The Hundred Tips Matches Five and Six: Stick with Smith to show his class

• Invincibles face tougher test

• Bowlers dominating again early on

• Buttler one to deliver at 5/2

• Fire and Spirit look dreadful

• Smith can shine amid the gloom

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Oval Invincibles v Manchester Originals
Saturday 9 August, 14.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Oval Invincibles v Manchester Originals The Hundred tips

Invincibles routed London Spirit in the opener. But that may prove to say more about Spirit than the Invincibles, who are likely to find this a tougher examination of their credentials for a hat-trick of titles.

Whether the Invincibles are good enough to become the first team to win three consecutive trophies among the established franchise leagues remains to be seen but they are rated as short as 1.674/6 to beat Originals and make it two wins from two (Oval have won six of their last seven at home). Originals would have been disappointed with their batting effort against Brave in a one-wicket loss.

Despite the ECB changing the ball from last season, which players said swung more due to an extra layer of lacquer on the ball, to help batters there is no evidence so far that runmaking is easier. Three out of three matches have seen below-par totals.

At The Oval in three years of the competition, more than 145 has been busted seven times in 13. But only one of those was in 2024. This was a venue where we really saw the ball zip and swing last season so it will be a good marker as to the ball change.

Even so, Sportsbook's quote of over 139.5 match runs for Originals looks very cheap. They are stacked with power players in their top four and it is one of the most destructive top orders seen in this format. 

For players to follow we must keep faith with Jos Buttler despite a blank against the Brave. His win rate is six in 11 so it is fair to say that the 5/23.50 is a little toppy. Mark Chapman is underrated at 10s purely on ability. For Invincibles, Jordan Cox has four wins in 13 so we will keep faith with him as well at 7/24.50. He should hold on to his No 3 slot.

Welsh Fire v London Spirit The Hundred Tips

Welsh Fire v London Spirit
Saturday 9 August, 18:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

What a game for Saturday night prime-time. Both these teams are likely to stink out the place given their efforts in their opening matches and it would be a major surprise if one of them didn't finish bottom. 

Perhaps we're being harsh on Fire but it is hard not to to be. Batting first under clear skies on the flat pitch that is Headingley against Superchargers and with Steve Smith and Jonny Bairstow having given them a rollicking start, they folded like wet cardboard under seemingly no pressure at all. Their total of 143 was made to look the pathetic attempt that most suspected when they were beaten by eight wickets with 11 balls left.

Spirit's ambitions may be limited to winning a couple of matches. It's now 13 defeats in the last two seasons and their approach of signing David Warner, on the wane, and Kane Williamson, who was never going to be suited to this truncated game, was highlighted before a ball was bowled.

The match-odds, inexplicably, has Spirit marginal favourites for this at 1.9310/11. Given that Spirit shouldn't be favouries for anything it could be argued that Fire are the wrong price. 

The incompetence from both these sides with the bat is unlikely to be helped by the Sophia Gardens pitch. There have been low scores here. Spirit managed only 113 on their last visit in 2023 for example. Unders 145.5 has won in five of the last eight on the first-innings runs market. 

Among the medicority, it shouldn't take much from opener Steve Smith to stand out. He tuned up nicely with a decent hit against Northern and would have been furious not to go on and dominate. He was aggressive from ball one and appeared to be hitting it cleanly. We're convinced he scores big runs in this tournament so will take the [23/10] that he top scores. It is a cut from 16/54.20 but that's because Sportsbook are now aware where he is batting. 

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