Euro 2020 Tactical View: England to beat Germany in 90 minutes

James-led counters can expose Denmark

Wales v Denmark
Saturday, 17:00
Live on BBC One

Denmark have been assertive during this tournament and look to take the game to the opposition, as evidenced by their 47% possession in the narrow defeat to Belgium. That is good news for a counter-attacking Wales, who will fancy their chances of sitting deep and inviting Denmark forward before hitting on the break through Daniel James.

James has been excellent so far this summer and he will have taken note of how Romelu Lukaku consistently burst beyond Denmark's high line in the second of their group games. Having subsequently switched to a back three, Denmark really do seem vulnerable to longer passes that look to get in behind the defence - which is again good news for Wales.

The most prominent feature of Rob Page's tactical approach to this tournament has been Gareth Bale clipping long passes over the top for Aaron Ramsey, who catches defenders out by running from deep. He should be able to do that on Saturday, and providing Joe Rodon is again dominant at the back this will provide Wales with the platform for qualification.

Ageing defences mean goals at both ends

Belgium v Portugal
Sunday, 20:00
Live on ITV

Belgium have been very impressive so far at Euro 2020 but they haven't had any major tests yet. Things could suddenly unravel on Sunday. Roberto Martinez's high-line 3-4-3 relies on the wing-backs pouring forward, which leaves an ageing back three with a huge amount of space to cover in behind. Traditionally, that is not a good way to win in international football.

Portugal have some excellent line-breaking dribblers who can take advantage of this issue, with Cristiano Ronaldo and Diogo Jota in particular likely to pierce through the Belgian defence. Worse still, Belgium's two-man midfield could be overrun if Fernando Santos again picks Renato Sanches ahead of Bruno Fernandes, creating a three-on-two in the middle of the park.

But the most likely outcome is a wild end-to-end game, because if Portugal are given space in the transition to burst forward then Belgium will enjoy the counter-punch. Romelu Lukaku, Eden Hazard, and Kevin de Bruyne can have a field day against 38-year-old Pepe if this match becomes stretched. There will be goals at both ends.

Spanish can suffocate Croatia midfield

Croatia v Spain
Monday, 17:00
Live on ITV

Luis Enrique's Spain have been one of the best teams in the tournament so far, and there would be a lot more hype around them had Alavaro Morata not missed so many chances in the first two matches. Their furious pressing (Spain's PPDA is significantly lower than any other nation at Euro 2020) and buzzing possession football might be too exhausting to carry Spain all the way to the final, but it should be perfect for their second round tie on Monday.

Croatia have struggled to get out of second gear, playing some pretty sluggish football that focuses far too heavily on the metronomic passing of Luka Modric and Matteo Kovacic. Unfortunately for manager Zlatko Dalic Spain's ability to win the ball back deep in the opposition half means Croatia will be suffocated, leading to Modric and Kovacic being trapped too deep in the pitch to have any real impact.

All eyes will be on Ivan Perisic (two goals, one assist) and what he can do in those very rare counter-attacking moments for Croatia, but with Jordi Alba having such a big influence in the final third from the left side Spain can afford to drop right-back Cesar Azpilicueta a little deeper to track Perisic. It's hard to look beyond a very easy win for Spain.

Southgate's formation mirroring could work

England v Germany
Tuesday, 17:00
Live on BBC One

There is a lot of pessimism among England fans heading into the knockout stages, despite the fact their tournament will be defined by how they play against the bigger nations - which is when Gareth Southgate's risk-averse, defensive football will come into its own. And there is reason to believe England will be victorious against a Germany team that is mentally fragile and prone to being hit straight through the middle on the break.

England are likely to move to a 3-4-3 for this game, mirroring Germany's system and therefore going man-to-man against those dangerous wing-backs. Germany only looked coherent in the Portugal win, when Santos's narrow shape allowed Robin Gosens all the space in the world, and so if England play 3-4-3 they can block the Atalanta wing-back and prevent Joachim Low from overloading the flanks.

At the other end, much will rest on the boldness of Southgate's attacking selections. Clearly he needs pace in behind, but he also needs someone with enough bravery to break the lines in the dribble; if either Bukayo Saka or Jack Grealish start, then England should be considered favourites to calmly and pragmatically grind down a shaky German side at the end of a cycle.