Australia v England First Ashes Test Player Tips: Labuschagne and Smith to step up

• Lots to like about 4/15.00 Labuschagne

• Jamie Smith on side in rescue job
• Atkinson a cut above England pacers

• All the player win rates

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Australia v England
Friday 21 November, 02.20
TV: Live on TNT

Back Marnus Labuschagne top Australia 1st innings bat 4/15.00

There is alot to like about Marnus Labuschagne top scoring for Australia in the first-innings at Perth. It is a rare example of plenty of planets coming into line to be confident that our pick can outscore the rest. Win rates, his form, ground form and the form of others mean it is the rational call to be on at 4/15.00.

Let's deal with Labuschagne himself first. Jettisoned by Australia for the tour of West Indies this year, Labuschagne went away and worked on his game. An obsessive, it is not unusual for him to be honing, tweaking technique. But the break away from the treadmill seems to have done him good and he has a solid chance of returning to the international fold to build on his reputation as an elite batter.

Before his slump, Labuschagne's numbers were superb. When he burst onto the scene at Lord's in August 2019, a concussion sub for Steve Smith, he went on to also eclipse his team-mate as the highest Test runscorer in the calendar year. Four centuries in five Tests in the Australia summer followed. 

Labuschagne looks close to that sort of touch again if five centuries in ten domestic innings are anything to go by. Strolling out at the Optus should also give him good vibes. He has three centuries and one fifty in his eight appearances.

There is little for him to beat. A host of team-mates appear to have technical issues and are in a rut. Usman Khawaja has a dead weight of a back leg and poor Travis Head cannot buy a run. Jake Weatherald is a  debutant and may need time to bed in. As for Smith, a win rate of just 11% in the last two years makes us baulk at his favourite status.

Australia top 1st inns runscorer win rates last two years
Khawaja 17%
Labuschagne 20%
Smith 11%
Head 22%
Carey 5%
Webster 42% (7 Tests)
Starc 6%

Jamie Smith top England 1st innings bat 15/28.50

We expect to be backing Jamie Smith a lot this series. The wicketkeeper has high hands in case of bounce, has all the strokes including a strong back foot game which is important for Australia, plus a good win rate on the market.

Smith wins for England in the first dig at a rate of 27% in the last two years. None of his team-mates have been as reliable although we note that his 15 Test study sample is slightly lower due to his recent emergence. Even allowing for a settling to the mean the price is too big. 

But it is wise to have him on side. As discussed in our first Test preview, the Perth pitch could be tricky making top-order batting hard. The new ball and a green surface could have Smith involved in a rescue job at some stage.

That means we have a reason to swerve opener Zak Crawley and No 3 Ollie Pope, who are also win-rate options at 6/17.00 and 13/27.50. Joe Root, of course, is poor value at 7/24.50 and we're more likely to be betting that 30% rate in the second. Eyes on that Stokes return by the way.

England top 1st inns runscorer win rates last two years
Crawley 25%
Duckett 9%
Pope 17%
Root 22%
Brook 17%
Stokes 0%
Smith 27%

Australia v England First Ashes Test player specials

The best win rate from both teams across bat and ball markets from a chunky-enough study sample is Gus Atkinson's 31% hit rate that he finishes as England's top first-innings bowler.

Atkinson has flown under the radar a little since he is not quite as quick as the likes of Jofra Archer and Mark Wood, nor as imposing as Brydon Carse in stature or personality. Atkinson just quietly goes about his business. 

Atkinson should get the bounce needed to be potent in Perth and he is best suited to finding seam or even swing. He is the one England bowler who has a bit of artistry to his work and the more pronounced seam and extra layer of lacquer on the Kookaburra ball could mean he has a big game.

Price boosts of note include the 10/111.00 that Joe Root tops for England in the first and his team go on to win the match. It's 40/141.00 that England win with Root and Steve Smith both top scoring in the first.

In terms of in-plays, Head and Khawaja are shorts on Sportsbook's runs lines if our eyes see lateral movement. For England we have doubts about Ben Duckett's ability to go well. In the second innings don't be surprised to see short of Steve Smith and ollie Pope as both have poor records.

Throughout the series don't miss our in-play day-by-day guide. For now, though, you can read about player angles and strategies here!

Now read Ed's Ultimate Guide to The Ashes