Pakistan Super League Tips Matches 14 and 15: Fours to the fore in Lahore

• Big toss bias bat first in Lahore

• Backing defender blind a strategy

• Fours play smarter than sixes

• Amir a solid 16/54.20 chance

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Lahore Qalandars v Peshawar Zalmi
Thursday 24 April, 16:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Lahore Qalandars v Peshawar Zalmi PSLT20 tips

The blueprint for success at Gaddafi Stadium Lahore is pretty simple for night matches. Win the toss, bat first, collect the points. In the last 16 PSL matches there 11 have been won by the team defending.

There is a whopping gap between the run rates for the side batting first and second, 9.39 versus 8.58. The bias holds firm over longer study periods. In the last three years it's 69%  and over four (31 matches) it's 68%.

Right from the off then we have to take issue with short favourites. Lahore are 1.834/5. With the toss in their favour Zalmi are at least a trade option. We note that Lahore have won two from four and Zalmi once from the same. The coin should reduce any gulf. 

As you would expect with such a bias, it's flat for batting. It could be that the chaser is wilting under scoreboard pressure. More than 200 has been busted six times (three in the last three)  in the last 16 and the run rate is at nine. Any par line which offers overs in the 190s is a buy. 

Fast runs doesn't equate to huge sixes tallies. Sportsbook's overs line at 15.5 is actually a winner only three times in the 16 games. There are big boundaries at the venue. Instead its fours. Nine of the last 16 have busted Sportsbook overs line of 31.5 at 5/61.84. On match averages this season, the two should scrape 32 fours between them, although other venues have been more six-laden.

Quetta Gladiators v Karachi Kings
Friday 24 April, 16:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Quetta Gladiators v Karachi Kings PSLT20 tips

Karachi Kings are 1.804/5 for their fourth win in six over a Quetta side which could well find this season a struggle. They have one win in three. But, again, this is in Lahore where the team that defends is king so are we are inclined to be backing the side batting first blind.

The 20-over par line at 198.5 is a good indicator for the first of the double header in fact and it is a venue, as explained above, to be going long of runs in the first dig. In the spirit of the double we must also go long of fours, which is cheaper at 28.5 for these two teams at 10/111.91.

It is true that the power isn't quite there for Quetta who have recorded 10-11-18 this season but that's not a bad thing with bigger boundaries in Lahore. Coming up just short will be good news. Karachi have gone 17-8-17-14.

In terms of players to follow we're keen on a Mohammad Amir win at some stage for top Quetta bowler. These sides met last Friday and Amir picked up two wickets but lost out on a dead heat because of more runs conceded. Amir has an excellent head-to-head record against David Warner so the prospect of an early wicket to get him up and running appeals.

Amir has got him out three times in 45 balls. The pacer also has a decent record at the venue, returning mean economy and a four-wicket haul in his 14 appearances. Sportsbook offer 16/54.20 that he gets a win and that's a price worth taking.

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