Hawkeye on West Indies v Australia Third ODI: Hope worth another try

Mitchell Starc
Starc is spoiling things

Ed Hawkins looks at the stats for the the final match in Bridgetown on Monday and says keep backing a 'wrong price' of 2/1 in the 'to score a 50' market...

"It's a test of punting character to go in again or swerve. The bottom line is this: only take a wrong price"

(1pt) Back Shai Hope to score 50 3.02/1

West Indies v Australia
Monday 26 July 19.30
Live on BT Sport

Don't be Shai

We've been chasing our tails with Shai Hope in this ODI series against Australia. The third match gives us a final chance to catch up before he departs the scene with the hosts moving on to a T20 contest against Pakistan.

For match one we went heavy on a Hope 50. But he didn't play because of an injury. For game two we were back in again at an enhanced 7/2 for top home runscorer. And if you'd had the wager you may well have gone to bed late on Saturday night reckoning you would wake up to a winner. It was not to be.

Your correspondent slept cosily in the knowledge Hope was 38 not out, needing probably another 20-odd to steal it in a low chase thanks to Australian foibles against spin - as discussed in detail again in the match preview.

But he was out with the lights (how often does that happen to you, by the way?) and the bet went down. Nic Pooran managed to get West Indies home with an unbeaten 59.

It's a test of punting character to go in again or swerve. The bottom line is this: only take a wrong price.
And Hope is underrated again. Sportsbook have enhanced him again to 7/2. It's a bet on the data below. He is also a bet for a fifty. With ten wins on this market in his last 19 we have much closer to even money than Sportsbook's 2/1.

Evin Lewis, his opening partner, could be due a score. Or he could be stuck in a rut. The Australia bowlers reckon they have his number, though, with scores of nought and one. Sportsbook go 20/21 that he scores under 21.5. There's an edge in our favour at those odds and although it's only 3.5% that's actually pretty big for this type of market.

Another potential wager is the 5/1 that no fifty is scored in the first-innings. We're not convinced by either batting unit and reckon the surface is getting tougher to bat on.

Top West Indies runscorer wins/matches last two years
Hope 7/19
Lewis 4/16
Pooran 3/20
Chase 1/14
Hetmyer 1/12
Bravo 1/7
Pollard 1/17

Spinners at big numbers

In two matches 11 of the 19 Australian batters to fall to bowlers have done so to spin pair Hayden Walsh and Akeal Hosein. Hosein, in particular, is beginning to notch decent numbers on the wins chart.

However, it might start to pay to look at other spin options. West Indies certainly might. They know the Aussies have a significant problem against tweak and they could really turn the screw by picking one (or maybe both) of Fabian Allen and Roston Chase.

You'd probably not be betting them in the expectation of an outright win but a couple of wickets is well within their grasp for a tie. Allen is 9/2 and Chase 5/1. The best pick of all, however, could be batting all-rounder Jason Mohammed who looks a stand-out rick at 9/1.

As for Australia, Adam Zampa was pipped by Mitchell Starc for top bowler in game two. We were on at 10/3. He has been cut to 3/1. That's a difficult pill to swallow. He is value on win rate but we fear Starc's potency with new and old is too much of a problem.

Top West Indies bowler wins/matches last two years
Joseph 4 2t/20
Cottrell 2 2t/14
Allen 1/7
Chase 2t/14
Shepherd t/7
Paul 2 t/8
Walsh 2/11
Hossein 3 t/8
Holder t/16
Mohammed 1 t/8

Top Australia bowler wins/matches last two years
Starc 3 t/13
Hazlewood 1 t/11
Zampa 5 2t/15
Agar 1 t/5
Cummins 2 t/11
M Marsh t/9

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