West Indies v Australia
Saturday 17 July, 00:30
TV: live on BT Sport
Philippe to get a chance
We are diverted from the data for this clash. Yes, we absolutely adhere to the rule that a wrong price is the only price worth betting. But sometimes a price can be incorrect for a reason other than how often a player wins.
So, is Josh Philippe underrated at 9/2 for top Australia bat with Sportsbook? A case can be made for Philippe as value purely on the basis that it could be time for the Aussies to split the Wade-Finch axis at the top of the order.
Finch is going well with a rapid fifty last time out but Wade has struggled to get going. Scores off 33, nought, 23 and five are hardly disastrous but they are not good enough for questions to be asked as to whether Australia could improve on their opening partnership.
Philippe has been unlucky that the Australian coaching set up has failed to bat him in his strongest position: opener. Such is their desperation to find a batter to hit fours and sixes in the middle-order they have asked Philippe to convert his skills.
It is quite astonishing that a coach as experienced as Justin Langer makes such a demand. As if it is the most simple trick in the world to blast bowlers to all parts in the first powerplay. And then effortlessly do the same with restrictions outside of it. Middle-order batting is a specialist role.
Philippe may or may not get the chance to open the batting (he has done so only once in seven games for Australia) but if he plays there's a very good chance he gets unleashed up front to reprise his role for Perth Scorchers. It's also worth noting Ben McDermott's price of 7/1 for the same reason.
Remember, it's money back if your selection doesn't play.
Allen a fancy
We had a nice winner at 16/5 on Lendl Simmons last time out. Do we go in again with him boosted to 10/3?
Well, in his next innings after a score of 40 or more, Simmons scores in the last ten read: 3-84-8-9-67-22-36-10-57-7. That's a runs per innings average of 30. Not too shabby but maybe not strong enough to warrant further interest.
From the data below we can make a case for half-a-point of interest in his opening partner Evin Lewis. Lewis has been consistent over the last two years.
We also have a similar feeling regarding Fabian Allen to Philippe. Could the Windies give this strokemaker his head at the end of the series? Some of his hitting is fantastic and they may look to boost his confidence by promoting him up the order. Have a nibble on the 16s.
We don't expect Kieron Pollard to recover from his hamstring injury. But we will take the 11/2 just in case. It would smart if we lost concentration at this point and he played, blasted it and won.
West Indies top bat wins/matches last two years
Australia top bat wins/matches last two years
M Marsh 4/13
West Indies top bowler wins/matches last two years
Thomas 3 2t/9
K Williams 2 3t/8
Pierre 1 t/7
Walsh 2 t/11
Pollard 1 3t/24
Bravo 2 2t/15
Allen 1 3t/17
O McCoy 4 2t/9
Australia top bowler wins/matches last two years
A Agar 4 4t/19
Zampa 2 3t/22
K Richardson 4 3t/17
Swepson 1 t/3
J Richardson 1/5
Hazelwood 1 t/4