Bermuda Championship 2025: Dave Tindall's each-way picks from 40/1 to 50/1

• 40/141.00 Victor Perez has the game and the incentive

• 40/141.00 Takumi Kanaya is a low ball hitter who could thrive

• 50/151.00 Justin Lower has four straight top 20s here

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Introduction to the Bermuda Championship

We're into leg six of the seven-tournament FedEx Cup Fall Series and this one takes us to Bermuda. The Butterfield Bermuda Championship, to give it its full title, is being staged for a seventh straight year.

All have been held at Port Royal Golf Course in Southampton, a very short 6,828-yard par 71. It also hosted the Grand Slam of Golf from 2009-2014, an annual 36-hole event for that year's major winners.

Apart from looking at which players are around the bubble of the top 100 (only those keep their cards) and also golfers ranked 51st to 60th (they get entry to Signature Events at Pebble and Riviera in early 2026), the weather should always come under much scrutiny here.

It's the course's main defence and will again be a factor this year. Winds could blow at 30mph and beyond on day three and it'll be testing throughout.

The differing conditions also explain the range of winning scores. Lucas Herbert and Brian Gay both got it done with 15-under but Camilo Villegas fired 24-under in his 2023 triumph.

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Bet 1: Victor Perez @ 40/141.00

The last three winners of this are Seamus Power (Ireland), Camilo Villegas (Colombia) and Rafael Campos (Puerto Rico).

So by picking Victor Perez at 40/141.00 (8 Places), it appears I'm leaning into the International angle again.

There may be something in that but let's focus on another factor that unites those last three champions in Bermuda.

Looking at one particular table of current PGA Tour stats, Power is 158th, Villegas 167th and Campos 147th? The ranking in question is 'Apex Height', a chart we only tend to take much notice of at the US Masters when trying to pick out a high-ball hitter.

For reference, former Masters runner-up Rickie Fowler is top of the Apex Height standings with an average of 131'.8". 

For windy Bermuda, we want the exact opposite and Power (88'4"), Villegas (82'10") and Campos (92'10") are all way down the Apex Heights. In other words, just the sort of low-ball hitters who logic says would thrive here.

Of course, it may not be the worst thing to back them again but the the low-ball hitter I like this week is Scotland's Victor Perez.

He ranks 162nd (out of 177) for Apex Height on the PGA Tour and the Frenchman showed his ability to hit under the wind when winning the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in Scotland.

Perez had honed those skills after moving to Dundee to live with his girlfriend so was far more experienced on the links than the majority knew.

He's since won the 2022 Dutch Open and 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship at Yas Links, the latter again allowing him to show off his low ball flight.

To add another layer to his chances, Perez currently ranks 104th on the FedEx Cup Fall standings so needs a push to make the top 100 which secures his card.

He's making a decent bid after 11th at the Sanderson Farms and 21st in last week's World Wide Technology Championship where a 65-65 start put him fifth at halfway.

Take the 40s.

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Bet 2: Takumi Kanaya @ 40/141.00

If playing the low ball flight angle, it would be crazy to leave out Takumi Kanaya. 

He's bottom of the Apex Height charts by an absolute mile - 60'3" compared to the next lowest (Adam Svensson) at 77'6" - so really does enjoy hitting those low stingers under the wind.

The Japanese star, who was No.1 in the World Amateur rankings for 55 weeks, has been a regular winner at home.

He banked two Japan Tour victories in both 2023 and 2024 before adding another title this year when winning September's ANA Open.

Since then he's shown he can mix it at this level by following a 21st at the Sanderson Farms with fourth in a classy field at the Baycurrent Classic (the PGA Tour event held in Japan) where he delighted the local fans with a Sunday 62.

After a top 25 in his home Japan Open, Kanaya had round positions of 4-6-11 after 54 holes of the Bank of Utah Championship before sliding away on Sunday and he again cashed in Mexico last week.

At 120th in the standings, a big week here would secure playing privileges.

Like Perez, this is his course debut but hopefully conditions will suit him.

A tidy short game is rewarded on this short course and Kanaya ranks 19th for Strokes Gained: Around The Green and 23rd for SG: Putting this season. He's also third for Driving Accuracy.

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Bet 3: Justin Lower @ 50/151.00

I tipped Justin Lower at 66s at the World Wide Technology Championship last week and he did enough to warrant interest here too at 50s.

Lower headed to Mexico after a third in the Bank of Utah Championship and was looking good again after shooting 67-65 to sit ninth at halfway in the WWT.

The weekend was a bit flat (he fell to 33rd) but he hit the ball well again and just couldn't hole enough putts.

That disappointing final 36 holes means he's still down at 108th in the FedEx Cup Fall standings so, like my other two picks, has work to do. Let's frame that as incentive.

As you'd hope from his name, the 36-year-old from Ohio has a lower ball flight than most.

Lower ranks 143rd for Apex Height and that's translated into a strong record in windy conditions.

He's certainly proved that here by cracking the top 20 on all four visits.

The American was 17th on debut in 2021, eighth a year later, 20th in 2023 and fifth last year when leading after both 18 and 36 holes. 

Speaking about this layout 12 months ago, he said: "I just really like the golf course, it fits me. I don't have to go after it off the tee a little bit, or as much. I can just kind of smooth this out there. With the wind, you don't really want to get it up in the air and I can flight it pretty good."

That all suggests a bet on the course specialist could be a profitable one and we'll play the 50/151.00 in the 10 Places market.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @DaveTindallgolf

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Now read Steve Rawlings' preview of the Bermuda Championship