The price to lay Bulgaria is bigger than I would normally like to recommend but it looks the professional trade, not so much because England are clearly a much better side, but because Bulgaria hardly ever score.
Indeed, the Bulgarians are close to their lowest ranking ever and are outside FIFA's top 50, behind teams like Jamaica, Burkina Faso and Honduras. FIFA's assessment that England are the fourth best team on the planet is verging on the ludicrous, given their record in major competitions.
But you would have to think they will be too good for them in this important Euro 2012 qualifier.
England beat Bulgaria 4-0 almost a year a go to the day and I just can't see them losing this game at the Vasil Levski Stadium. I would not put anyone off simply backing England at 1.654/6 but the draw is just about enough of a runner to maker the banker a lay of Bulgaria at 6.86/1 and I will be doing that for a full point.
But is there a better value bet to be had? Well on the grounds that Bulgaria hardly ever score, it could pay to back England to win to nil at 2.35/4. While the Bulgaria manager has been talking a good game and encouraging his team to 'play like Germany', the facts are that Bulgaria have only scored twice in five games, both of which came against Montenegro.
England should have a little bit too much class and if England do score first as they very often do, I can envisage it being very difficult indeed for Bulgaria to find a way through.