-
England must win or Ashes are gone
- Cummins back to boost hosts
- Adelaide pitch should be one for batters
- Tourists confused and under pressure
- Ed has betting strategies and Betfair Exchange trade angles
- Don't miss our dedicated Ashes section HERE
Australia v England
Tuesday 16 December, 23.30
TV: Live on TNT
Australia v England second Ashes Test team news
Australia are almost at full-strength. Their captain, Pat Cummins, will play after overcoming a significant back problem. Nathan Lyon is set to return after being dropped for Brisbane while Usman Khawaja could come back in after injury.
Cummins' rehab couldn't have gone any better. Had Australia been 1-0 after Perth he would have probably played at the Gabba but he has tuned up perfectly. Only Josh Hazlewood is absent from a first-choice XI. Josh Inglis and Brendan Dogget are the players to miss out.
Where, or if, Khawaja bats is their only concern. He probably should return to open so Travis Head can be unleashed again in the middle order to do maximum damage. But there have been suggestions that Khawaja bats at No 5.
Probable Australia XI: Khawaja, Weatherald, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Green, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Boland, Lyon
England have stuck with Ollie Pope at No 3 as Brendon McCullum's pre-Test preview intimated. The theme was that England should not panic particularly on the one wicket which suits their aggressive batting style.
Pope is as guilty as anyone in the top five, apart from Joe Root, for injudicious strokeplay so it is true that it would have been harsh to single him out. Besides, do England really trust Jacob Bethell, he without a first-class century, to come in for a must-win game? Clearly not.
The bigger issue is the lack of reserves England have brought. No reserve opener or keeper is a scandal. It means that Jamie Smith retains his place despite his cartoon-ish wide-eye shock and awe at the enormity of the series.
There is no Mark Wood. Jofra Archer's body may start to creak and he has been paired with Josh Tongue as England seek to rebuild their pace unit. Gus Atkinson is the fall guy from the 'weak men' diatribe from Ben Stokes. Shoaib Bashir appears to be unselectable...
England XI: Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Stokes, Smith, Jacks, Carse, Archer, Tongue
Australia v England third Ashes Test pitch report
There is plenty of talk about Adelaide being one for the batters. And in terms of average it is the best batting wicket in the country. And hot weather in the city (plus the locals shouting 'road') mean a runfest is likely. But it wouldn't be a huge surprise if bowlers were in this game when you consider recent data.
There was a low-scoring day Test in 2024 at Adelaide. West Indies' 188 and 120 played Australia's 283 and 26-0. The previous Test saw India and Australia fight in another low-scorer. The highest total in the match was 307. India won defending 323. In Sheffield Shield cricket in the last two years (day games only), the first-innings scores read: 350-9/228/195/307/93
Stats and trends
- There have been only three draws in the last seven day Tests
- England won by an innings there in 2010
- The first-innings average runs per wicket in day Tests is 44.8
- The fourth-innings average runs per wicket in day Tests is 30.2
Wickets by over in 1st innings*
- 0-20 - 9
- 20-40 - 16
- 40-60 - 14
- 60-80 - 8
- 80-100 - 8
- 100+ - 4
*Last 5 day Sheffield Shield matches and one Test
Australia v England third Ashes Test match prediction
The Ashes narrative for Down Under 'contests' is on repeat mode. England are 2-0 down and we are all left scrabbling around to find some morsel or nuggets which might suggests the historic status quo will be turned on its head. England have now failed to win any of their last 17 Tests in Australia. Why would anything change now?
It is true that the Adelaide surface should suit England's more aggressive, gung-ho style. But wait. Hasn't pretty much everyone been telling them to park that in the first two Tests and play with more responsibility. Now they have to turn it back on like a tap, right?
We're not sure it works like that. England's batters are under enormous pressure and when that happens doubt creeps into a game. And when that happens, they make mistakes. There is no guarantee England suddenly return to a batting unit which is full of confidence and shots, particularly when they must win or the urn goes nowhere.
What has been different about this series is that this is the first time that a visiting England captain has basically admitted his team are mentally broken. This usually happens after the series is over. So at least England are doing something different this time. Again, we're not sure that boosts their chances of batting with freedom.
This is an Australia side who are now stronger than they were at the start of the series with Cummins back and Nathan Lyon out to prove a point. At some stage a real shellacking is on the cards and we may be hitting the 13/27.50 that Australia win by an innings in each Test until it comes in. England have lost by an innings three times Down under since 2017.
Back Australia to win by an innings
Australia v England Second Ashes Test in-play bets and strategies
If we are wrong abut England's batting frailties being exposed again, then the draw price could well be the big mover. Panic on the match odds markets can be expected with big first-innings runs and we could well see the price on the stalemate collapse in-play.
Currently it is 14.5027/2 with Australia dominant at 1.558/15 and England 3.4012/5. Were England to bat first and post 400 and Australia then followed up with a partnership which pushed their runs line up t the same sort of number it will really get a shift on.
Trading the draw, then, is a good option. we will look to back at that 14.5027/2 and then double our stake on the lay button at 5.004/1.