Argentina v Uruguay
Wednesday 00:30
The sun did shine in Solna yesterday, but on the wrong team. Visiting Ljungskile were scorching hot, while our boys AFC languished entirely in their shadow. A 4-0 defeat and we head off to the Copa America feeling more Jamaica than Argentina.
Not that Argentina should be feeling all that good about themselves. After dominating the first half of their tournament opener with Paraguay, then dominating the second half too, they still managed to throw away a two-goal lead and draw 2-2.
The pre-tournament favourites could use a positive result but tonight they come up against a defence that mostly learnt its trade in the cauldron of the Vicente Calderon. Schooled by Argentina's own Diego Simeone, young Jose Gimenez and somewhat older Diego Godin make a formidable barrier - even to a team with Argentina's offensive weapons.
Without Luis Suarez, Uruguay are likely to go on the defensive more than ever. They have some blueprints to follow too: remember how Switzerland, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany restricted Messi and co to a single goal in seven-and-a-half hours of World Cup knockout football in Brazil last summer.
With Gimenez and Godin holding it all together, they could escape with a draw - or perhaps just a narrow defeat. Eleven of Uruguay's last 17 internationals have ended with Under 2.5 Goals.
Argentina have only scored more than twice in 5/21 since they lost 3-2 to their neighbours in a World Cup qualifier in Uruguay in October 2013. So they probably can't go Over 2.5 all on their own. With Uruguay looking toothless without Suarez, we're keeping a low portfolio.
Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.84/5 in Argentina v Uruguay
2015 P/L (1pt per bet)
Staked: 81pts
Returned: 79.68pts
P/L: -1.32pts