Click here for Manchester Super Giants v Sunrisers Leeds odds
Friday 14 August, 18:30
TV: Sky Sports
Manchester Super Giants v Sunrisers Leeds team news
Manchester Super Giants have so far retained Tim Seifert and Noor Ahmad for the tournament despite the Caribbean Premier League starting. Both are contracted to the St Lucia Kings.
Seifert has been crucial as MSG have surged back into contention, managing to finish an unlikely second after a mid-season collapse. They lost three-in-a-row and they were virtually playing knockout cricket for the final three games. Seifert's hitting coincided with winning each of those.
They have lost Aiden Markram. He was replaced by Michael Bracewell. That looked a shrewd pick-up with matches on a worn Old Trafford surface. But he didn't even bowl in the final group match against Leeds. That's not the best use of an overseas slot but they have few other options. They won't leave out Bracewell for a batter like Max Holden, for example.
Probable XI: Seifert, Walter, Buttler, du Plooy, Klaasen, Bracewell, Dawson, Atkinson, Noor, Tongue, Baker
Leeds slipped to third spot after defeat by MSG and they were grateful for insipid performances from Fire and MI London to hang on to their spot. The performance by the latter was strangely becalmed considering they needed to be ultra aggressive against Phoenix.
No matter. Leeds deserve their place, not least because they have conducted themselves in the right way on-field, which is more than can be said for the disgraceful behaviour by MIL.
In Mitch Marsh they have the top runscorer in the tournament while Brydon Carse and Nathan Ellis are joint-third and fourth respectively on the wickets chart.
The bowling attack, bar Abrar Ahmed, is samey. Finding room for spinner Liam Patterson-White or pace-off specialist Benny Howell could be a smart move.
Probable XI: Marsh, Rickleton, Brook, Crawley, Lawrence, Revis, Lawes, carse, Potts, Ellis, Abrar
Manchester Super Giants v Sunrisers Leeds pitch report
There have been four matches played at The Oval this season in the men's tournament (four in the women's). Under 147.5 has come in twice. Three of the matches have been won by the chaser.
That trend is consistent with historic scorecards. From the 27 matches which have produced results, 16 have been won by the chaser. The runs per over across those matches is 9.35 But we cannot discount the possibility that, after heavy traffic across the square throughout the tournament, we don't get a road.
The Oval has, of course, loads of strips to choose from so we await the pitch report with interest for any clues. The total runs in first-innings at 166.5 looks toppy. That has won 21 out of 28. It is probably the top-ranked wager.
Back under 166.5 1st inns runs
Manchester Super Giants v Sunrisers Leeds match predictions
The Super Giants will have hope beyond hope they can have a used, tired surface. If they do, they should feel right at home. If not, they could be in trouble.
When these sides met in their last league games of the season, the pitch proved to be the point of difference. Just as it did when they met earlier in the campaign. MSG won the former comfortably, Leeds won the latter comfortably.
The reason for that is clear. MSG are set up to try to squeeze teams on surfaces which give a little help to the bowlers. Leeds are set up to give bowlers nightmares. They have it made to the play-off based purely on assembling a group of players to take full advantage of the road that is Headingley.
When they come on wickets which are a little slow, or low, they struggle. This happened at Old Trafford. It also happened when they went to Trent Bridge to take on the Rockets. Instead of being able to hit through the line, they got stuck in treacle and were well beaten in a chase. They are more brawn than brains.
The pitch is everything here. It's why Sportsbook can't separate the pair at 10/111.91. On the Betfair Exchange 2.021/1 is available on MSG. Perhaps pair that price if they also get the toss in their favour.
Manchester Super Giants v Sunrisers Leeds player tips
Seifert and Marsh will be the go-to options. To take others out of the equation, favour milestone betting over top-bat wins. The pair are 6/42.50 and 11/102.11 on the Betfair Sportsbook to score 30 respectively.
There is a school of thought that Marsh is surely due a low score due to the aggressive nature in his role as an opener. It is a remarkable sequence of scores to not go lower than 32 in eight innings. The ballsy wager is to short his runs in-play perhaps with a few shots under his belt.