Cruzeiro v Chapecoense
Saturday 22:30
The news from Sweden is good. Orebro 3 Brommapojkarna 1 in the Allsvenskan last night.
We are within a point of P/L parity - within a point of returning to where we started over a month ago. Within a point of rendering the last few weeks entirely inconsequential, you might say.
Nonetheless, here's the bet that could tip us over the edge. Reigning Brazilian champions Cruzeiro are on a winning streak of seven at the Mineirao. They're top of the Campeonato again and really ought to have too much for today's visitors.
Almost halfway through the season and Chapecoense are 15th in the 20-team league. The Big Green have been at their worst away from home, where they've most recently lost 4/6. They've scored just once throughout all of those six outings and should struggle to keep Cruzeiro in sight, let alone land a blow to their hosts' title chances.
Cruzeiro have clean sheets to go along with five of their last six wins and the same fraction (that's 5/6) have been won by a couple of goals or more. Since Marcelo Oliveira made his power grab at the start of last season a total of 14/21 home wins have been by margins of at least two goals.
Recommended Bet
Back Cruzeiro -1.5 on the Asian Handicap @ 1.9720/21 v Chapecoense
2014 P/L (1pt per bet)
Staked: 19pts
Returned: 18.04pts
-0.96pts