Football Bet of the Day: Deportivo Municipal to defy the odds

Deportivo Municipal v Universitario
Thursday 02:00

Aston Villa beat Yeovil 1-0 in the Carabao Cup last night. Our bet was a push, so we're right where we were 24 hours ago.

Today's game comes from a little further away. Deportivo Municipal have won each of their last four Peruvian Primera Division home games and we see value in backing them to take something from tonight's match with Universitario.

Going back to March, Deportivo are W9-D0-L1 on home turf. The aggregate score from their most recent four consecutive wins is 10-0 and we're surprised to see them trading around 3.259/4 to win tonight. On Saturday, they did lose an away match 1-6 against a team that hadn't won any of its first 11 games of the season. However, Deportivo's away form has been poor for a long time (W2-D9-L11 since August last year) and hasn't affected their home results.

Universitario have lost their last four away games. They're 10 games without an away win (D4-L6) and we're ready to oppose them in this one. We won't be completely gung ho, however, and will take some cover offered by the Asian Handicap. Backing Deportivo Municipal 0 & +0.5 means we'll win on half our stake if the match is drawn.