for Putting Average in his last two starts, when finishing 20th at Pebble Beach and 28th last week at the Phoenix Open.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (720).jpg

His Strokes Gained figures for both Tee-to-Green and Approach have been decent this year and he might well be the next shock winner in 2024.

Back C Bezuidenhout (2us) @ 170.0169/1

Bet now

Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

Charley Hoffman @ 300.0299/1

There won't be many unluckier losers this year than Charley Hoffman at the Phoenix Open last week.

The veteran Californian shot 64-64 over the weekend at TPC Scottsdale, having been assigned the unfavourable AM-PM draw and having been matched in-running at just 1.091/11.

Hoffman was cruelly denied his fifth PGA Tour title and his first win in eight years when Nick Taylor finished the event with three birdies in his last four holes to catch Hoffman, before birdying the 18th twice in extra-time.

The Hoff did absolutely nothing wrong and, although he needs to lift himself and go again quite soon after a disappointing defeat, he's been scandalously overlooked in the market this week in an event that really suits him.

The 47-year-old has plenty of course form and some decent finishes here - most notably his 12th 10 years ago and his fourth in 2017 - which came a couple of months before he led the US Masters at halfway.

It's not a huge surprise to see that this venue suits him given he has an excellent record at Augusta (see course correlation in the preview), and he can draw inspiration from another PGA Tour veteran.

Columbia's Camilo Villegas won the Bermuda Championship in November one week after finishing second in Mexico and more than nine years after he'd won his fourth PGA Tour event at the Wyndham Championship.

As was the case with Villegas, who was a column pick in Bermuda at 160.0159/1, the market often underplays a strong performance by someone who hasn't been playing brilliantly in a while but two further parallels between the pair suggest Hoffman is well worth chancing too.

Firstly, the pair are experienced enough to build on their strong performances, rather than get overly exited and raise their expectations. Secondly, the numbers suggest their performances were no flukes.

There were no Strokes Gained figures produced for the World Wide Technology Championship, in which Villegas had finished second, but the fact that he'd ranked 14th for Greens In Regulation and fourth for Putting Average suggested he was in fine fettle and Hoffman's numbers last week were undisputably strong.

A slight change in the positioning of his left hand on the grip appears to have had a huge impact and his stats last week were incredible.

He ranked second for Greens In Regulation, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach and he ranked second for SG: Putting and first for Putting Average.

Hoffman was disadvantaged to the tune of almost three strokes by the draw last week but he finished three strokes ahead of everyone bar Taylor.

He deserves redemption for last week and he might just be playing well enough to receive it. Odds of around 300.0299/1 are fantastic so I'm making him a two point play.

Back Charley Hoffman (2us) @ 300.0299/1

Bet now

Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

Read my Genesis preview here

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter


Staked: 26.5 Us

Returned: 8 Us

P/L: -18 .5Us


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