Fleetwood to thrive at 33/1 says Dave Tindall
Steve Rawlings chances Kitayama at 75.0
Sullivan to make strong start at 100/1 at KLM
Steve Rawlings says: "Last year's playoff protagonists, the runner-up, Scottie Scheffler, and the winner, Sam Burns, ranked first and third for Driving Distance and the 2021 winner, Jason Kokrak, ranked first for DD but that's unusual.
"This is not a track that can be overpowered and length off the tee is usually an irrelevance. None of the 12 winners prior to Kokrak ranked inside the top-ten for DD and, despite the last two results, it's not a stat to get hung up on. Colonial is short by modern standards and there are just two par fives.
"Irons are taken off several tees and the average DD ranking of the ten winners before Kokrak was exactly 30th. Kokrak ranked fourth for Driving Accuracy and eight of the 13 winners have ranked inside the top-ten for that stat...
"I'm happy to chance the Arnold Palmer Invitational winner, Kurt Kitayama, after he signed off the US PGA Championship with a five-under-par 65 to finish fourth.
"Kitayama was only 40th on debut 12 months ago but he shot 65 in round two and he ranked third for Strokes Gained Approach, 13th for SGT2G and 12th for SGP last week. If he plays to that level this week he'll be there or thereabouts."
Dave Tindall says: "Tommy Fleetwood was in the top 10 with 18 to play at Oak Hill last week before a poor start to his final round but tied 18th was a decent effort and followed on from fifth at Quail Hollow and 15th at Hilton Head.
"He's had positive Strokes Gained numbers in every main category in his last three events so there are no weaknesses.
"Fleetwood made his debut in this event last year and finished tied 35th which will hopefully be a good marker and a run to the quarter-finals of the WGC-Match Play at Austin CC bodes well as that course correlates strongly with this fellow Texas layout.
"If some of the leading lights such as Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland are slightly battered and bruised by contending at Oak Hill, Fleetwood has the chance, the form and confidence to slip in and gain his first PGA Tour success. Take the 33/1."
Steve Rawlings: "Brendon Todd missed the cut from the wrong side of the draw last week on a track that was too long for him anyway but he was eighth at the Wells Fargo Championship in his penultimate start, where he ranked second for putting Average and Strokes Gained -Putting and he has course form figures reading MC-5-43-MC-MC-8-3.
Andy Swales says: "Colonial is a strange mix of Bermuda grass fairways and Bentgrass greens. It's normal for courses this far south to have putting surfaces sown with Bermuda, which is better suited for coping with the heat of a typical Texas summer.
"However, its founder Marvin Leonard was determined to install Bentgrass greens and, almost nine decades later, these remain in place at Colonial. Opened in 1936, Colonial Country Club is a layout which typifies the era in which it was built, with trademark small greens and narrow fairways...
"Sepp Straka appears to be returning to better form, highlighted by his tie-for-seventh at Oak Hill on Sunday. He enjoyed a career-defining season in 2022 when he secured his maiden PGA Tour title, while adding three more podium finishes."
Steve Rawlings says: "We've only had two renewals at Bernardus but both editions were quite different (there was a difference of ten strokes between the two winning scores), so we probably can't draw too many conclusions from the stats.
"With its wide-open fairways, Driving Accuracy hasn't been a factor here but after that, it's not easy to predict what statistics we should be analysing. This isn't a tough track if the wind doesn't blow and like many a low scoring event, the 2021 edition was won by the person that putted the best.
"My only pre-event selection at a double-figure price is the prolific Spaniard, Pablo Larrazabal, who just over a week after turning 40, is in search of his ninth DP World Tour title.
"Larrazabal won his eighth title just a fortnight before his big birthday at the Korea Championship and given he won his sixth and seventh titles within a month of each other, just over a year ago, it's a bit odd to see him trading as high as 80.0.
"Larrazabal finished only 65th in the US PGA Championship last week but he was inside the top-ten after the opening round and he should take to the venue."
Matt Cooper says: "Richard Mansell finished second at Spey Valley - another modern heathland layout - on the EuroPro Tour in 2019 (he'd won for the first time a week earlier and got off to a slow start at Spey before outscoring the field over the final 36 holes).
"His two challenges in this event came among a rash of good efforts in 2021 and 2022, and he was closest to lifting a first trophy when carding a 66 at Kingsbarns while constructing a four-shot 54-hole lead at last year's Dunhill Links. He didn't win that week but he hasn't missed a cut since.
"In that run he has finished sixth in the Singapore Classic and was two shots back of the pre-final round lead in the Korea Championship two starts ago. This looks a great opportunity for him to contend again and maybe grab that breakthrough win."
Dave Tindall says: "Andy Sullivan once won a trip to space after making a hole-in-one in this event.As far as I know, he never claimed it after admitting he was terrified of heights.
"Sullivan started with a 65 on his return to the tournament in 2015 and although his one appearance at this week's course - Bernardus Golf - ended in a missed cut, it's the sort of track (links feel) that should suit him.
"In the last four starts, Sullivan was the first-round leader at the ISPS Handa Championship in Japan and second after 18 holes the following week in the Korea Championship.
"Also the first-round leader at Wentworth in September, Sullivan is worth a poke at 100/1 to set the pace again. He heads out at 08.00 from the 10th tee."
Andy Swales says: "Despite being a typically low-lying venue of the Netherlands, the fairways are well-contoured with plenty of carefully crafted undulations - especially the putting surfaces.
"Water is a prominent feature at Bernardus coming into play on 10 holes, both in the form of ponds, as well as meandering streams. Sand dunes and gorse are in abundance on a course that is also well-bunkered...
"Alexander Bjork was a top-10 finisher at Bernardus 12 months ago and enjoying a good current run of form. Top-four finishes in each of his last two starts in Italy and Belgium."