Deutsche Bank Championship 2015: Dave Tindall rates the top 10 for current, course and long-term form

Big-hitting Dustin Johnson is fancied to record a high finish in Boston this week
Big-hitting Dustin Johnson is fancied to record a high finish in Boston this week

Dave Tindall arms you with the stats that matter for a punt on the Top 5 and Top 10 Finish markets ahead of this week's play-off event in Massachusetts...


"He's won three of his last four events and has a second and a third to his name at this venue. He was also halfway leader at TPC Boston last year, third with a round to go and missed the top five by a shot when T7."

Back Jason Day for Top 5 @ 2.6613/8

Jason Day

In early February this year, Day was the owner of just a single strokeplay victory on the PGA Tour despite all his superb play and had a reputation as someone who couldn't quite get over the line. Now he has five, is a major winner and is the hottest player in golf after taking victory in three of his last four starts. Add that to some superb course form and he's jumped above McIlroy and Spieth at the top of the betting. After his win at The Barclays last Sunday, he said of TPC Boston: "I have this great momentum going into next week to a course I absolutely love." Why does he like it so much? "I feel like it suits the bomber, this golf course." Five times in the eight-year history of the FedEx Cup play-offs, someone has won back-to-back events and Day must have a golden chance of adding to that tally.

Last four events: 1-1-12-1
Deutsche Bank record: 7-13-51-3-2-19-50
Last 50 starts - Win: 12%, Top 5: 34%, Top 10: 42%


Rory McIlroy

This is just Rory's second start since June's US Open due to the layoff he had after rupturing ligaments in his left ankle. It was rust rather than any lingering physical problems that seemed to be behind his respectable but ultimately disappointing T17 in the USPGA at Whistling Straits and there's a fair chance lack of tournament sharpness will hurt him here. On the plus side, he's a former winner at TPC Boston (2012) and also made the top five last year. "It's a golf course that sets up well for me," he said last year.

Last four events: 17-9-MC-MC
Deutsche Bank record: 5-47-1-37
Last 50 starts - Win: 16%, Top 5: 36%, Top 10: 58%


Jordan Spieth

He's won two majors in 2015 and finished second and fourth in the other two and yet he's only third favourite in Boston this week. Jason Day's incredible recent play and Rory's past win at the course are responsible for that along with Spieth's surprise missed cut at The Barclays when he looked unusually out of sorts (74-73). "Tough week. I'm definitely searching for answers," said Spieth, whose MC also meant he lost his newly acquired status as World No.1. However, the golden child does have some 'previous' at TPC Boston as he closed with a stunning 62 to finish fourth here on debut in 2013. He says of the course: "I feel comfortable off the tees with the lines. I like the layout a lot."

Last four events: MC-2-10-4
Deutsche Bank record: 29-4
Last 50 starts - Win: 10%, Top 5: 36%, Top 10: 48%


Dustin Johnson

It's tempting to write DJ off as damaged goods after his agonies in the majors this year but he's not going away and, despite never getting in contention, he was T9 in The Barclays last week and that followed T7 at the USPGA when he kept trying despite a second-round 73 wrecking his chances. "I've had a great season so far," he said last week so he's hardly playing with a cloud over his head at the moment. He has a pair of top fours in this event. "I like this golf course. It sets up well for me off the tee," he said after a third-round 65 in 2012.

Last four events: 9-7-53-49
Deutsche Bank record: 27-4-42-57-4
Last 50 starts - Win: 4%, Top 5: 24%, Top 10: 42%


Henrik Stenson

Still no win for Stenson in 2015 although he did his best to chase down Jason Day last week before the Aussie kicked away over the final few holes. The Swede now has three second places to his name this year (last week's Barclays, June's BMW International Open in Germany and March's Arnold Palmer Invitational) so really wants to get that 'W' on the board. Encouragingly, he is a previous winner of this event, shooting 67-63-66-66 in 2013 when he was playing out of his skin. He also closed with a 65 when T26 last year. Surprisingly, he says his confidence is "not as high as you might think" but he's obviously doing plenty right and another top five is certainly on the cards.

Last four events: 2-25-6-40
Deutsche Bank record: 26-1-55
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 36%, Top 10: 42%


Justin Rose

Rose admitted that, after trying so hard to peak for the run of summer majors, he had nothing in the tank going into last week's Barclays. It showed in a first-round 77 before he showed his class to recover with middle rounds of 65-63. A closing 70 gave him T16. He had some early success at this course when making the top four in both 2003 and 2006 but has an iffy record since then. A venue that has an average winning score of around -19 probably isn't ideal for him so combine that and some tiredness and there are grounds for a lay.

Last four events: 16-4-3-4
Deutsche Bank record: 16-MC-68-MC-54-MC-4-27-29-3
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 34%, Top 10: 46%


Bubba Watson

Bubba has played some great golf this year but he's been overshadowed at various times by Spieth, McIlroy and Day so probably isn't getting the credit he deserves. In his own words: "I'm playing good the last few months, and Jason Day is playing a thousand times better. It seems like he's my thorn right now." You'd think TPC Boston would be a good course for him but, strangely, he's never managed a single top 10 in nine appearances. He admits that a couple of holes (9 and 14) don't fit his eye - "No.9 looks like a cut hole but it's really not, just plays tricks with my mind, and I've got a weak mind - so perhaps he's worth taking on at this venue despite his strong recent form.

Last four events: 3-21-2-2
Deutsche Bank record: 29-67-MC-16-37-32-44-MC-12
Last 50 starts - Win: 8%, Top 5: 28%, Top 10: 34%


Rickie Fowler

"There's a couple of tough tee shots for me. Other than that, I like the golf course," said Fowler back in 2011. However, he's struggled to post good finishes here and last year's T23 was his best in five visits. He hasn't broken 70 in 10 of his last 12 rounds at TPC Boston and on a course where the winning score averages -19 that's not good enough. Fowler won the Scottish Open back in July but had to settle for T30 in both the Open Championship and USPGA so isn't in the same sort of form as he was at this time last year. He also missed the cut at The Barclays last week after a second-round 75.

Last four events: MC-30-10-2
Deutsche Bank record: 23-MC-74-52-41
Last 50 starts - Win: 4%, Top 5: 22%, Top 10: 38%


Zach Johnson

Johnson is keen to bask in the afterglow of his Open Championship victory and did that with a fourth place in The Barclays last week. It's fair to say, though, that Plainfield was a better fit for him than this week's venue. Johnson has pegged it up at TPC Boston nine times and, despite four top 20s, has never cracked the top 10. He did card a 63 in round one in 2010 but usually he doesn't quite go low enough. "This is one of those courses where it seems like, if you can carry that ball 285, 290, it's like a turbo, it just adds more to your round. I don't have that shot," he said in 2013.

Last four events: 4-MC-33-1
Deutsche Bank record: 16-27-47-16-30-19-30-MC-13
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 16%, Top 10: 32%


Brooks Koepka

This is Koepka's debut at the course and, given that bombers are suited, it should surely play into his hands. He's been one of the hottest players over the last few months with back-to-back top 10s in the two final majors and a T6 at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. His fine run came to an end at The Barclays last week when he missed the cut and for the second tournament running his putting was poor. Indeed, after his T6 at the Wyndham Championship, he said: "I think I putted it about as bad as I could. It was probably the worst putting performance of my pro career." He's certainly a potential play for a top 5 or 10 but the flatstick is a concern.

Last four events: MC-6-5-6
Deutsche Bank record: Debut
Last 50 starts - Win: 4%, Top 5: 16%, Top 10: 26%


Conclusion

There's no rocket science behind this play but I simply can't see Jason Day finishing outside the top five this week so he has to be a back in that market at 2.6613/8.

He's won three of his last four events and has a second and a third to his name at this venue. He was also halfway leader at TPC Boston last year, third with a round to go and missed the top five by a shot when T7.

I'm tempted by a lay of Justin Rose in the top 10 market as his recent record here is poor but I prefer to get with Dustin Johnson.

DJ is 2.546/4 for a top 10 and, on this course, he can achieve that easily.

The monster-hitting American has banked four top 10s in his last seven starts (that includes a 7th, 8th and 9th so top 10 seems the best market) while he owns a pair of top 4s in this event. His recent putting stats are good and I still think he can be a huge factor in these FedEx Cup play-offs.


Recommended Bets

Back Jason Day for Top 5 @ 2.6613/8
Back Dustin Johnson for Top 10 @ 2.546/4


Dave's 2015 P/L on Top 5/10s (based on £10 per selection)


Staked: £330
Returned: £426.65
P/L: +£96.65

Get a Free £/€20 Exchange Bet

  • Join Now - Open account using promo code VAL225
  • Bet - Place a £/€20 Bet on the Exchange
  • Earn We'll Refund You £/€20 If the Bet Loses

T&Cs apply.