Each-way terms: 1/5 odds, 6 places
Weather forecast for Colonial Country Club: There's been plenty of rain in the build-up to the event so conditions will be softer than usual. Thunderstorms could hit on Friday and Saturday but Thursday should be okay. Temperatures are pleasant enough but wind is a factor. It's around 12-15mph in the morning and could rise to 20mph in the afternoon.
First-round leader history:
2020 - 63 Justin Rose, Harold Varner
2019 - 64 Tony Finau
2018 - 62 Kevin Na
2017 - 65 Kelly Kraft, J.T. Poston, Derek Fathauer
2016 - 64 Bryce Molder
2015 - 64 Jordan Spieth, Kevin Na, Boo Weekley, Ryo Ishikawa
2014 - 65 Dustin Johnson
2013 - 62 Ryan Palmer
Strategy: Nine of the last 14 first-round leaders went out early and the forecast suggests the morning wave may get slightly better conditions. Not enough for a 3-0 eggs-in-one-basket split but I'll play two morning starters.
Side with Spieth
It's not often I'd pause to look at the very front of the market in the first-round betting. But on this occasion - after a little bit of consideration - I just can't get away from Jordan Spieth.
Let's go in heavy with a fact. In eight appearances at his local event, he's been in the top nine after day one six times. That includes having a piece of the first-round lead in 2015.
That compares with his overall results of one win and five other top 10s. And yet to lift the trophy he's 12/1 but to lead after 18 he's nearly twice the price at 22s.
Okay, ties blunt the contrast a little but he still looks a bet here.
Spieth is sleeping in his own bed this week and revealed on Tuesday that being at home allowed him to hit the course on Monday, something he wouldn't normally be able to do after a major.
Dallas has been hit by heavy downpours in the build-up so the course is soft. The last time we had such pre-event conditions was 2015 and, you guessed it, Spieth cashed in on day one with a 64 to share the first-round lead.
With the weather forecast suggesting early may have an advantage, Spieth's tee-time of 08:16 also looks favourable.
Add in him being paired with Kiawah hero Phil Mickelson and defending champ Daniel Berger and Spieth will relish the extra buzz and his reputation as a serial fast starter will hopefully help him burst out of the traps.
Take the 22/1.
Roar on Rose repeat
Justin Rose was the joint-leader after round last year and I'll take the Englishman to put on a repeat performance.
Rose has history when it comes to starting fast on the same course and evidence of that came at Augusta National last month when he led the first round of the Masters for the fourth time in his career.
The 40-year-old finished seventh there and an excellent closer at Kiawah Island saw him add tied eighth in the US PGA. In short, he's coming right back to form.
Rose has some great history at Colonial. He won the event after opening with a 66 in 2018 and took third place last year when out of sorts.
He'll start his bid this year from the 10th but, more importantly, in the morning. He pegs it up alongside Patrick Reed and Joaquin Niemann at 08:05.
The 45/1 makes plenty of appeal.
For my afternoon starter, I'll roll the dice and try Rafa Cabrera-Bello at 125/1.
The Spaniard made his debut in this event last year and finished an encouraging tied 23rd after shooting all four rounds in the 60s.
He's got a fine record in Texas, the highlights a third place in the 2016 WGC-Match Play and then a fourth in the Houston Open.
RCB again showed his liking for the Lone Star State when tied 21st in the recent Byron Nelson and that included a first-round 64 which put him third after the opening lap.
Last month he was also 12th after day one of the Texas Open and then went home to start out with a 65 in the Gran Canaria Lopesan Open.
There's enough there to suggest he can throw in a low one so take the 125/1.