Pakistan v South Africa third ODI tips: Can Saffers outsmart hosts again?

• Series level at 1-1

• Pakistan need to match SA spin

• Faisalabad pitch one for collapses

• Lower-order batters eyecatching

• Read Ed's Ultimate Guide to the Ashes

Pakistan v South Africa
Saturday 8 November, 10:00
TV: Live on PCB Live

Pakistan v South Africa Third ODI team news

Pakistan's new skip, Shaheen Shah Afridi, has one wicket for 96 across the two games so far. It is not the start that the PCB would have been hoping for, particularly following a crushing eight-wicket defeat in game two to leave the series finely poised.

Afridi tried eight different bowlers to try to break that Saffer stranglehold. But their balance was largely pace-dominated with Mohammad Nawaz the only specialist spinner. That could change with Abrar Ahmed and left-arm wrist spinner Faisal Akram other options. Mohammad Wasim or Faheem Ashraf could make way.

Another all-rounder who looks vulnerable is Hussain Talat. the hosts may reckon they need more batting power so top-order player Hassan Nawaz is an option.

Possible Pakistan XI: Ayub, Fakhar, Babar, Rizwan, Salman, Hasan, Faheem, Nawaz, Afridi, Naseem, Abrar

South Africa's second string are bang in the contest after a strong show in game two. They were grateful to Quinton de Kock rolling back the years with a brilliant ton to make a potentially tricky chase look easy. 

De Kock hit 123 off 119 and he was well supported by Tony de Zorzi who has had an excellent tour across the formats. With Dewald Brevis ruled out of the series their partnership was vital as one suspects the middle order is weak.

Unlike Pakistan, South Africa picked two specialist spinners. One of them Nqab Peter, took three wickets. They read conditions better, deploying just the one out-and-out pacer. 

Probable SA XI: Pretorius, De Kock, De Zorzi, Breetzke, Qeshile, Ferreira, Linde, Bosch, Fortuin, Burger, Peter

Pakistan v South Africa Third ODI pitch report

The Faisalabad surface is not the road that it could have been based on the 2018 Pakistan Cup, the domestic List A competition, which was played in its entirety at the Iqbal Stadium. Four of the first six matches saw scores of more than 350 in the first dig and both teams to score 350 came in three times.

A study sample from too long ago is rarely reliable and the best strategy for pitch betting is to use your own eyes. It is not particularly helpful the home team seem to be seeing something different to South Africa. but it does appear that spin is key and that batting teams falling away (it has happened three times in four) could be expected.

in-play that means we are looking to short runs when there is a partnership of upwards of 50 runs. The middle overs appear to be the best time to deploy that plan. Even so, Sportsbook under/over South Africa runs at 240.5 does look cheap for buyers at 10/111.91.

Pakistan v South Africa Third ODI match prediction

Pakistan are no better than 1.625/8. Trawl the archives on this site to find analysis on the hosts for this series, last year or five years ago and you will find the same advice: this lot are a massive swerve at significant odds-on.

South Africa, then, have to be considered the value at [2.58]. They showed great grit and, skill and brains to hang on in the game in first innings and squeeze Pakistan. And there's no reason they can do it again.

The key to them upsetting the odds will be runs up front. The top four (Matt Breetzke gets an honourable mention) are crucial to take pressure off the rest, including Sinethemba Qeshile who is playing only his third ODI and all-rounders Donovan Ferreira, George Linde and Corbin Bosch. That trio want to be coming in to finish rather than a nerve-wracking rescue job. 

Pakistan v South Africa third ODI T20 player bets

De Kock is 16/54.20 for a repeat top-bat win. He's not one usually to follow for back-to-back efforts but his control in game two was impressive. Still, because of the surface's propensity for making life hard for new batters to the crease, we're not averse to considering lower-order big prices here. For South Africa, Linde and Bosch have caught the eye at 16 and 11 respectively.

For Pakistan, Faheem is an old favourite on these top-bat markets across all formats. He picks up wins and is often underrated. He could fit the bill again at 40/141.00, a price which is far too big. Another wrong one is Hasan Nawaz at 16s. As stated, Hasan is a top order batter and if he plays he should be in at No 6. On ability he is probably half the price.

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