Birmingham Phoenix v Manchester Originals Tips: Raza and Overton bets at 11s and 12s

• Phoenix need win to qualify

• Originals have been a disaster

• Pitch suggests unders play on runs

• Raza and Overton top-bat bets

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Birmingham Phoenix v Manchester Originals
Thursday 15 August, 18.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Birmingham Phoenix v Manchester Originals team news

Phoenix have a small chance of stealing top spot at the last but it would require a whopping net run rate swing. They will have to do it without Chris Woakes, as the ECB confirmed he was unavailable for the tournament, something that everyone else had worked out. Ben Duckett should still be available.

Probable XI: Duckett, Moeen, Smith, Livingstone, Mousley, Bethell, Howell, Abbott, Southee, Milne, C Wood

Originals have won once in six. Jos Buttler's injury and then a failure to sign a replacement has hampered them. Asking batters to move up and down the order hasn't helped. See Wayne Madsen and Max Holden. They're a confused XI.

Possible XI: Salt, Hurst, Holden, Madsen, Raza, J Overton, Usama, Aspinwall, Currie, Farooqi

Birmingham Phoenix v Manchester Originals pitch report

Edgbaston isn't easy to call. Brave's 169 suggested a very flat one because of Phoenix's normally canny bowling. Then Superchargers flopped to 83 all out. Rockets then posted only 118. Phoenix's smarts and Originals' poor batting means an unders play seems shrewd on the par line were the visitors to bat first. But we would want high 130s.

Birmingham Phoenix v Manchester Originals match prediction

Phoenix are 1.684/6 with Originals 2.466/4. It is hard to argue that either price is wrong at this stage of the tournament, particularly when only one team needs to win.

Phoenix may temper hopes of a surge to top spot by just focussing on getting the job done. Defeat would see them miss out on the play-off to Superchargers.

Birmingham Phoenix v Manchester Originals player bets

Big prices on the middle- and lower-order make sense for a flaky Originals batting line-up. Sikandar Raza and Jamie Overton both look big at 11/112.00 and 12/113.00 respectively. We also note the possibility that Tom Aspinwall is given more responsibility with an eye on the future. He had a good hit last time and might be chunky at 55/156.00.

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