Australia v England First Ashes Test Tips: England clear value for an upset

• No Cummins or Hazlewood for hosts

• England to unleash pace quartet
• Perth surface looking green - get the key pitch stats here
• Ed has beeting strategies and Betfair Exchange trade angles
• Don't miss our dedicated Ashes section HERE

• It's Safer Gambling Week - bet at your best with Betfair's SG tools

Australia v England
Friday 21 November, 02.20
TV: Live on TNT

Australia v England first Ashes Test team news

Australia are below strength with their captain, Pat Cummins, injured and Josh Hazlewood nursing a hamstring strain. Losing two elite bowlers is a significant blow.

Cummins is likely to be fit for the second Test but the hosts will be perturbed that they have lost crucial players ahead of the opening match. Scott Boland is Cummins' replacement while Brendan Doggett is likely to come in for a Test debut.

Boland has a superb record and should be a threat. Doggett has good first-class numbers and bowls front-on looking to get his outswinger going. If Australia have a late panic about their batting depth (Mitchell Starc will be at No 8), the excellent Michael Neser will be considered. 

Cameron Green or Beau Webster will play as the all-rounder. Green's return to bowling in the Sheffield Shield probably gets him the nod ahead of the unfortunate Webster. Jake Weatherlad, first-class average 37, could debut as opener with Marnus Labuschage back in the side at No 3.

Possible Australia XI: Khawaja, Weatherald, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Webster/Green, Carey, Starc, Boland, Lyon, Doggett

England like to name their XI early but it was pretty clear how they would line-up in Perth during the one warm-up match at Lilac Hill.

With Shoaib Bashir relegated to the Lions XI, it would be a major surprise if he made the team, particularly as he was absolute fodder. Indeed, Will Jacks now appears to be ahead of him in the pecking order if England were to deploy spin.

Instead England are set to go wth all-out pace. They want to pair Jofra Archer and Mark Wood, but a worry about Wood's hamstring may mean they will have to wait. If Wood is out, Josh Tongue probably gets the nod.

That's because Brydon Carse is considered a go-to operator. His ability to charge in over after over and his useful hitting may make him indispensable.

Possible England XI: Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Stokes, Smith, Atkinson, Carse, Wood/Tongue, Archer

Australia v England first Ashes Test pitch report

Advanced data tells us that the Perth pitch is much like the old Waca. It's the second quickest in the world if the height of bounce on a good length is the metric. This allied with a green top could make batting tricky indeed.

Social media snaps from the surface show a track which is barely decipherable from the outfield. It would not be a surprise if seam, swing and bounce mean we see extreme unders in the first-innings. That happened in the last test in Perth when India, rolled for 150, got up off the canvas to win, bowling out Australia for 104 and 238.

There is a theory that early on it will be tricky and the third innings will be best for batting once the sun has got on it. But temperatures are not forecast to bust 25. There is a spot of rain expected on day two. A repeat of the dry, detoeriotating pitch that we saw in Aus-Ind might not happen.

Stats and trends

• There have been only five Tests played at Optus Stadium
• The average first-innings score is 395
• Australia have won four of the five Tests
• The side batting first has won all five

Average runs per wicket in five Tests at Perth

• 44.9 1^st innings
• 22 2nd innings
• 42 3rd innings
• 19 4th innings

Australia v England First Ashes Test match prediction

Current Betfair Exchange odds show Australia are 1.784/5 with England 2.6613/8 and the draw 14.5027/2. For all the hype and anticipation, this should be a pretty routine exercise for gamblers. It should be crystal clear where the value lies.

If you're not betting England on a green top with the home team missing two world-class elite bowlers, and one of them being the captain, then you're not betting them at all this series.

Perth represents a golden opportunity for England to take a 1-0 lead. As stated in our series preview, that doesn't guarantee a historic series win because it is likely to get harder as the contest goes on. But the advantage is clear. In a match-up between two sides who look set to trade blows over the next six weeks in a thrilling and even clash, keeping key men fit may be the decisive factor.

It would be a surprise if England didn't come at Australia extremely hard with bat and ball. Australia, understandably, could be rocked by that because they might not be able to do the same. With injuries, key batters like Usman Khawaja and Travis Head out of form, and two probable debutants they are likely to be feeling their way into the series. That is perfectly understandable. 

Sportsbook's 11/26.50 that England win and hit the most fours and sixes isn't the worst idea in the world. 

Australia v England First Ashes Test in-play bets and strategies

If we are right about this Perth pitch favouring the bowlers in the first two innings, we will be considering backing extreme low batting totals for both teams. As discussed in our in-play guide, both batting units have a stinker in them and early on in the series when batters are a little unconditioned may mean this is the time to strike. There are cheap lays on the Betfair Exchange with low risk at 150, 160 and 170.

And if that's not for you then we await with interest the innings runs market being flooded with liquidity. It is not impossible that par is considered to be around the 320 mark. That would be a short for Australia and England.

It would also stand to reason that Test Match End prices are of interest. Keep an eye on the 'no' button for the match to last four days. Around about the 5.509/2 mark could be an option.  

Now read Ed's Ultimate Guide to The Ashes