Golf Tips: Best bets for this week's Valero Texas Open

  • Max Liu
  • 4:00 min read
Golfer Rory McIlroy
Rory is the favourite in Texas but are any of our experts backing him?

Get the best bets for this week's Valero Texas Open - the last PGA Tour event before next week's Masters at Augusta - from Dave Tindall, who put up a 66/1 winner last week, Steve Rawlings and more golf betting experts...

  • 45/146.00 Brian Harman is overpriced says Steve

  • 49/150.00 Englishman is worth backing for FRL says Dave

  • 109/1110.00 a big price for Todd whose game suits the course

  • Valero Texas Open Tips and Predictions

    Harman and Henley chanced at 45/1 and 59/1

    Steve Rawlings: "You don't need to be monstrous long to win here and the last seven winners have ranked 52nd, 46th, 23rd, 28th, 46th, 25th and fourth for Driving Distance.

    "Driving Accuracy was an important stat in 2019, with the top-five ranking tied-seventh, tied-seventh, first, 26th and fourth and Connors ranked third for DA last year but in the four renewals in-between, 25 players finished inside the top-five and ties and only four of them ranked inside the top 20 for Driving Accuracy.

    "The 2018 winner, Andrew Landry, topped the Greens In Regulation stats and Corey Conners has topped the GIR stats on the two occasions he's took the title...

    "Brian Harman finished 12th in the Scottish Open the week before he won the Open Championship last year, so he was always going to play the week before the next major championship.

    "Harman sat second at halfway at Augusta back in 2021 so, although he's missed the cut there in each of the last two editions, he'll have a live chance next week. But I like his chances here first.

    "Harman missed the cut at the Valspar Championship last time out but he was in fine fettle prior to that, finishing 12th in the Arnold Palmer and second in the Players, where his approach and putting figures were excellent.

    "His course form figures read a regressive 18-22-16-MC-51-MC but he has form at both Waialae and El Cameleon and he's overpriced at 46.0."

    Back Brian Harman @ 46.0

    Bet here

    First-Round Leader Tips: Picks from 50/1 to 80/1

    Dave Tindall: "Aaron Rai has finished 29th and 28th in his two starts here and in the first of those he opened with a 67 to sit third after round one. With back-to-back seventh places in the Houston Open, Rai likes his Texas golf and he made another quick start in that event last week.

    "This time the Englishman carded a Thursday 66 and that put him sixth on the first-round leaderboard. Back in January, Rai was third after 18 holes (65) of the Sony Open - a tournament whose results correlate well with this one - and two starts later he sat third after the opening lap of the Farmers Insurance Open.

    "With no less than three first-round leads on the PGA Tour last year (Farmers, Heritage and Canadian Open), he's a great follow in this market so the 50s looks well worth taking. Rai is an early starter at 07.31 from the 10th."

    Back Aaron Rai each-way @ 50/1

    Bet here

    Find Me a 100 Winner: A pair of Exchange fancies at 110 and 130

    Steve Rawlings: "Brendon Todd sat tied for 69th and 11 off the lead at halfway when he finished sixth ten years ago and last year's 53rd place finish should have been far better given he sat third at halfway.

    "His form here is understandable given he has form at three of the four courses that I highlighted in the preview that correlate nicely with this track and he arrives in fair form.

    "He missed the cut at the Players Championship a week after finishing sixth at the Arnold Palmer and he'll be disappointed by his weekend performance last time out at the Valspar Championship where he finished 33rd, having been tied for the lead at halfway!

    "His course and current form figures don't reflect quite how well the venue suits or how well he's been playing over the last month or so and his triple-figure price isn't a true representation of his chance this week."

    Back (2us) Brendon Todd @ 110.0

    Bet here

    Each-way Tips: Picks from 45/1 to 66/1

    Dave Tindall: "Lucas Glover isn't quite in the course horse category but he's not far off after a fourth in 2021 and finishes of 14th and 18th either side. A slow start (75) cost him last year but he still made the cut.

    "He shot a 66 in each of those top 20s and going 6-under for 18 holes on this track is no mean feat. Glover hit the headlines last year with those brilliant back-to-back August victories in the Wyndham Championship and FedEx St Jude Championship.

    "There's a feeling that he's perhaps reverted to the mean in 2024 but there are signs that he has another big week in him. The 2009 US Open champ had a trio of top 35s in the Genesis Invitational, Cognizant Classic and Arnold Palmer Invitational and then stepped it up on on his latest start with 11th at the Valspar."

    Back Lucas Glover each-way @ 66/1

    Bet here

    Course and current form stats

    Andy Swales: "TPC San Antonio is laid out just over 1,000 feet above sea level, with water coming into play on only two holes - which is rare for such a modern course.

    "The majority of fairways are tree-lined and tight, while greens are undulating. Bunkers are large, plentiful and deep on what is a traditional parkland course;

    "The Oaks Course is approximately 14 miles north of San Antonio city centre, around 150 miles from the Mexican border and 190 miles from the nearest coast...

    "Defending champion Corey Conners 20/1, who is a two-time winner at TPC San Antonio, has had a consistent start to 2024 without contending for titles down the final nine holes."

    Corey Conners @ 20/121.00

    Bet here

    Now read US Masters 2024: Dave Tindall's guide to the action at Augusta National

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