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Spirit runs line too high
- Warner & Williamson cause problems
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Superchargers don't convince
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Phoenix bowling options key
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Duckett may need a rest
London Spirit v Trent Rockets
Thursday 14 August, 18:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Trent Rockets have the chance to be the only side to have a 100% record after three games. And they couldn't have wished for a better opponent than London Spirit., who look like having another difficult season.
Rockets have beaten Phoenix and Superchargers comfortably although they may have now lost Akeal Hosein, man of the match in their previous game. Akeal's departure for CPL is imminent after a stint to keep the spot warm for original squad pick George Linde. Linde is still with the South Africa squad in Australia.
If they do find themselves in need of an extra spinner Callum Parkinson and Calvin Harrison are options. But Rockets' depth is excellent with David Willey carded at No 8 last time. He could prove vital down the order in tight games to come.
Spirit were beaten by ten runs against Originals last time. The fear that David Warner and Kane Williamson would get them off to to slow starts have been realised. It's a combination they surely have to think about changing and it wouldn't be a surprise if they moved Jamie Smith up the order to open. Alternatively Keaton Jennings could return to the side. Ollie Pope played against Originals and if he is not trusted until No 7 in a tight chase then the 'selectors' have their answer.
Unsurprisingly, Rockets are favourites but not, perhaps, by the margin one would expect. The 1.794/5 looks chunky and any sort of drift in the 1.804/5 region in play is definitely a snaffle. Despite that win over Welsh Fire we do expect Spirit to battle not to finish bottom instead of top three.
The London Spirit total runs line at under 149.5 is an obvious play. They have consistently struggled with the bat and playing that mark would have won eleven of their 17 at Lord's. The line for their match against Oval was 142.5 and they were rolled for 82. It is a bit of a mystery as to where the extra runs have come from on the quote.
For top-bat bets Liam Dawson catches the eye at 30s. There is little to beat for the England man here and it could be that 30-odd wins it. Dawson is a fair hitter and has wins in this format before.
Back London Spirit under 149.5 total runs
Northern Superchargers v Birmingham Phoenix
Friday 15 August, 18:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Perhaps, in time, these pages will be proved wrong about the Northern Superchargers but for now let's put it out there: they look like a fluky, flaky bunch who are fortunate to have won two out of three.
Against Brave last time out they should have failed in their bid to chase 140 and did so only to an extraordinary slice of luck. They needed six off the last ball and got it thanks to Tymal Mills bowling a very poor ball. Credit to Graham Clark, an underrated hitter, for nailing the shot.
Otherwise there is very little to like about Superchargers. They used only five bowlers against Brave and were reliant on Kiwi Jacob Duffy who took three wickets. One of those bowlers who bowled the full quota of 20 was Tom Lawes and that doesn't say a huge amount for the quality of the competition. Where will their sixth bowler come from if they get in trouble? Dan Lawrence? This is about balance and we're not sure NS have it. The batting will always give you a chance with Harry Brook in it, too.
Phoenix, buzzing after beating Invincibles in a mighty chase, really should be too strong. Going back-to-back should establish themselves as proper contenders and it does feel like a watershed game for them. A third defeat could significantly hit confidence.
Ben Duckett looks to be a problem. He looks jaded at the top of the order. With Aneurin Donald a thruster in the opening slot currently out of the side it might be smart to tell Duckett to have a few days away from it all and come back refreshed.
Superchargers are favourites to win the game and given the above we have to be with Phoenix at odds-against. The 2.0621/20 is a bet and that may tick up slightly. On a flat Leeds wicket, the superior Phoenix bowling (and wealth of options) should prove decisive.