Major League Cricket FInal Tips: LA brains can trump Freedom brawn

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Sunday 19 July, 00:30
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Los Angeles Knight Riders v Washington Freedom MLC Tips

Washington Freedom have a shot at redemption in the MLC final after making it to the showpiece for the third time the hard way. Last season they dominated and topped the league ladder, only to slip at the last hurdle losing to MI New York, who chanced their luck through the play-offs.

Now it is Freedom who have taken the scenic route. They gained revenge over MINY in the first eliminator and then outscored San Francisco Unicorns, this season's league winner, in the last. They come with a clear strategy: we will score more than you.

That's because the one thing they cannot do is keep it tight in the field. They sit rock-bottom of the bowling economy charts. But they are soaring at the top of the bat strike rate stats. This is why they chased an improbable 266 against MINY and held on to defend 239 against Unicorns.

It is often the case that a one-dimensional team can make it deep into a tournament. But they don't often get over the line. At some stage that inability to be smart in the field costs them. Could this be the game?

Well, if anyone can stop this batting line-up it is LA. After MINY's implosion in the eliminator they are now the most economical team in the tournament. The No 1 bowling outfit. They concede an average of 8.14 runs per overs, compared to Washington's 9.96. It is a ridiculous, massive gulf.

There is a win for LA on the head-to-head, restricting Freedom to 174. They lost the other one, though, when their own batting flopped, being razed for 108. Unfortunately for LA there's a big gap in terms of batting power. They are the fourth-quickest (or third slowest). Freedom's cumulative strike rate is 156, compared to LA's 136.

The key for LA, who play in their first final after three seasons of underachievement, is their West Indian trio. If Jason Holder, Andre Russell and Sunil Narine are focussed and motivated, they should be too smart for Freedom. It is possible that they could panic if they don't get their way in terms of free-scoring, having been a little too reliant on Steve Smith and Andries Gous.

Given that we always favour a more economical bowling team (brains) over batting power (brawn) it is relatively easy to get on board with LA because they are rated as the outsider. It's another characteristic that the markets favour the batting teams. Sportsbook offer even money.

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