Pakistan v New Zealand ODI Tips: Four batter and bowler bets up to 4/1

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Pakistan v New Zealand
Saturday 8 February, 09:00
TV: live on TNT Sports

Pakistan v New Zealand ODI team news

Pakistan begin preparation as 'hosts' for the Champions Trophy with India staging their own games in the UAE. Points of interest include their opening combination and selection of frontline spinners.

Fakhar Zaman, fresh from ILT20, could be paired with Usman Khan, Babar Azam or Tayab Tahir. An injury to Saim Ayub has forced them to seek alternatives. 

Abrar Ahmed looks likely to be their main tweaker. He is the only speiclaist in the squad so unless Pakistan pack their batting and rely on spin from Salman Agha, Kamran Ghulam and Khushdil Shah, he plays.

Possible Pakistan XI: Fakhar, Usman/Tahir, Babar, Ghulam, Rizwan, Shakeel, Salman, Afridi, Naseem, Rauf, Abrar

Kane Williamson comes back into the Kiwi team for his fifth game in the format in the last two years. It is wise to put aside thoughts about his T20 relevance. ODI is suited to his style. 

Otherwise it is a typically robust Kiwi team. Rachin Ravindra and Daryl Mitchell have excellent run records in Asia while Will Young is their Mr Consistent. With the ball Mitch Santner will be their main spinner, supported by part-timers in Ravindra, Michael Bracewell and Glenn Phillips.

There could be a role for Mark Chapman, too, if they prefer him to the medium pace of all-rounder Nathan Smith. In short, the Kiwis will bat deep. 

Possible New Zealand XI: Young, Ravindra, Williamson, Mitchell, Latham, Phillips, Bracewell, Santner, Smith, Henry, O'Rourke

Pakistan v New Zealand ODI pitch report

The Lahore track has been a cracker in T20 for batters. In ODI in the last six matches the run rate has been just under six and three of those first-innings have come in over 310.

There is no significant toss bias in day-nighters with 23 of 41 won by the team batting first. 

Pakistan v New Zealand ODI match prediction

Pakistan are 1.618/13 for the win in the first game of the tri-series, which also involves South Africa. The Kiwis are 2.608/5. That's a big gap and it reminds us of one of cricket betting's golden rules: don't trust Pakistan at odds-on.

And not just odds-on. These are skeletal odds about the hosts. What may be driving the price is New Zealand's poor World Cup performance and subsequent defeat in a series in Sri Lanka. Certainly the World Cup was disappointing but they are a team in transition. The Sri Lanka loss was down to a unit at below-strength.

Man for man they more than match Pakistan. As stated, New Zealand's batting line-up competes and in Matt Henry, one of the best in the world in this format, and Will O'Rourke, they have solid pace options. They are more than capable of springing a surprise and should at least trade as favs.

Pakistan v New Zealand ODI player bets

There are lots win-rate options for batters to follow.  Babar Azam is not one of them with a poor return of just four wins in his last 27. Fakhar has five wins in 16 and is value at 10/34.33 with Sportsbook. Mohammad Rizwan is also a shout at 5/16.00 with a win rate of 23% in the last two years.

For the Kiwis, Young's return rate of 31% means he is underrated at 4/15.00. With the ball, Henry (30%) is reliable at 23/103.30 while Haris Rauf's return rate of 29% (just pipping Shaheen Afridi) means we are involved at Sportsbook's 3/14.00. 

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