International League T20 Tips Matches Three and Four: 17/2 top bowler standout

• Emirates could be vulnerable

• Big chase bias at both venues

• Afzal Khan hugely underrated

• Vipers off to winning start

• Read the ILT20 team guide HERE

Gulf Giants v MI Emirates
Thursday 4 December, 14:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Gulf Giants v Mumbai Emirates ILT20 tips

This is a classic contest between two teams with differing reputations; Emirates are the fashionable with the all the riches, Giants are the unfashionable with the rags. Literally in Giants' case as the prop up the outright betting market.

Emirates, as usual, are favourites for the title and that is largely down to the potential impact of Nic Pooran who can win a game on his own in a matter of minutes. Jonny Bairstow has also been added to a squad captained by franchise legend Kieron Pollard. 

The match odds market, like the winner odds, is swayed by big names and it is no surprise to see Emirates installed as short favourites. An early show on the exchange has them at 1.444/9. Sportsbook go 4/71.57. Just because it is expected, however, doesn't mean we have to agree with it.

For all the batting power of Emirates, the bowling unit is unlikely to strike fear into opposition hearts. Faz Farooqi stands out but there are opportunities to score runs against the rest. They have lost 16-wicket Alzarri Joseph from last season, too.

Giants are workmanlike. They have excellent plans with the ball and have good numbers on economy. They have batters who aim to stick in the game like James Vince and Gerhard Erasmus. Pathnum Nissanka, a late addition, and Azmatullah Omarzai add the potential for chaos.

With a toss bias in play in Dubai at night (19 wins for the chaser from 27) we have to recognise that the perceived gulf between the two probably isn't as big. A gamble on Giants, then, with the toss in their favour makes sense.

Pooran and Farooqi have win rates at 38% and 42% respectively in the last two years in this competition with bat and ball. We will wait to see where 11/43.75 Pooran bats and hope we don't miss out. Farooqi is 3/14.00.

The standout value, however, is Gulf bowler and UAE homegrown player Aayan Afzal Khan for most GG wickets at 17/29.50. It's a big underestimation of his ability in the market. He has a 28% win rate. The 20-year-old is green, of course, but his brand of SLA spin is dangerous. Emirates could also be loaded up with right handers meaning Afzal spinning the ball away makes him more dangerous 

Desert Vipers v Abu Dhabi Knight Riders
Friday 5 December, 14:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Desert Vipers v Abu Dhabi Knight Riders ILT20 tips

Vipers got off to a winning start by gaining revenge over Capitals for beating them in last year's final. It was a cosy win no doubt aided by that Dubai toss bias.

This time they find themselves in Sharjah and the stats suggest the flip is crucial. Eleven of the 15 ILT20 matches have been won by the team batting second. Knight Riders were in action in that game against Warriors in that game and caused a bit of a dhock with an easy win after posting a whopping 233.

Still, rather surprisingly Vipers are chunky outsiders at 2.265/4. We're not hugely enamoured with them but would trust their efficient approach over ADKR chaos any day of the week. they are a strong bet with the chase bias in their favour. 

Fakhar Zaman is one to watch for Vipers top bat at 3s. He came into the series with a two-year win rate of 22% in the comp. He at least moved closer to the win zone after a blank against Capitals.