Bermuda Championship: In-form Canadian chanced at 79/1

• Great event for veterans and outsiders

• Time running out for the Bubble Boys

• Read my DP World Tour Championship preview here

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Tournament History

This is the seventh edition of the Bermuda Championship - an event that began life as an opposite field event when the WGC HSBC Champions in China was still on the schedule.

The Bermuda Championship is the sixth of seven events on the FedEx Cup Fall Series so there's plenty at stake for those bobbing around the 100 mark on the standings, looking to keep their playing privileges for next season.

There's also an incentive to finish between 51^st and 60^th at the end of the series as that earns a spot into two Signature Events next year - the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Genesis Invitational.

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Venue

Port Royal Golf Course, Southampton, Bermuda.

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Course Details

Par 71, 6828 yards
Scoring Average in 2024 69.97

Port Royal is a short, wind exposed Robert Trent Jones Sr. designed course, with a number of holes perched right on the edge of the Atlantic Ocean.

Port Royal's signature hole, the 235-yard par three 16^th, with nothing but the Atlantic Ocean between the tee and the pin, is widely regarded as one of the greatest par threes in golf but it's a tough one. It was the second hardest on the course in 2022 but it's been the toughest on the track for four of the last five renewals.

The Bermuda/Zoysia mixed rough is only 2 ½ inches high but it's still tricky to navigate from and the average sized Bermuda greens only run at around 10 ½ on the stimpmeter because of the almost ever-present wind.

In addition to the first six editions of this event, Port Royal was also the host course for the now defunct Grand Slam of Golf for six years from 2009. The tournament, which was eventually ditched in 2014, was staged to showcase the four major winners over two rounds. Here are the six winners at Port Royal.

2009 - Lucas Glover - 11
2010 - Ernie Els -5
2011 - Keegan Bradley -4
2012 - Padraig Harrington -9
2013 - Adam Scott -8
2014 - Martin Kaymer -6

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 18:00 on Thursday.

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First Six Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2019 - Brendon Todd -24 150.0149/1
2020 - Brian Gay -15 330.0329/1 (playoff)
2021 - Lucas Herbert -15 65.064/1
2022 - Seamus Power -19 27.026/1
2023 - Camilo Villegas -24 160.0159/1
2024 - Rafael Campos -19 600.0599/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Bermuda Championship?

The driving stats are limited and according to Rob Bolton in 2022, who writes for the PGA Tour website, only two holes in opposite directions are used to measure distance off the tee here - the par five second and the par four 12^th.

Looking back, both the first two winners ranked fourth for Driving Accuracy and when Brendon Todd won the inaugural edition, six of the top ten ranked inside the top ten for Driving Accuracy.

The 2020 winner, Brian Gay, was one of four players inside the top ten to rank inside the top ten for DA but that stat hasn't been so key over the last four years.

The 2021 winner, Lucas Herbert, ranked as high as seventh for Driving Distance but neither of the two driving metrics are worth worrying about.

Last year's shock winner, Rafael Campos, ranked 25^th for both Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy.

Starting in 2019, the six winners to date have ranked 10^th, 15^th, 58^th, ninth, first and 51^st for Greens in Regulation, fourth, 16^th 14^th, 46^th, 16^th and first for Scrambling, and third, sixth, 10^th, third, 11^th and seventh for Putting Average.

The 2022 winner, Seamus Power, is something of an anomaly as he only ranked 46^th for Scrambling but Detry, in second, ranked first so a great short game and a hot putter have been the keys to success here so far.

There was a difference of nine strokes between the first winning score and the next two and that was all down to the strength of the wind.

The wind gusted up to 40 mph during round one in 2021 and Matt Fitzpatrick described the conditions as "Brutal. The hardest wind I've ever played in." And Scotland's Russell Knox concurred, saying, "I've never experienced wind that strong."

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Correlating Courses to Consider

There are a number of events staged at courses similar to Port Royal. The Sony Open, the RBC Heritage and the RSM Classic are all held on coastal, wind-affected courses and the host venues, Waialae Country Club, Harbour Town Golf Links and Sea Island Resort are all Bermuda.

The 2020 winner, Brian Gay certainly boosted the links between Port Royal and those three tracks. He has three top-tens at Waialae (home of the Sony), he won the RBC at Harbour Town by a record ten strokes in 2009, and he has a fourth and a third in the RSM Classic at Sea Island.

The 2023 winner, Camilo Vilegas, has a poor record in the Sony but he was beaten in a playoff at the RSM Classic and he has three top-tens at Harbour Town.

With top three finishes in both the Puerto Rico Open and the Corales Puntacana Championship, Campos had performed well in a couple of other events staged at windy, exposed, coastal layouts away from the United States so they're tournaments to consider closely too but it's another overseas tournament, last week's World Wide Technology Championship, that's arguably the best guide given the first two winners of this event have also won at the WWTC's former host course - El Camaleon Golf Club - and the 2023 champ, Vilegas, had finished second in Mexico at the new track - El Cardonal Golf Course - the week before he won.

Whether the new venue holds up as a great guide over time is debatable, but the first 16 editions were staged at El Camaleon Golf Club and form there has held up really well here.

The 2020 winner, Gay, won at El Camaleon Golf Club in 2008 and Brendon Todd won there in 2019, two weeks after he'd won here.

The link was boosted again in 2021 when Danny Lee finished second here, as he was third at El Camaleon in 2014, second in 2018, and seventh in 2022.

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Great Event for the Veterans and Outsiders

Although Lucas Herbert was only 25 when he won here, concentrating on the older pros looks like the way to go here.

Todd was 34 when he won the inaugural event, Gay won in 2020 at the age of 48, Power was 35 three years ago, Villegas was 41 in 2023, and Campos was 36 when he took the title last year.

Going into the fourth round in 2023, three of the top-five were in their 40s and Stewart Cink, who eventually finished seventh, was in his 50s so this is clearly a venue that suits the veteran contingent.

The shortness of the course certainly helps the older players but another reason why they've prospered over the years is the conditions. You can't beat experience when the wind starts howling.

Power was fairly well fancied but four of the six previous winners have gone off at a huge price so it's been a great event for longshots.

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Could There be a Draw Bias Again?

There was difference of just 0.37 of a stroke between the two sides of the draw last year but it's worth keeping a close eye on the forecast this week as one side of the draw could be advantaged considerably.

In addition to last year, the PM-AM starters scored only marginally better than the AM-PM starters in 2020 (0.66 strokes), but the differential was far more acute between 2021and 2023, with the late starters on day one getting the better of it over the first two rounds.

The latter starters on day one enjoyed an advantage of 1.54 strokes over the first two days in 2023 and 1.07 strokes in 2022 and the afternoon starters on Thursday in 2021 averaged 2.88 strokes less than the day one early starters over the first two days.

And back in 2019. the AM-PM side of the draw averaged 2.76 strokes better than those that began the event on Thursday afternoon.

Villegas won from the wrong side of the draw two years ago but it's certainly something to consider before the off.

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Bubble Boys can Contend Again

Only the top 100 in the FedEx Cup standings will keep their cards at the conclusion of the Fall Series but over the last couple of years the top 125 kept their cards and with time running out, each of the last two winners here needed a high finish to keep their playing privileges.

Both Campos and Villegas were languishing in 147^th place in the standings when they won here and the third and fourth place finishers behind Villegas, Matti Schmid and Carl Yuan, were sitting 148^th and 134^th  prior to the off so it's clearly something to consider.

With only next week's RSM Classic to play, those outside the top 100 in the FedEx Cup standings desperately need to make a move to save their cards and as the last couple of year's results highlights perfectly, it's highly likely that some will rise to the challenge.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2019 - Brendon Todd - solo second, trailing by two 6.611/2
2020 - Brian Gay - tied fifth, trailing by three 27.026/1
2021 - Lucas Herbert - solo third, trailing by four 8.07/1
2022 - Seamus Power - tied for the lead 2.466/4
2023 - Camilo Villegas - solo second, trailing by one 6.05/1
2024 - Rafael Campos - tied for the lead 5.69/2

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In-Play Tactics

Windy conditions often result in changeable leaderboards, and all six previous winners have been outside the top 15 places after round one, trailing by between three and seven strokes.

The inaugural winner, Brendon Todd, who was tied for the lead at halfway, is the only winner to be trailing by less that two strokes at halfway but five strokes is the furthest any winner has trailed by after 36 holes.

Campos trailed by five at halfway last year following a 65 on Friday and he was trading at 150.0149/1 before a 62 on Saturday saw him tied for the lead with 18 to play.

Matched in-running at a high of 840.0839/1, Gay trailed by seven in a tie for 64^th after the opening round and he was still four adrift and tied for 12^th at halfway.

Villegas shot 63 on Friday to sit fifth and three back at halfway two years ago and he trailed by a stroke through 54 holes.

Power is the only winner to be inside the top 25 after round one. He sat tied for 16^th and only three back in 2022 and he was only two adrift at halfway and tied for the lead through 54 holes but we still witnessed a bit of in-play drama when the man he was tied with through three rounds, Ben Griffin, was matched at just 1.364/11 when he led by two with seven to play.

Having hit the front, Griffin bogeyed the next four holes before double-bogeying the tough par three 16^th and we've seen players trade at odds-on and get beat in each of the last two editions too.

Vilegas assumed command fairly early on in round four in 2023 but the runner-up, Alex Noren, was still matched at a low of 1.84/5 in-running and so too was Justin Lower last year before Campos kicked clear for his emotional success.

"I can't believe this is happening to me." @RafaCamposGolf was overcome with emotion after his first TOUR win @Bermuda_Champ. pic.twitter.com/GlKXjhyzqb

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) November 17, 2024

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In-form Silverman can contend in Bermuda

I'll be back with the Find Me a 100 Winner column and given how well long-shots have figured here, most, if not all, of my attention will focus on this event but I have got one pick before the off priced up at less than a triple-figure price - Ben Silverman.

The 37-year Canadian was matched at as high as 120.0119/1 when the market first opened on Monday but given his current wellbeing, prices that big were never going to last.

Silverman finished only 21^st in Mexico last week but he started slowly on Thursday to sit tied for 75^th and he shot rounds of 68 and 64 over the weekend to advertise his well-being.

That slow start was perhaps understandable after he finished third in the Bank of Utah Championship in his previous start (his best finish on the PGA Tour), and he looks a lively contender this week given he's ranked 14^th and 12^th for Putting Average in each of his last two starts.

Silverman has never played here before, but he's handled windy conditions nicely enough in the past and there are a number of results in his portfolio that suggests the venue will suit him.

Having shot 67 in blustery conditions in round one, Silverman shot 68 on Friday and 64 on Saturday to sit tied for fourth and just three off the lead at the Sony Open last year before a disappointing 70 on Sunday saw him slump to tied 18^th.

Form at Waialae Country crosses over nicely and so too it appears does form at the Abaco Club in the Bahamas where Silverman won on the Korn Ferry Tour two years ago.

He led last year's winner here, Rafael Campos, by two after three rounds there in 2023 and Campos won the event back in 2019.

Sitting at 137 in the FedEx Cup Standings, Silverman needs another very good week to keep his card but given the form he's in and how well suited he could be to the venue, he may just manage it and if he does contend, he has the mettle to finish the job off.

He's only ever led with 18 to play twice on the Korn Ferry Tour but he converted on both occasions. He looks a lively outsider and a fair price.

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