New Zealand v Australia Third T20 Tips: bets at 13/2 and 7/1 for series finale

• Kiwis not big enough

• Short could reprise Strikers role

• Keep faith with Chapman

New Zealand v Australia
Sunday 25 February, 00.00
TV: Live on TNT

New Zealand v Australia Third T20 team news

New Zealand may not risk Devon Conway and Rachin Ravindra, both of whom missed the defeat in game two with a finger and knee injury respectively. A call-up may be incoming

Conway's injury meant he didn't bat with Mitchell Santner moving up to No 3, a bizarre move considering batting power like Glenn Phillips, Josh Clarkson and Mark Chapman at their disposal. Not that it made any difference. Phillips could keep if Conway is out.

There's no Tim Southee (a blessing given how he lost them the first match) with Trent Boult available again.

Possible XI: Young, Allen, TBC, Phillips, Chapman, Clarkson, Santner, Milne, Sodhi, Ferguson, Boult

Australia will surely ring the changes with the series won. David Warner, pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood could be tested.

Warner's opening slot should go to Matt Short, who will relish the opportunity to bring his Big Bash form. Spencer Johnson should get a run out with Mitchell Starc also liable to come back in.

There could be further changes with Glenn Maxwell stepping aside for Marcus Stoinis and Steve Smith coming in for Josh Inglis.

Possible XI: Head, Short, M Marsh, Smith, Stoinis, David, Wade, Starc, Ellis, Zampa, Johnson

New Zealand v Australia Third T20 pitch report

Eden Park reverted to the formbook in terms of runscoring for the second match despite New Zealand's 226 against Pakistan in January and a tie at 196 (v Sri Lanka) last April, bowlers were to the fore again. In ten from 15 of the first-innings not affected by rain the score has come in under 175.5.

With rain around again, bowling conditions could be useful. The first-innings runs line is settled with five overs bowled and not to be confused with the 20-over par line.

One trend was busted, though, with Australia defending 174. They became only the fourth in 15 to win batting first.

New Zealand v Australia Third T20 match odds

New Zealand are 2.727/4 with Australia 1.548/15. That price about the hosts is not the biggest of the series and it is hard to understand why they've not drifted significantly.

In the first match they should have won the game but for a complete lack of nerve when the game was in their pocket. Alas, their reputation as the real chokers of the world game remains deserved.

They then produced a stinker in game two, letting the Aussies off the hook at 138 for seven before producing a pathetic effort with the bat, being bowled out for 102. They have to be considered unbackable unless they have the toss bias in their favour.

New Zealand v Australia Third T20 player bets

Short broke records in the opening berth for Adelaide in the Big Bash. It would be a major surprise if he wasn't afforded the opportunity to stake his claim in his best position. The 7/18.00 on offer from Sportsbook is a wager purely because we think he will open.

For win rates rationale Glenn Maxwell fits the bill but only just at a cut to 7/24.50. He is giving a 1.8% edge on two-year form. Money back if he doesn't play.

For the Kiwis, Mark Chapman has been cut from 8/19.00 to 7/18.00 and now to 13/27.50. It's still value, though, as he has won five from 25. We have to mention Santner's price at 14/115.00 given the possibility he bats at No 3 again.

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