Euro 2012 Betting: Bulgaria v England

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The Euro 2012 qualifying campaign resumes on Friday for Fabio Capello's team. Ed Hawkins analyses the odds ahead of the contest in Sofia.


England
The doom and gloom which so often surrounds the national team has been lifted. For a team which apparently had such a bleak future only a few months ago, the horizon is suddenly bright. The redevelopment of Fabio Capello's squad has been quite remarkable.

So remarkable, in fact that there is no place for Rio Ferdiand. Fit enough to be on the bench for Manchester United against Arsenal, Ferdinand should have been an automatic pick. But instead he finds his spot taken by Phil Jones, his United team-mate.

Jones is part of a group of young United players who could propel England to the Euro 2012 finals: Ashley Young, Chris Smalling and Tom Cleverley could soon be the first names on the team sheet.

If that is encouraging, hold on. We are still likely to have to put up with the depressing sight of Frank Lampard and Gareth Barry in midfield.


Bulgaria
There will be familiar faces for England supporters in the form of Stilian Petrov (Aston Villa) and Martin Petrov (Bolton Wanderers). But otherwise manager Lothar Matthaus has to juggle his resources.

He will have to cope without central defender Apostol Popov and midfielder Chavdar Yankov, both of whom are sidelined with long-term injuries. Crystal Palace defender Alexander Tunchev is picked for the first time since 2009 and there is also a place for Steaua Bucharest defender Valentin Iliev who has played once in two years.


Match odds
Matthaus, the former Germany captain, has described England as a side who "lack stability" and "have problems dealing with pressure". He is spot on, of course. However, neither point would appear to be relevant for this contest.

If England were playing at Wembley, then we could take Matthaus seriously. But they are not. England are a much more reliable prospect away from their expectant faithful, a point the efficient Matthaus concedes.

Yet even with that home problem, England still managed to beat Bulgaria by four goals to nil back in September with three from Jermain Defoe and one from Adam Johnson. On the road they have won their last three, scoring seven goals and conceding twice. They have never lost to Bulgaria.

They are unlikely to start now, particularly with the energy coursing through the veins of this group. At 1.594/7, the odds are a little prohibitive but if that drifts to around the 1.705/7 mark in a goalless first 20 minutes, it could pay to get involved.

Unfortunately, we may not be so lucky. England matches have been quick off the mark for goals in this qualifying tournament. In the five games so far goals have come after three, ten, seven and 32 minutes respectively. Bulagria are 7.807/1 with the draw 4.003/1.

Bulgaria are fourth in the table, six points behind England and Montenegro, who are joint leaders on 11.


Over/under goals
The goals tally from England's five matches reads: 4, 4, 0, 2, 4. The tally from Bulgaria's five reads: 4, 1, 1 0, 2. So it would be fair to assume that we are relying on England's forwards doing the business if we were to go over 2.5 goals.

Say what you like about English football, the youth may not be able to pass it but they can certainly defend. And Bulgaria's shot-shy attack is unlikely to come to the aid of punters who go long. For that reason the wager of the day may be for England to win to nil at 2.305/4.

That way we have the best of both worlds: the familiar cagey England performance, new breed or not, as well as something more optimistic.

Best bet: England to win to nil @ 2.305/4

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