Celtic v Karabakh
Wednesday 19:45
We fell a goal short of expectations in Peru last night, as Uni Cesar Vallejo were held to a 1-1 draw by plucky UTC Cajamarca.
Tonight, Celtic look set to disappoint in a similar way. The Bhoys are heavy favourites to beat Karabakh at Parkhead in their Champions League qualifier first leg, but we're not sure they'll have it all their own way.
The visitors have not come all the way from Azerbaijan just to open some floodgates. This season and last, three previous Champions League away days have brought a couple of 1-0 wins (in Malta and Montenegro) and a 0-2 defeat (in Salzburg).
Against some bigger names, their road trips in last season's Europa League were similarly tight affairs: 1-1 in Saint-Etienne; a 1-0 win at eventual finalists Dnipro; a 0-2 defeat in the San Siro; another 1-1 at Twente.
You'll have seen the trend passing through all of those games: Under 2.5 Goals.
Since 2003, only one team has scored in 14/18 of Celtic's home Champions League qualifiers, including each of the most recent eight.
Eleven of the 18 games delivered Under 2.5 Goals so, even if it is one-way traffic passing through Glasgow this evening, it could be some fairly slow-moving traffic.
Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.84/5 in Celtic v Karabakh
2015 P/L (1pt per bet)
Staked: 105pts
Returned: 99.32pts
P/L: -5.68pts