England will go into the game against Montenegro as overwhelming favourites, but with the minnows having taken nine points from nine with three 1-0 wins over Wales, Bulgaria and Switzerland, this could be a closer encounter than we might expect. Here, I'll be taking a look at some of Betfair's subsidiary markets, looking to find some value based upon the two sides' likely formation and strategies.
Montenegro are likely to line up with a 4-4-2 formation, with two defensive-minded central midfielders, two wingers who like to drift inside into the centre of the pitch, and Mirko Vucinic dropping off main striker Radomir Djalovic. Vucinic is unquestionably the main threat, and Montenegro look to the Roma striker at every opportunity. He netted the winner against both Wales and Switzerland, and likes to move out towards the left flank before running diagonally towards goal. Glen Johnson has come under fire for poor defensive performances at club level so far this season and will be given a rigorous examination by Vucinic's powerful direct running.
A similar threat will come from the other side in the shape of Sporting Lisbon's winger Simon Vukcevic. He is a frustrating player but one who occasionally comes up with some great moments - he is very left-footed, however, and will look to come inside and bend the ball towards the far post rather than going down the line. A good technical player he may be, but a good defender he is certainly not. Ashley Cole might look to break forward early on, to test Vukcevic's willingness to track back.
Cole seems to be getting into increasingly advanced positions, especially in the opening stages of games when England are seeking a goal rather than trying protect a lead (he set up Jermain Defoe's opener in the last home qualification match against Bulgaria), and I reckon he might pop up in the penalty box. The fact he has never scored for England means few will expect him to find the net, but if you can get odds of around 40.039/1 for him to be the first goalscorer, it'll be a decent outside bet. Cole is currently tied on 85 caps with Gary Neville, and if he fails to score tomorrow he'll become the outright outfield player with most caps but no goals - a record he'll be keen not to have!
I expect Montenegro to defend narrow as a whole, as they are set to use two full-backs who are equally comfortable at centre-back. Packing the centre of the pitch and inviting England to go wide might be their approach, and it will be interesting to see how Fabio Capello uses his wingers, with Theo Walcott and Aaron Lennon injured, and James Milner suspended.
A combination of Ashley Young and Adam Johnson looks likely, with both cutting inside and opening up space for the England full-backs to get forward. Alternatively, Shaun Wright-Phillips or Stewart Downing might get rare starts to provide some natural width - that might be important if Montenegro defend across the width of the penalty area, and invite crosses. Joe Cole is another option.
If not, and England deploy 'inverted' wingers looking to come inside, it will create a big workload for the Montenegrin central midfield two, especially with the wide midfielders not the best defensively. This might create problems for Milorad Petkovic - a 33-year-old central midfielder who lacks pace, and who seems to be booked on an alarmingly regular basis. He's not a guaranteed starter - he missed the win over Switzerland on Friday (naturally, he was suspended) and Mitar Novakovic did a good job as a replacement. However, if Petkovic does start, backing him to be booked at around 2.89/5 could be fruitful.
Recommended bets:
Ashley Cole to score first at 40.039/1
Milorad Petkovic to be booked at around 2.89/5
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