Ed Hawkins finds bets at 10/3 and 7/2 for the second contest from Bridgetown, Barbados on Saturday night...
"With Hayden Walsh taking five wickets and Akeal Hossein looking potent, Zampa will put pressure on himself to perform"
West Indies v Australia
Saturday 24 July, 19:30
TV: live on BT Sport
Pitch suits spin
Adam Zampa took some punishment from Kieron Pollard in the first match. He was struck for three sixes as Zampa finished with figures of nowt for plenty. Or, to be precise, an economy rate of 11.70.
It was Zampa's most expensive outing in his career. But it might not have surprised him. In previous ODI meetings Pollard smashed 21 from 11 off the spinner.
Whether Pollard repeats the trick in game two shouldn't distract us from the belief that Zampa really should do better. At least against the other West Indies players. He has a good record against them with an economy rate of 5.6 and strike rate of 27.8. That's not in the least bit shabby.
And certainly the surface should help. With Hayden Walsh taking five wickets and Akeal Hossein looking potent, Zampa will put pressure on himself to perform.
Sportsbook rate him at 10/3 for top Australia bowler. In terms of the pitch providing assistance and his record against the opponent, it is not a bad wager. But we need more than that to risk our money as regular readers of this column will be aware.
How often does Zampa win this market? As you can see from the data below Zampa is Mr Consistent in that regard. Those five wins in 14 give him a win rate of 35.7%. Sportsbook's odd gives him an implied probability of success of 23.1%. That's a massive chunk in our favour.
Sure, we have to be concerned that Mitchell Starc could run through the home team again. Claiming five wickets he looked to have West indies on toast with his very first delivery. But that was only Starc's second win in 12. Now why would we rate him as value at 3/1? The same goes for 11/4 favourite Josh Hazlewood with one win in 11.
To be clear, we are not saying Starc and Hazlewood are poor bowlers. We're just pointing out they are priced incorrectly. They are far too short. It is arguable that Zampa should, in fact, be the favourite.
Top Australia bowler wins/matches last two years
Starc 2 t/12
Hazlewood 1 t/11
Zampa 5 2t/14
Agar 1 t/5
Cummins 2 t/11
M Marsh t/8
Shai Hope missed the first match because of injury. He has recovered in time for game two, although the precise nature of the problem has been kept quiet.
So we have to point out that Hope is hopelessly underrated at an enhanced 7/2 with Betfair Sportsbook for top Windies bat honours.
We dedicated much of the preview for game one to explain why Hope is such an outstanding player. You can read it again here. Or you can just remind yourselves of the scorecard and see how hopelessly outclassed the home team were without him.
The bottom line is that Hope tops for the Windies 38.8% of the time in the last two years and 32% in his entire ODI career. Sportsbook are giving him a 22.2% chance.
Top West Indies runscorer wins/matches last two years
Top West Indies bowler wins/matches last two years
Joseph 4 2t/19
Cottrell 2 2t/13
Paul 2 t/8
Hossein 2 t/7
Mohammed 1 t/7
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