Monaco v Montpellier
Saturday 19:00 (Live on BT Sport Extra)
The White Star imploded in Poland yesterday, collapsing to a 1-0 defeat in Gdansk.
Not good yesterday, but that's exactly what we're looking for from Montpellier today.
Home and away, Monaco's last 10 Ligue One games have finished with Under 2.5 Goals. The last seven have even stayed Under 1.5 Goals.
Last weekend's 0-1 defeat at Guingamp ended a run of eight consecutive clean sheets for the boys from the principality.
At Stade Louis II, they are unbeaten in eight (W5-D5-L2 overall this season) and all five wins have been either 1-0 or 2-0.
Seventh-placed Montpellier have failed to score in half of their 12 away games so far. Nine of the 12 have finished with Under 2.5 Goals and 3/4 defeats have been either 0-1 or 0-2.
With such a strong trend for few goals, our suggestion is to dutch Monaco 1-0 and 2-0 in the Correct Score markets. That means backing the two outcomes (with different prices) to stakes that will give the same payout if either one of them wins.
With prices at the time of writing (5.95/1 for 1-0 and 7.87/1 for 2-0) you'd need to put about 57% of your stake on 1-0 and 43% on 2-0.
Recommended Bet
Back Monaco 1-0 & 2-0 Correct Scores @ 3.3512/5 v Montpellier
2015 P/L (1pt per bet)
Staked: 23pts
Returned: 16.92pts
P/L: -6.08pts