South Africa v Pakistan First Test Tips: Rabada and Naseem Christmas crackers

South Africa v Pakistan
Thursday 26 December, 08:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

South Africa v Pakistan First Test team news

South Africa have significant injury concerns to their bowling depth. There is no Anrich Nortje, Gerald Coetzee, Lungi Ngidi, Nandre Burger and Keshav Maharaj. Maharaj is touch and go for this one but there are positive noises about the availability of all-rounder Wiaan Milder who is coming back from a finger break.

They look certain to team up Kagiso Rabada, Dane Paterson and the 18-year-old Kwena Maphaka who is all-out pace, no control. If Maharaj is not fit, bowling all-rounder Senuran Muthusamy is likely to play and give Mulder more time. Temba Bavuma was rested for game one of the ODI series but is fit fit.

Possible SA XI: De Zorzi, Markram, Bavuma, Stubbs, Bedingham, Verreyenne, Jansen, Muthusamy, Rabada, Paterson, Maphaka

Pakistan won the ODI series 3-0 with Saim Ayub and Salman Agha producing performances which suggest they should be mainstays for a long time. Pakistan don't need to rely solely on Messrs Babar and Rizwan.

How Babar fits back into the XI after being 'rested' for the last two Tests against England is tricky. Abdullah Shafique, the opener, may be vulnerable with skip Shan Masood moving up to open.

With the ball they have moved on from Shaheen Shah Afridi but gone back to Mohammad Abbas. At 35 his action is as smooth as ever but his last Test was 2021. Khurram Shahzad and Naseem Shah complete themost likely pace attack. Naseem could well be seen as attack leader.

Noman Ali, another veteran at 38, is likely to be the main spinner with support from Kamran Ghulam and Salman.

Possible Pakistan XI: Ayub, Masood, Ghulam, Babar, Shakeel, Salman, Rizwan, Noman, Naseem, Shahazad, Abbas,

South Africa v Pakistan First Test pitch report

Six of the last nine Tests at Centurion have been won by the team batting first. But it has not been a run glut in the first match innings. The last four read (1-2 denote match won batting first or second): 245-2/342-1/327-1/396-2/284-1. It is a pace pitch with only two spinners in the top 20 of wicket-takers in the last four years.

The test will be for Pakistan. Bashing a white ball around is all well and good but this will be seam, swing and nasty lifters to the throat. In their last 16 first-innings in South Africa, England, Australia or New Zealand (picked because conditions are alien) have they busted 350. That sequence dates back to 2017, highlighting the inherent challenge. Shorting their runs at the 320 mark would have been a winner 14 times and under 310 12 times.

The weather forecast is poor enough to make batting difficult, too. Rain is forecast for the first four days anf although that could change, a runfest looks unlikely.

South Africa v Pakistan First Test match prediction

With the weather predicted to be bad, at this stage the draw price ast 4.607/2 looks almost certain to shorten. It would be odds-on if we get a washout on day one. A simple back-to-lay makes sense. Double your stake on the lay button at 2.001/1 and you will have an all-green book.

There is the prospect of laying the draw outright at odds-on in-play as we do expect conditions to mark this one down for an early finish. As stated, we have concerns about the Pakistan batting.

South Africa aren't the worst bet in the world at 1.855/6. They have been planning carefully for this and one felt that the ODI series was just a distraction. If they win one of these two Tests in the series they qualify for the World Championship Final. This is a great chance to book an early spot.

South Africa v Pakistan First Test player bets

Rabada is also 9/52.80 for top first-innings bowler for the hosts.

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