West Indies v South Africa First Test Tips: Windies underrated for upset

• Windies worth the risk at 4.904/1

• SA bowling not at full strength

• Hodge and Athanaze standout for hosts

• Bedingham looking to nail Test spot

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West Indies v South Africa
Wednesday 7 August, 15:00
TV: live on TNT Sports

West Indies v South Africa First Test team news

West Indies are back in action, primed after a tough but not unrewarding 3-0 reverse against England. They are stronger with the ball thanks to the return of the excellent Kemar Roach. And what they lose with the wicket-taking ability of Alzarri Joseph, they gain control.

Kirk McKenzie has been dropped and the addition of all-rounder Justin Greaves may give ballast. Keacy Carty could bat at No 3. Alick Athanaze and Kavem Hodge are expected to kick on with the bat after they made progress towards establishing themselves as proper Test class.

Possible XI: Brathwaite, Louis, Carty, Athanaze, Hodge, Greaves, Holder, Da Silva, Motie, Shamar/Seales, Roach

South Africa are not at full-strength with Anrich Nortje, Gerald Coetzee, Marco Jansen and Keshav Maharaj absent from the bowling attack.

Instead they give Dane Paterson, the pacer, and spinner Dane Piedt another opportunity after they were part of the second-string which was pulped in New Zealand. Batter David Bedingham, well-known to Durham fans, is obsessed with making his mark at this level and gets another chance in the middle order.

The top three has been decided already and it's potentially vulnerable. Aiden Markram, who has struggled as an opener at times, Tony de Zorzi and ingenue Tristan Stubbs, form a new-look. Temba Bavuma, the skip is back at No 4.

Possible XI: Markram, De Zorzi,Stubbs, Bavuma, Bedingham, Verreyenne/Rickleton, Mulder, Piedt, Rabada, Burger, Paterson/Ngidi

West Indies v South Africa First Test pitch report

There have been only three games in the last eight years at Queen's Park Oval. We suspect the wicket will be flat in first-innings. India posted 438 there last year and in 2018 the hosts made 414 versus Sri Lanka. There are a few showers around but at the moment they don't look heavy enough to factor in to betting. The 2023 Test was drawn with a whole day of rain halting India's victory charge.

Historically West Indies have struggled in first-innings against the top sides but they warmed to the theme against England, posting 457 and 282 in the first digs in the final two tests. The latter score is noteworthy as we may be able to get long at even money for late 270s.

West Indies v South Africa First Test match prediction

West Indies are 4.904/1 with South Africa 2.0421/20. The draw is 3.2011/5. The hosts have drifted in the last 24 hours (at time of writing), probably due to the weather forecast.

But as stated we're not worried about that and the move brings Windies into solid value territory. They are well-prepared and battle-hardened from their contest against an England, who probably offered a sterner test than these South Africans.

If they can knuckle down and hang on after the first-innings, as they did in the last two Tests against England, they may be able to go on and pick up the win.

West Indies v South Africa First Test Exchange strategy

It's not often bettors get the opportunity to lay the draw at short odds these days so we will watch that 3.2011/5 price like a hawk. The combination of big first-innings runs and some rain means that fingers will be poised on the lay button from around the 2.608/5 mark.

West Indies v South Africa First Test player bets

In the last two years for top bat wins there are only two South Africa players who have notched who are available. Markram (two wins in six) and Kyle Verreynne (three in eight) are 7/24.50 and 6/17.00 respectively. Bedingham, with a first-class average of 51, is 7/24.50. For Windies batters Athanaze and Hodge are underrated on quality and they appeal respectively at 4/15.00 and 7/24.50.

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