The Hundred Tips Matches 21 and 22: Bowlers to dominate at Cardiff and Lord's

• Brave slump spotted by market

• Henry could star in Cardiff
• Big test for Superchargers
• Go against big runs 

• Dawson catches the eye for top bat

Welsh Fire v Southern Brave
Wednesday 20 August, 15:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Welsh Fire v Southern Brave - The Hundred Tips

In a season once again where the status quo has been in force at the top of the table with Oval Invincibles charging towards the final and a third consecutive win, the outlier have been Southern Brave. Usually reliable enough to be hanging on to the coattails of Oval, Brave have been dreadful by their high standards.

Defeat by their rivals - and a heavy one at that after another poor batting display - has left them in must-win territory. But even three straight wins may not be enough to get them into the play-off. 

It is hard to understand the reason for their flop. Could it be as simple as their mojo man, James Vince, having a terrrible time? Vince's personal slump has personified Brave. Normally so reliable on the top-bat market Vince hasn't even managed a win. He has only 67 runs in the tournament.

Brave's plans were disrupted by Finn Allen struggling to get over an ankle injury. But Leus du Plooy took his place at the top of the order and has done okay, striking at 136. And Tymal Mills and Jofra Archer have been potent with the ball.

Ordinarily one would expect them to thrash Fire. But we cannot be sure of that. Their campaign is, as usual, over early but on a Cardiff picth which does a bit for bowlers under heavy skies they are a threat. Kiwi pacer Matt Henry could once again expose top-order frailties.

Fire are not the worst bet in the world at 2.021/1 but the Brave slump is very much recognised by the market here and one would have expected at least 2.1011/10. The bet of the game may be Brave under 145.5 runs as it also keeps onside the prospect of Fire's own batting frailties. 

Henry, one of the best fast bowlers in the world at the moment, is 11/43.75 for top Fire bowler and we have to get involved. He doesn't have a huge amount to beat and he could be lethal if there is any movement with the new ball.

London Spirit v Northern Superchargers - The Hundred Tips

London Spirit v Northern Superchargers
Wednesday 20 August, 18:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Superchargers can put one foot in the play-off by beating Spirit at Lord's. It would be their fourth win and would put them level on  points with Oval and Rockets, although they have played a game more. Sixteen points should be enough for third.

Whether they get that win  at short odds of 1.794/5 remains to be seen. These pages have been unconvinced by Superchargers who still look a little one-dimensional. Does their batting need a flat one to fire? And there is more of a hint of fortune about some of their wins, such as the last-ball six to beat a Brave team not firing.

Spirit, surprisingly, have been exactly that, living uo to their moniker. They have fought hard after their humiliation at the hands of Oval on opening day and with two wins have probably surpassed many predictions. Their batting is horrible with David Warner and Kane Williamson too slow while Ollie Pope is a bit of a disaster.

But this lot beat Rockets. The key could be Jamie Smith firing. If he gets going it takes the pressure off the rest and he may have an easier time of it against the Superchargers pace attack, bar Kiwi Jacob Duffy. The Spirit bowling is well-stocked with nous.

The market is noticeabky keen on Superchargers runs here. We can see that from the slash in price for some of the extremes. For example, both teams to score 200 is 60s when it has been 100s. That doesn't make a huge amount of sense because although Spirit's batting is improved, it is not reliable. And the key factor is a Lord's surface which always keep bowlers keen. Superchargers' total runs at 149.5 could end up being too high and it, of course, keeps a home batting flop on side. 

With bowlers to the fore, it is hard not to be enamoured with big prices on top bat for Spirit. Ashton Turner at No 5 looks toppy at 9s while Liam Dawson has wins in this tournament previously. Sportsbook offer 22s.

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