Top Goalscorer - Back Cole Palmer to rack up the goals
Erling Haaland heads the market at 4/61.67 and obviously it's difficult to look beyond the man who's finished as top goalscorer in three of the last four seasons. However, betting is all about odds and at 4/61.67 he's too short to back. All it takes is an injury to keep him out for a sustained period to scupper the bet. Also, this is a new Manchester City era under Enzo Maresca and we'll have to see how much their output drops from the Pep Guardiola years.
The rest of the field starts at 8/19.00 and given we can get up to four places by backing each-way, it looks a good opportunity to find a player to get onside at a bigger price. The one I've landed on is Chelsea's Cole Palmer at a whopping 40/141.00.
With Chelsea only finishing 10th last season, there's no European football for them and, with Palmer absent from England's World Cup squad, it should mean he's well rested and in with a good chance of being involved in as many of the 38 games as possible.
In his debut season for Chelsea in 23/24, he scored 22 goals to finish second behind the aforementioned Haaland. Season two delivered 15 goals and last season 10, albeit having only played 26 games.
With the appointment of Xabi Alonso and the deployment of his 3-4-2-1 formation, Palmer should line up in his preferred position behind the main striker and have plenty of opportunities in dangerous positions. He's also on spotkick duty. Finishing in the top four places means we'll get paid at 10/111.00 and that's an attractive proposition.
Back Cole Palmer Top Goalscorer e-w
Handicap Winner - Back the Bees and Keith Andrews to improve
This is a fascinating market to try and attack. Each team is given a set amount of points in an attempt to level the playing field and then their actual points at the end of the season are added to get an overall total. For example, Arsenal are rated as the best team in the league so are given zero point head start where as Hull City are rated the worst team so are given a +52 point head start.
This market was easily won by Sunderland last season with a +52 start and the season before by Nottingham Forest. The pattern here is clubs punching above their weight with, crucially, no European distractions.
The highest team to finish in the league last season who didn't qualify for Europe was Brentford and that seems a good approach to this market. Last season they were touted for relegation at just 3/14.00 and were given a +38 start. They went on to get 53 points with an overall tally of 91 points to come third and finish in the places. Despite that, they are still being given a +29 start this season and, with managher Keith Andrews now having a full season under his belt, they can push on.
They've kept their squad together while strengthening with eye-catching arrivals such as Mamadou Sangare from Lens for a club record fee. They underperformed their expected points by four last season so there's every chance they should have finished with even more last season. Finishing in the top four would still see a payout at 4/15.00.
Back Brentford +29 Handicap Winner e-w
Top Promoted Team - Back Sky Blues to be best
There is absolutely no way I could back Hull in this market at 5/23.50. It suggests this is a three horse race but I think Coventry 6/42.50 and Ipswich 13/102.30 are miles clear of the Tigers. Coventry finished 22 points above Hull and Ipswich 11 were points higher so it has to be a two horse race. I don't know why the odds aren't the other way around.
Coventry were the Champions by an extra 11 points and have a settled squad and manager in Frank Lampard. Kieran McKenna left Ipswich in the summer and was replaced by Gary O'Neil who has been sacked from his two previous Premier League jobs at Wolves and Bournemouth.
Ipswich finished second bottom in 24/25 and I'm not enamored by their transfer business. They've brought in striker Emersonn from Toulouse who only scored six goals last season in Ligue 1, attacker Daizen Maeda from Celti,c who's probably better judged on just five goals in 32 games at European level, as well as Julian Enciso who was part of the squad that was relegated two seasons ago. Coventry are therefore the logical bet.
Back Coventry Top Promoted Team
To Finish Bottom - Back Hull City to finish at the foot of the table
Given the market doesn't rate that there's that much difference between all three promoted teams, we can actually get a price on Hull on finishing bottom of the league. On top of their actual points deficit to the other promoted teams, performances were dramatically worse.
Based on expected points Hull accrued just 52 points, 21 fewer than their actual total, which was not only the biggest overachievement in the league, but also an xPts total that was the second worst in the league. And now they step up in class to the Premier League.
They haven't made any eye-catching signings and three of their first four fixtures are Man Utd, Aston Villa and Chelsea. If they start off poorly - Man Utd are just 1/31.33 at the MKM Stadium on the opening day - then it could be a long season at the foot of the table.
Back Hull to Finish Bottom
Number of Promoted Teams Relegated - Back all three to go straight back down
This bet has won in two of the last three seasons and, at 4/15.00, it could pay to back it again with a distinctly average Championship last campaign. I've already painted the picture for Hull City and Ipswich Town, just 1/71.14 and 8/131.61 to go down respectively, leaving Coventry City at 8/111.73. Whe there's every chance they could stay up, 4/15.00 is attractive when you consider they are odds-on.
The Sky Blues' transfer business looks Championship level. They've made the loan deals of Carl Rushworth and Frank Oyeka permanent - two players who hadn't been able to get a look in at their Premier League clubs - both of whom rarely make mistakes in transfer market. Cult hero Gustavo Hamer is back but his best work has come in the Championship and the signing of Taiwo Awoniyi feels risky to me having only scored five goals across the last two Premier League seasons following injury issues.
There are also concerns over Haji Wright's quad issue which may keep him out for a prolonged period. The USA international was the club's top goalscorer with 17 goals last season.
Back All three Promoted Teams to be Relegated