Ed Hawkins reiterates the toss bias in the Pakistan Super League in Karachi and finds a top-bowler wager for Wednesday
"Sure, Waqas is expensive but we don't care about that when he has such potency. We think he should be shorter than 7/2"
Kings, on the face of it, have a very 'meh' record after four games. Two wins. Two losses. And of course they have all gone with the toss bias as chaser domination is total.
They key to whether Kings can defend their title is probably their bowling record. Tight and mean last tournament they have been pricey in this one. An economy rate of nine hints at a team which desperately needs the flip to go their way. Perhaps more than others.
Dan Christian, normally reliable, has been pricey. And that's not what you'd expect. Mohammad Ilyas has lost the radar, too. Waqas Maqsood has been the most expensive but he is their most potent bowler. Can they afford all three?
Possible XI Sharjeel, Babar, Ingram, Clarke, Christian, Nabi, Wasim, Waqas, Ilyas, Amir, Arshad
Zalmi are more than happy with the toss bias. They are a big average unit enjoying the talent gulf being reduced by the coin flip. In ordinary circumstances they may well find themselves scrapping at the foot of the table.
As it stands they have batted second three times out of four and currently sit top of the pile. Last time out they busted first-innings run glut trends by rolling Islamabad United for just 118. They are flying. Wahab Riaz took four wickets and England's forgotten pacer Saqib Mahmood three.
They do, however, have a bonkers approach to balance by batting Haider Ali in the middle order. He is one of the best openers in the tournament but they have instead paired Imam-ul-Haq and Kamran Akmal.
Possible XI Imam, Kamran, Kohler-Cadmore, Malik, Ali, Rutherford, Asif, Mujeeb, Saqib, Imran.
At the risk of repeating ourselves the chasers are dominant. More than dominant. All 12 matches have been won by the team batting second at the Karachi National Stadium. And big runs have been chased, too. In the last nine matches, 190-200 has been busted four times and 178-186 twice. Sportsbook go 13/10 that both teams score 170 or more. We are still keen on late runs in the first dig. Take big prices in-play for 30 or 40 in the last three.
Match odds keeps up - just
The match odds market has been slow to react to the toss bias. It 'only' took ten games before it adjusted, making chasers slight favourites going after 180-plus.
Kings are 1.804/5 with Peshawar 2.206/5. We would expect Zalmi to come into marginal favourite status if they were to bat second.
Waqas has the best strike rate of any Kings bowler. Sure, he is expensive but we don't care about that when he has such potency. We think he should be shorter than 7/2 with Sportsbook.
There are top-bat prices which stick out for Kings, too, as we look for an alternative to 13/5 jolly Babar Azam. Mohammad Nabi and Dan Christian both look toppy at 15/2 and 17/2 respectively. For Peshawar, Ali gets a 5/1 quoted and the dangerous Sherfane Rutherford at 10/1.
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