Caribbean Premier League Tips Matches Four and Five: Double upset incoming

• Patriots underrated for surprise win

• Bowling attack keeps them keen

• TKR not force of old

• Pooran is win-rate value

• Kings may be caught cold

• Charles a top-bat follow

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St Kitts & Nevis Patriots v Trinbago Knight Riders
Sunday 17 August, 16.00
TV: Live on TNT

St Kitts & Nevis Patriots v Trinbago Knight Riders CPL Tips

Trinbago begin their quest for a first title for four seasons having once been all-powerful. They are reliant on storied, old winners going to the well just one more time to get them over the line.

On reputation, Kieron Pollard, Sunil Narine and Andre Russell can do it all but unsurprisingly the ticking of the clock has meant ever diminishing returns. It wouldn't be a huge surprise if Trinbago had a struggle.

There are positives. Akeal Hosein has tuned up nicely in The Hundred while Nic Pooran, who will take over the captaincy from Pollard, is the competition's most dangerous batter. Pooran will no doubt win a few games on his own.

Whether they get the points in this one remains to be seen. Patriots, previously, would have been a cosy start to a season. But they have assembled a very impressive bowling group and it is easy to make case for them at 2.568/5.

They have one win and a defeat so far but Faz Farooqi, Jason Holder, Naseem Shah and Waqar Salmkheil, a former TKR player, ensure there is no let up. Salmkheil took four wickets in the opener as the Falcons were despatched. Against Guyana Patriots lost their way with the bat, leaving 20-30 runs out there on a good surface.

More than 160 should be the minimum batting first at Warner Park. Any par line on the Exchange or match runs with Sportsbook which underrates Patriots in this regard is a fair option for overs.

All eyes will be on Pooran at 11/43.75 for top TKR bat. He has a two-year win rate of 38% so there is value there. Pollard likewise. With four wins in 22 we expect the 7/18.00 to win at some stage.

Antigua & Barbuda Falcons v St Lucia Kings CPL Tips

Antigua & Barbuda Falcons v St Lucia Kings
Monday 18 August, 00:00
TV: Live on TNT

Falcons got their first points on the board with a tight win over Barbados Royals on Sunday. They will be buzzing, then, to take on the champions St Lucia Kings who play their first game of the season.

And Falcons are not a bad wager to cause another upset. They look set to go off around the 2.608/5 mark and two games in they have the advantage over Kings who could be caught a little cold.

We are down on the prospects of Kings this season. They have lost top tournament wicket-taker Noor Ahmad and influential batter Faf Du Plessis. Neither have been adequately replaced. There is a reliance on fast starts from Johnson Charles and six-hitting from Tim David, who may still be feeling the impact of a long-haul flight. Indeed, this game may come too early for him.

The North Sound surface may be one for unders plays as it doesn't look like a track to hit easily through the line on. We may need more evidence but it is not a surface to start backing both teams to score and big milestones.

With eight wins in 25 Charles is a top-bat follow. That's a two-year win rate of 32% so the 13/53.60 provides an edge in our favour. There is also an edge on Roston Chaase for top bat for Kings at 5/16.00. He may well bat up the order and should be closee to 4/15.00. 

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