Weather forecast for Thursday: The Met Office forecast suggests the morning starters have a slight edge. They might see the only sunshine of the day and wind speeds could double for the afternoon wave although it's nothing too drastic. That said, I'll go with three early players.
Put faith in Fisher
Ross Fisher started 65-66 in last week's Hero Open, his 7-under opener putting him seventh on the round one leaderboard.
He didn't quite go through with his effort but once again he produced strong Strokes Gained: Approach numbers and that's key at Celtic Manor.
Fisher has a couple of top 10s on this course and hopefully last week hinted at a return to the early-season form that saw him finish runner-up at the Ras al Khaimah Classic and follow it with a top six in the MyGolfLife Open.
In the latter he opened with a 62 which secured a piece of the first-round lead while he was also eighth after 18 holes at the Dutch Open in May.
The Englishman has twice been in the top two at halfway on this course so let's back him at 50/1 to start fast again.
He heads out at 09.50.
Count on Campillo
Jorge Campillo finally cracked the code at Celtic Manor in 2020 when he closed with three strong rounds in the 60s to finish in a tie for eighth.
This is his first appearance at the Newport course since but five top 30s in his last eight starts, those finishes sprinkled with plenty of low rounds, suggest he can flourish on his return.
The Spaniard racked up the birdies on day one of the Irish Open, shooting a 65 to end the opening lap in second place.
He was also 10th after the first round of the Cazoo Classic while a 67-65 start to the Hero Open last week put him eighth at the midpoint.
With Campillo doing his best work early, he looks a bet at 50/1 for FRL.
He tees off at 09.00.
Get on Gouveia
Ricardo Gouveia was one of the rank-and-file Europeans who made the trip to America when the Barbasol and Barracuda Championships were co-sanctioned by the PGA and DP World Tours.
And he certainly made the best of that new opportunity when finishing eighth at the Barbasol.
To be honest, it came as a bit of a surprise although seventh place in the Dutch Open five starts earlier shows the Portuguese golfer is playing some good stuff again.
Apart from the top 10 itself, two other things stand out from his Barbasol performance.
First, he opened with a 64 to lie second at halfway (he was also eighth after day one at the Dutch Open).
Second, he again produced solid SG: Approach numbers and that will serve him well on this course.
Gouveia, who starts in the final morning group at 10.20, is an 80/1 chance.