Argentina v Paraguay
Wednesday 00:30 (Live on Premier Sports)
Chile 2 Peru 1 in Santiago last night. Like quite a few red-card backers over the years, we've got a lot to thank Gary Medel for.
The Chilean hardman's OG levelled the game at 1-1 and spurred his team-mates on to rescue the situation and deliver the third match goal we needed.
Tonight's second Copa America semi-final is a rerun of a group-stage game that ended 2-2.
Guided by ex-Paraguay boss Tata Martino, Argentina should have won that game comfortably. They didn't and, at a generous price, we're supporting Paraguay to deliver more squeaky-bum time at the Estadio Municipal de Concepcion tonight.
Under Martino, Paraguay went all the way to the final of the 2011 Copa America, despite scoring in only 2/6 matches. The old resilience is still there - the 2015 lot have already come from behind to salvage draws with Brazil, Uruguay and, of course, today's opponents - and it's allied to a better scoring record: Paraguay have struck at least once in 12/12 competitive games since October 2012.
Of course, Messi, Aguero, Di Maria and the rest can embarrass anyone with their individual brilliance but, so long as the team is not the sum of its parts, we're ready to oppose them. With just a small sense of trepidation.
Argentina scored only one normal-time goal in four knockout games at last summer's World Cup. In Chile, Colombia held them to a goalless draw in their quarter-final and the Albiceleste's total tally is four goals in four matches.
Paraguay's Copa America record at 90 minutes is W2-D7-L1 since the start of the 2011 tournament. Argentina's 90-minute major-tournament record over the same period is W7-D8-L0. All but one of those wins came by the narrowest possible margin.
Recommended Bet
Back Paraguay +1.0 on the Asian Handicap @ 2.35/4 v Argentina
2015 P/L (1pt per bet)
Staked: 90pts
Returned: 89.53pts
P/L: -0.47pts