Chile v Peru
Tuesday 00:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
New York City 1 New York Red Bulls 3 in the big derby from the MLS last night.
Having done Kev's work for him for a few days, now we can start on our own.
The toil begins in South America, where the Copa America returns with its first semi-final tonight.
Hosts Chile are the tournament's leading scorers. As well as hitting Bolivia for five, they struck three times against Mexico and twice past Ecuador in their group games. In the quarter-finals a well-organised and defensive-minded Uruguay restricted them to a single goal.
Peru exceeded expectations to come through a group that included Brazil and Colombia. They won a relatively easy quarter-final against Bolivia and, although this is a much bigger test, the team's confidence should be high. In particular, Paolo Guerrero will shooting the moon after hitting a hat-trick last time out. The veteran hitman has given himself a chance of matching his Copa America 2011 top-scorer title and, even if Chile go out of sight at some point tonight, there will be personal glory to chase.
In World Cup qualifying since 2003, Peru's three trips to Chile have brought 11 goals (eight of them for the home team). On the road against all teams, the Incas have lost 20/21 qualifiers, but have at least scored in seven of the last 10. With Peru conceding at least twice in 16/21, 12 of the games delivered Over 2.5 Goals in total.
More recently, Ricardo Gareca's men have scored in 3/4 so far at this tournament and, against a Chile defence that often looks shaky - and is missing Gonzalo Jara for this game - there's half a chance they can find the back of the net once more and lift this game through the goals barrier.
Since 1997, only 1/12 Copa America semi-finals has produced fewer than two goals. (Nothing like World Cup semis, then.) Half of them have ended up Over 2.5 Goals and we do not expect a radical departure from that proud history tonight.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.226/5 in Chile v Peru
2015 P/L (1pt per bet)
Staked: 89pts
Returned: 87.31pts
P/L: -1.69pts