All things considered the odds on the Sunrisers winning again are very decent, with a David Warner 50 also very worthy of a punt, says Jamie Pacheco.
"After a slow start, Warner has now scored back-to-back fifties. He’ll have few better chances to make it three in a row than against arguably the weakest attack in the tournament at a high-scoring ground."
Sunrisers Hyderabad v Rajasthan Royals
Sunday October 11, 11:00
Live on Sky Sports Cricket
Sunrisers in good shape despite injuries
It's been something of a mixed season for a side who's normally so reliable. They have admittedly had their share of bad luck with first Mitchell Marsh and then Bhuvi Kumar getting injured; both were ruled out of the tournament.
If you're going to lose players to injury, they wouldn't have wanted it to be those two. Not only is Kumar Indian but this is a regular in all of India's teams that we're talking about, so a real class act.
As for Marsh, he was meant to be what every team tries to have: an overseas all-rounder providing that all-important balance. With him gone as well as Kumar, they're a bit limited in terms of bowling options because Kane Williamson, who they've decided to batting in to strengthen their batting, rarely bowls.
Then again, things all become a lot easier when David Warner and Jonny Bairstow both fire at the top of the order. Against the Kings XI, Bairstow got 97 and Warner 52 and you're not going to lose many games when your opening partnership scores that many between them. With the ball, Rashid Khan continues to be excellent, finding his best form after a couple of somewhat indifferent seasons.
Will Stokes be ready to play?
It's not so easy trying to find new things to say about a side who just keeps on losing.
Friday's match was yet another example of a game that they could easily have won, should at least have run close and at the very minimum should have lost by no more than 10 runs. In the end, they did none of those.
After having the Capitals in trouble early on at three wickets down, they ended up conceding far too many in the death overs and having lost three early wickets of their own, they were always big outsiders to chase down that score. Given it wasn't a bad wicket at all, they really shouldn't have fallen almost 50 runs short in the end. The simple truth is that bar Jofra Archer, no-one at the Royals has been good on a regular basis this season.
Those good early knocks from Sanju Samson and Steve Smith seem a long away away now and Jos Buttler hasn't really made the impact many were expecting so far.
Ben Stokes is finally available and they certainly need him, assuming he's deemed to be fit enough. But even then, his return creates a problem. It will most likely be Andrew Tye making way and given Stokes hasn't bowled so much of late and you can see how the Royals' bowling will be weakened further, the last thing they need.
5/61.85 on the Sunrisers isn't a bad price at all. They've dealt with those two injury blows well, have arguably the best opening partnership of any at the tournament and whatever good start the opposition might get with the ball, they'll have to deal with for overs of Rashid Khan at some stage. Given the Afghan twirler's economy rate is currently 4.83 and you can see how that's a huge stumbling block in terms of setting a good total or chasing one against this lot.
This match is played in Dubai, the second-highest scoring ground of the three in the UAE, and the Royals' best chance is probably to just go very aggressively at them if they get to bat first and then rely on scoreboard pressure. But the Hyderabad attack may well stop them from doing that and the Royals have struggled badly in chases, so even if the toss goes against the Sunrisers, it may not even make that much of a difference.
Rahul Tewatia top scored for the Royals last time out with 38 batting at 6. Given this has not been an easy tournament to call so far, you'll forgive me for reminding you that we backed him at a huge 14/1 in that one. By all means read the full rationale here but he gist of it was that we can't really trust the Royals ' top order and that some big-priced players in that middle order aren't without their chances.
We're certainly not going in on Tewatia again, especially not now that he's been cut to 8/1, but Mahipal Lomror (11/2) and even Jofra Archer (45/1) could be worth a look.
After a slow start, Warner has now scored back-to-back fifties.
He'll have few better chances to make it three in a row than against arguably the weakest attack in the tournament at a high-scoring ground.
He scored 37 and 69 against them last season so clearly knows how to get runs against them. The 9/4 he gets to 50 will do us just fine.
JAMIE'S 2020 IPL P&L
Returned: 23.74 pts
Back Sunrisers Hyderabad to win @ 5/61.85
Back David Warner to score a 50 @ 9/4