How will England fare in Group L?
According to the Betfair Sportsbook, England will breeze through the group stage. The Three Lions are 4/111.36 to top Group L and 1/1001.01 to qualify.
Under the 'England Exact Points in Group' market, nine points is the shortest price at 9/52.80, seven points is 21/103.10 and six points is 7/24.50.
At Qatar 2022, England took seven points and they took six in '18. In 2014, they only managed one point which is 100/1101.00 this summer.
Enough about yesteryear.
In qualification, England had a 100% record, didn't concede and scored multiple goals in seven of their eight fixtures.
As for the summer, although their World Cup group looks a little tricky on paper, the reality of Group L is far less daunting.
Ghana aren't the swashbuckling force they once were and have not breached the top 25 of FIFA's world rankings in over a decade.
The Black Stars' didn't qualify for AFCON 2025 and were knocked out at the group stage of their last two major tournaments.
Under the tutelage of Thomas Christiansen, Panama have improved dramatically since England thrashed them in 2018. They have risen 48 places in FIFA's rankings (currently 33rd) and made the quarters at Copa America 2024.
Croatia complete the group and are the second favourites to top it at 16/54.20.
This summer has the feel of a last dance for Luka Modric and co. They've made the semi-finals or better in the last three finals against all odds but this feels like the end of the cycle.
At 16/54.20, England to finish first / Ghana to finish fourth could be worth a look. Building the bet manually pays out at a touch under 7/42.75.
Back England to finish 1st / Ghana to finish 4th
How many World Cup goals will England score?
In the group stage, England are 1/12.00 to score 7+ goals, 1/2001.01 on to score 2+ and 22/123.00 to score 12+ goals with the Betfair Sportsbook.
By comparison, the Three Lions are 1/801.01 to score 4+ goals in the tournament, 5/61.84 to score +12 goals and 15/28.50 to score 20+ goals.
Those prices with the Sportsbook are worth a look, especially taking into consideration the potential to play an extra game this time.
The World Cup has expanded to 48-teams this year making it the biggest finals (in terms of nations competing) in the competition's history.
This means there is an extra knock-out round (round of 32) so if the Three Lions go all the way, they'll play eight games instead of seven.
The expansion has also lowered the threshold of qualification, meaning the standard of some of the teams is lower than usual. Again, I think this has had a knock-on effect on England's goal markets.
For the record, only three nations have scored 20+ goals at the finals, all of which came before England won it in 1966 (France '58, Hungary '54, Brazil '50). But under Gareth Southgate, the Three Lions netted nine times in the group stage of the last World Cup and eight in 2018.
The evens available for England to net 7+ goals in the group stage certainly appeals considering the calibre of the group. Each of the three opponents are getable, not least Panama who England beat 6-1 at the '18 World Cup.
Who will score England's goals?
Not to state the obvious but it is hard to look past Harry Kane.
He netted eight times in qualification (40% of England's goals), had twice the amount of shots as many other England players (31) and 16 shots on target (1st).
His track record at major tournaments is pretty good. At Euro 2024, he finished joint-first in the top goalscorer charts (3). At the last World Cup he scored twice, finishing second behind Marcus Rashford and Bukayo Saka in the Three Lions top goalscorer list, but he missed that penalty in the quarters against France.
At Euro 2020, he finished second for goals scored (4), one behind Patrik Schick and Cristiano Ronaldo. At the 2018 World Cup, he won the Golden Boot with six goals.
Kane's had a pretty good goalscoring season at Bayern as well, netting 64 goals in all competitions - if you include the Club World Cup.
And since his move to Germany, Kane's either second or first in the Champions League top goalscorer charts in each of the three seasons.
Kane's 1/21.50 favourite with the Sportsbook in the 'England Top Team Goalscorer' market and 13/27.50 second favourite in the 'FIFA Golden Boot Winner' market.
The 8.27/1 available in the latter with the Betfair Exchange is tempting, although you won't get the each way terms (¼ odds, 4 places) available with the Sportsbook.
What stage of the tournament will they reach?
England are third favourites at 16/54.20 to make the final, 17/102.70 to be in the semi's, 8/111.73 to be in the quarters and 1/41.25 to make the round of 16.
Assuming everything goes to plan - the favourites win their groups - and resisting the urge to drown in a sea of connotations, this would be England's route to the World Cup final.
- Round of 32: Uzbekistan
- Round of 16: Mexico
- Quarters: Brazil
- Semis: Argentina
- Final: Spain
In terms of the betting, the 1.9110/11 available with the Exchange for England to reach the quarter-finals looks a sensible play.
Assuming the Three Lions top Group L - which they are heavily odds on to do - they'll have a favourable draw against a third-placed side from Group E/H/I/J/K in the round of 32.
Back England to reach the quarter finals
FIFA Young Player Award
This award does what it says on the tin, and to be eligible the player must be 21 or under.
It was officially awarded for the first time in the 2006 World Cup. The winners are as follows (age):
- 2006: Lukas Podolski, Germany (21)
- 2010: Thomas Muller, Germany (20)
- 2014: Paul Pogba, France (21)
- 2018: Kylian Mbappe, France (19)
- 2022: Enzo Fernandez, Argentina (21)
Two of those players were from the teams that won the competition (Mbappe and Fernandez) and all bar one made the semi-finals.
England have two players in the betting in the 'FIFA Young Player Award' with the Sportsbook.
Nico O'Reilly, 21-years-old, priced at 10/111.00 and Kobbie Mainoo, 21-years-old, can be backed at 50/151.00.
Although a defender hasn't won the award, O'Reilly could buck that trend given his tendency to pop up with a goal or two on the big occasion.
The Manchester City left back scored nine times this season, six of which coming in his last 16 starts which includes a brace in the Carabao Cup final.
These goalscoring exploits could capture the imagination in this sort of market. Personally, I'll just be watching out for his anytime goalscorer price in matches this summer.
Mainoo is a really tempting price but, to be in contention, he must force himself into England's starting line-up.
He's currently 11/26.50 to start against Croatia, behind Rice, Rogers, Anderson and Bellingham in the betting.
That said, at Euro 2024 Manioo didn't start a single group game but went on to start every game in the knock-outs.
He was generally 20/1 to win the accolade at the Euros for context.
Back Kobbie Mainoo to win FIFA Young Player Award
Watching brief against New Zealand
I watched this fixture hoping for some clues on tactics, personnel and how England would cope with the heat at this World Cup.
It was 34 degrees in Tampa when the game against New Zealand and if the Three Lions top Group L at the finals, they'll have to play in Atlanta twice, Mexico City and Miami en-route to the final.
So, it feels like a shrewd move from the English camp to set up base in the Sunshine State.
Harry Kane was clinical and Marcus Rashford certainly looked in the mood.
Based on Saturday evening's game, I think Elliot Anderson has probably cemented his spot alongside Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham hasn't done his case for the number 10 slot any harm.
To be honest though, the thing I was looking out for most came before the game even kicked off.
If you go to the Betfair Sportsbook, Competitions, World Cup, All Outrights and then down to 'FIFA World Cup 2026 Novelty Specials' you'll find Thomas Tuchel priced at 11/26.50 to sing the national anthem against Croatia.
So on Saturday evening, at about two minutes to 9pm, God save the king starts, camera pans to the bench and I wait with baited breath but Tuchel didn't sing a word.
Maybe he's saving his voice for the finals.
Back Thomas Tuchel to sing the English national anthem vs Croatia
To assist the most goals
In my opinion, this is the greatest market to bet on at a major tournament for one simple reason; it's unpredictable.
Across the last six World Cups, four assists would have been enough for a player to scoop up this accolade.
Five players tied on three in Qatar and staggeringly 19 were split on two in Russia '18.
The usual deadheat rules apply and the Betfair Sportsbook is offering each way terms at 1/4 odds to four places.
With the extra teams, the extra games and the general lower standard of some nations at this World Cup, the threshold of assists to top this market could rise. But, I think this could be offset by the potential for team rotation in pointless fixtures and ultimately, teams are only playing one extra game.
So, it's almost as you were in 2022.
Anyway, this markets volatility makes it great fun to punt on and also pretty logical to take on some of the shortest prices in the betting.
The Three Lions have a few players priced with the Sportsbook.
- Bukayo Saka: 30/131.00
- Declan Rice: 33/134.00
- Morgan Rogers, Jude Bellingham: 40/141.00
- Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford: 50/151.00
- Anthony Gordon: 66/167.00
- Reece James, Eberechi Eze, Elliot Anderson, Noni Madueke: 100/1101.00
Bukayo Saka's worth opposing, he's had his worst season for assists in the Premier League across his last five. Plus missed chunks of the campaign with injuries.
In three major tournaments, he's made 15 appearances and not set up a single goal either.
It's fitting Morgan Rogers and Jude Bellingham are the same price as they'll probably be battling for the same position this summer and could ultimately end up sharing the minutes.
The same applies for Marcus Rashford and Anthony Gordon.
It's Elliot Anderson's position to lose in central midfield but attacking output (goals, assists) isn't exactly his game.
Eberechi Eze and Noni Madueke aren't expected to play major roles this summer either.
This leaves three players; Harry Kane, Declan Rice and Reece James.
Kane's price is really tempting given how good his all-round play is but he didn't set up a single goal in qualification or the Nations League and has an assist per 90 average of 0.13 at major tournaments.
James is another that almost suckered me in at an industry best price. Four assists in the top flight this season and an international assist per 90 average of 0.27.
His crossing is top draw and with the likes of Bellingham, Kane, O'Reilly, Rashford and Rice crashing the box, the Three Lions could be really dangerous.
The issue is, he's only made one international appearance at a major tournament and that was the 2020 Euro Final. James is just too injury prone, plus I doubt he'd take set pieces.
Which leads us to Declan Rice - AKA England's dead ball man - at a joint-best industry price.
He's got 20 assists in three league seasons at Arsenal and four in qualification, the latter is an assists per 90 average of 0.72.
Back Declan Rice to assist the most goals
Can they win it?
According to the odds, England have a very strong chance of winning the World Cup. They are 13/27.50 third favourites in the outright (½ odds, 2 places each way terms) and 8.415/2 with the Exchange.
They were second favourites in 2022 and 8/19.00 fourth favourites in 2018 but this year feels different.
The Three Lions improved significantly during Gareth Southgate's eight year tenure.
Semi-finalists at the 2018 World Cup, finalists at Euro 2020, quarter-finalists in Qatar 2022 and runners-up at Euro 2024.
Talent has never been an issue but uniting the nation - squad, media and fans alike - was Sir Gareth's legacy.
Tactics and in-game management - the big calls in big moments - was where he fell a little short but the appointment of an elite manager ahead of this summers finals could prove to be the final piece of the jigsaw.
Thomas Tuchel brings confidence and nous, showcased in both the imperious qualification campaign and controversial squad selection.
A few picks which raised eyebrows, and prompted clamour for some of the players left at home, but the XI expected to start in England's curtainraiser against Croatia rivals any nations at the finals.
Below is the starting line-up against Croatia based on Betfair Sportsbook's shortest prices.
Jordan Pickford (1/100); Reece James (1/4), Ezri Konsa (1/50), Marc Guehi (1/100), Nico O'Reilly (1/25); Elliot Anderson (1/18), Declan Rice (1/100); Bukayo Saka (1/100), Morgan Rogers (1/4), Marcus Rashford (4/9); Harry Kane (1/100).
Tuchel is also one of the best in the business when it comes to knock-out football - which will obviously be crucial at the World Cup.
It could be a lethal concoction, combined with the squad at his disposal, but pessimism will point you in the direction of the shortcomings of recent World Cups.
The Three Lions always find a way to throw it away. Think of Kane's missed penalty against France in the quarters at Qatar. Remember that England lost on penalties in '06, '98 and '90. There was also David Beckham's red card at France '98 and Wayne Rooney's in 2006. And that's just the World Cups.
As always, this tournament will come down to fine margins, big players performing at crucial moments and a bit of luck.
But I can't help but feel the stars might align this summer.