• Hot putting the key to success at the Earth Course

• Course form stands up nicely 

• Read my Bermuda Championship preview here

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What happened last week? Rai denies Fleetwood in extra time again

Just over five years after the two had met in a playoff to decide the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club, the in-form Tommy Fleetwood and pre-event 32.031/1 chance, Aaron Rai, met in a playoff to decide the Abu Dhabi Championship on Sunday.

Fleetwood had been tied for the lead through rounds one and two, firstly with Shane Lowry and Richard Sterne, then with Rai at halfway, but it was Rai that edged ahead with 18 to play.

Leading by a stroke over Tommy and Nicolai Hojgaard, Rai was trading at 3.185/40, with Fleetwood heading the market at 2/13.00.

Rai started round four slowly, parring the first three holes, and Fleetwood was soon odds-on after he opened round four with a birdie at one and an eagle at two.

Tommy was matched at as low as 1.330/100 before Rai drew alongside him with this birdie at the par three 17^th and after both men had parred the last, we were into extra time.

Aaron Rai, that is clutch!

He joins Tommy Fleetwood at -25.#ADGolfChamps | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/XZtjWcmHWv

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 9, 2025

The market made Fleetwood the odds-on jolly again, but he couldn't match Rai's birdie four at the first playoff hole and just as he'd done in Scotland five years earlier, Rai had beaten his more illustrious opponent in extra time at the first extra hole.

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Griffin gets it done in Mexico

Over on the PGA Tour, Garrick Higgo led the World Wide Technology Championship through 54 holes and he was trading at 2.466/4 with 18 to play but it was the well-fancied pre-event 16/117.00 chance, Ben Griffin, that soon emerged as his biggest danger on Sunday when he birdied three of the first four holes.

Trailing by two, Griffin had been trading at 4.94/1 with 18 to play but after five birdies in-a-row from the eighth hole, he was always in the driving seat.

Having trailed by three with 18 to play, my 130.0129/1 Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Sami Valimaki, who was matched at a low of 5.85/1, shot an eight-under-par 64 on Sunday but with Griffin firing a superb 63, it wasn't quite enough and he finished tied for second with Chad Ramey, one in front of the 54 hole leader, Higgo.

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Tournament History

Just two weeks before the 2026 DP World Tour schedule kicks off with the BMW Australian PGA Championship - the 2025 season ends with the now traditional curtain closer - the DP World Tour Championship.

First staged 16 years ago, when the DP World Tour replicated the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup with its own version called the Race to Dubai, the DP World Tour Championship is the second Playoff event after last week's Abu Dhabi Championship and it's the fifth and final event of the Rolex Series.

It's a limited field event for the top 50 available in the standings and it usually determines who wins the Race to Dubai, something Rory McIlroy is seeking to do for the fourth year in-a-row!

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Venue

The Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai, UAE.

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Course Details

Par 72, 7,706 yards
Stroke index in 2024 - 71.35

The Greg Norman designed Earth Course has been the event's venue since its inception. It's a long typical desert track with generous fairways and 99 bunkers. 

The Tifeagle Bermuda grass greens are large and undulating, with a lot of run-off areas, and they're usually set to run at 12 on the stimpmeter. Water is in-play on the 6th, the 14th and last three holes. 

It's a stunning finish that has the potential to produce much drama. The par three 17^th has an island green and the par five 18th, with water in play twice if you go for the green and three times if you lay-up, is an intriguing hole, where scores can vary greatly. 

Antoine Rozner's seven-under-par 65 in round two was the lowest of the week last year but Matt Wallace demonstrated in round three two years ago, although a long track, it's a very scorable one in benign conditions and a round in the 50s can't be ruled out. 

WHAT HAVE WE JUST SEEN! @mattsjwallace birdies EVERY hole on the back nine and signs for a third round 60!#DPWTC | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/dEsDUQgJra

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 18, 2023

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 7:00 on Thursday.

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Last 10 Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2024 - Rory McIlroy -15 5.04/1
2023 - Nicolai Hojgaard -21 34.033/1
2022 - Jon Rahm -20 6.25/1
2021 - Collin Morikawa -17 10.09/1
2020 - Matthew Fitzpatrick -15 22.021/1
2019 - Jon Rahm -19 8.07/1
2018 - Danny Willett -18 150.0149/1
2017 - Jon Rahm -19 15.014/1
2016 - Matthew Fitzpatrick -17 110.0109/1
2015 - Rory McIlroy -21 5.95/1

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What Will it Take to Win the DP World Tour Championship?

The Earth Course is long, and the fairways are generous so it's no surprise to see the long hitters prosper.

The last two winners, Rory McIlroy and Nicolai Hojgaard, have both ranked first for Driving Distance and in all the years we've been coming here, 16^th is the worst any winner has ranked for DD.

Length has always been key but driving accuracy wasn't an essential prerequisite in the early days, however, over time, finding fairways has started to be far more important as the course has matured so you can't just indiscriminately bash it miles off the tee, although the first and second last year ranked only 31^st and 47^th.

McIlroy hit more greens than anyone else last year and half of the 16 course winners to date have ranked inside the top-four for Greens In Regulation but it can't be described as a really key stat given Jon Rahm only ranked 26^th for GIR on the first occasion he won here, Matthew Fitzpatrick ranked 21^st in 2016, McIlroy only ranked 47^th back in 2012 and Hojgaard ranked 28^th two years ago.

The 2021 winner, Collin Morikawa, only ranked 15th for Putting Average and that was an unusually high ranking.

The first two home last year ranked third and second for PA, the first two in 2023 ranked second and fourth, and the first four home three years ago ranked first, fourth, seventh and second.

A good week with the putter is clearly important and the six winners before Morika in 2021 ranked fifth, first, first, third, second and fourth.

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Is There an Angle In?

Anyone that plays desert golf well must be respected.

The 2023 winner, Hojgaard, won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship in 2022 and the three-time winner, Jon Rahm, has form in the States in the desert. His first high finish on the PGA Tour was at the Phoenix Open ten years ago and he's a two-time winner of the Desert Classic in the Californian desert but the two events to really concentrate on are two the Spaniard is yet to play - the Dubai Desert Classic and the Qatar Masters.

As many as four of the ten players to have won this event in its short history - Henrik Stenson (twice), McIlroy (thrice), Danny Willett and Alvaro Quiros - have all won the Dubai Desert Classic. 

The 2012 DDC winner, Rafael Cabrera-Bello, traded at just 1.4840/85 in this event in 2014 before throwing the tournament away at the 16th hole, and the English duo, Andy Sullivan and Matt Wallace, have finished runner-up in both events. 

In addition to winning this title, Robert Karlsson, Stenson and Quiros have also won in Qatar, and the inaugural winner, Lee Westwood, should arguably have won at all three venues. Westwood has been in contention numerous times in Qatar, and he's twice finished runner-up at the DDC. The same can be said of Cabrera-Bello, who was also runner-up in Qatar eight years ago. 

And finally, given Matthew Fitzpatrick and Henrik Stenson have won the event twice and that Rahm and Rory have both won the event three times, it's fair to say that course form stands up well. 

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Links Lovers Thrive?

We've now had 16 renewals of the DP World Tour Championship and three Open champions have won six editions (Morikawa, McIlroy x3 and Stensonx2) with two other Open winners, Shane Lowry and Paul Lawrie, finishing second.

The 2023 Alfred Dunhill Link Championship winner, Fitzpatrick, is a two-time champ and the 2021 ADLC winner, Danny Willett, won the event in 2018.

Rahm, who's won the Irish Open on a links layout twice, has also won the event three times so links form really does come to the fore.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Danny Willett had started to show some glimpses of a resurgence before he won here seven years ago. He'd finished inside the top eight at both the Italian and Irish Opens and he'd sat second at halfway before finishing seventh in his penultimate start, in the Turkish Airlines Open, but he went off at around 150.0149/1.

He was the first really big outsider to win, the second to be matched at a triple-figure price, the first to be described as largely out of form and he was just the second winner in ten years not to have won an event somewhere earlier in the season.

Fitzpatrick hadn't won for two years when he claimed the title for a second time in 2020 and the 2023 champ, Hojgaard, and Stenson, in 2014, are the only others to win here without lifting a trophy earlier in the season.

All the winners have been top-class players and Fitzpatrick, in 2016, and Willett two years later, are the only two to be matched at a triple-figure price before the off. 

Hogaard, who was a 33/134.00 chance two years ago, and the 2011 winner, Alvaro Quiros, who was matched at odds of 44.043/1, are the only other remotely big priced winners of the event. 

Rory was the 4/15.00 favourite last year, Rahm was very well backed three years ago, going off at around 5/16.00, and having won the Open Championship a few months earlier, Morikawa was a well-fancied 9/1 chance in 2021. 

The tournament has a history of going to the fancied players so backing long-shots looks like a pointless exercise. 

Year after year the cream rises to the top and the 12 of the last 13 renewals have been won by a major champion. 

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Rory McIlroy - tied for the lead with two others 2.447/5
2023 - Nicolai Hojgaard - tied fifth, trailing by three 17.016/1
2022 - Jon Rahm - led by one 2.427/5
2021 - Collin Morikawa - tied fifth, trailing by four 10.09/1
2020 - Matthew Fitzpatrick - tied for the lead 5.24/1
2019 - Jon Rahm - tied for the lead 2.0621/20
2018 - Danny Willett - tied for the lead 5.69/2
2017 - Jon Rahm - tied second - trailing by one 4.77/2
2016 - Matthew Fitzpatrick - tied second - trailing by one 6.86/1
2015 - Rory McIlroy - second - trailing by one 2.111/10

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In-Play Tactics

Rahm sat tied for 14^th and five of off the lead after he'd shot a two-under-par 70 in round one three years ago and that's the only time the winner has begun the event with a round in the 70s.

Every other winner has started with a round in the 60s and this is most certainly a frontrunner's track.

Rory sat first or second after every round last year and Hojgaard led after rounds one and two when he won two years ago. The first seven winners, and 13 of the 16 to date, all opened-up with a round of 68 or better and they were all inside the top-six places after day one.

Rahm was bang there at halfway three years ago following a six-under-par 66 on Friday which saw him sit tied for fifth, trailing by four, and 12 months earlier, Morikawa had sat sixth and two off the lead after 36 holes. Like Rory last year, the three winners before Morikawa had sat second at halfway and four of the first five winners here were in front after 36 holes.

Robert Karlsson, who beat Ian Poulter in a play-off 15 years ago, is the only winner not to be sitting inside the top eight at halfway and within four of the lead.

Karlsson, Morikawa and Hojgaard two years ago all trailed by three in fifth place with 18 to play but they're the only three winners not to be sitting first or second with 18 to play and 11 of the 16 winners have been leading or tied for the lead with a round to go.

If you're betting in-running, beware the tricky finish where we've witnessed drama aplenty over the years with all four finishing holes determining the outcome of the event at various times. 

The 16th is a fairly difficult par four with strategically placed fairway bunkers that really caught out Rafa Cabrera-Bello 11 years ago and the par three 17th is also tough, but it was the short par four 15^th that dramatically changed the landscape of the 2021 edition when Rory McIlroy caught an awful break...

Some times you can be too accurate...

An awful break for @McIlroyRory on 15.#DPWTC | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/nGHdWSrprD

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 21, 2021

Tyrrell Hatton was matched at odds-on on five separate occasions during round four in 2016 and he hit a low of 1.132/15 when he made a miraculous par save at the 17^th hole but with the event at his mercy, he drove in to the water on the 18^th and Fitzpatrick made birdie there to pip him by one.

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Hojgaard chanced again at 23/124.00

The defending champion, Rory McIlroy, was matched at as high as 6.05/1 when the market opened on Monday but he's settled as the solid 4/15.00 favourite and that still looks a fair price.

He clearly loves it here and arrives in tip-top form after he signed off the Abu Dhabi Championship on Sunday with a 10-under-par 62 to finish tied for third, beaten by just a stroke, but he's bidding to become only the second man to defend the title here, after Henrik Stenson way back in 2014.

Marco Penge and Tyrrell Hatton are the only two men in the field that can deny McIlroy his fourth straight Race to Dubai but if he finishes alone in second, neither man can catch him.

Penge can win the Race to Dubai if he wins and McIlroy finishes tied second or worse and Hatton needs to win and hope Rory can't better tied eighth.

Whether all that has a bearing on how Rory performs if he's in-contention is debatable but it's just enough of a factor to deter me from backing him.

Fleetwood is the second favourite, but he needs to lift himself after Sunday's disappointment and in 12 previous visits second (twice) is the best he's achieved here.

That's probably down to his slight lack of length off the tee compared to others and that's one of the reasons I'm chancing the 2023 winner, Nicolai Hojgaard, who I backed in-running at halfway last week.

Hojgaard's putter let him down a bit on Sunday, and as a result, he finished one shot shy of the playoff, but he looks very fairly priced here at 24.023/1 given his current well-being and how well the course suits him.

The big-hitting Dane finished fourth on debut in 2021 before he won here two years ago.

After a disappointing year on the DP World Tour, he was unable to attempt the defence 12 months ago, so this is his first visit since his victory, and I expect him to contend.

As demonstrated last week, Hojgaard is a desert golf specialist and he's better suited to this week's venue than last given the big hitters enjoy a slightly bigger advantage here.

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Now read more Golf tips and previews here

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